The role of productive Sanitation for global

sustainabilityJohan Rockström

Executive Director

23-04-20Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre

A biosphere shaped by humanity

Potsdam Memorandum 10th October 2007

”Is there a ”third way” between environmental destablisation and persisting under-development? Yes, there is, but this way has to bring about, rapidly and ubiquituously, a thorough re-invention of our industrial metabolism – the Great Transformation. This is an awesome challenge, yet we have one comparative advantage over all previous generations: an incredibly advanced system of knowledge production that can be harnessed, in principle, to co-generate that transformation together with courageous political leaders, enlightened business executives and civil society at large”

Globalisation of the EnvironmentFishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand

Water and food to attain the MDGs

2200 km3/yr “new” water 2005-2015

Source Nutrients Production System Consumption ”Waste” load to aquatic ecosystems

Closing the Nutrient Loop

The System dilemma

Oil Price

”Sustainable” biofuel supply

Wealth driven diet shifts

Ecosystem ServicesThe wealth generated for human beings

Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentKey messages

60 % of analysed ecosystem services degraded over the past 50 years

Agriculture the major driver behind ecosystem change

The Challenge of meeting food demands on sustainable ground

New Green-Green Revolution Focus on small-scale agriculture in

developing countries – Triply Green Revolution

Agricultural revolution in integrated soil-water-crop management necessary

Nutrient Recycling and Agricultural productivity Largest potential in sub-Saharan Africa (return

80 – 100 % of current fertiliser use) Developing countries – large potential to return

substantial volumes of macro-nutrients (2-3 kg P, 10-15 kg N)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0 250 500 750 1000 1250

Rainfall (mm yr-1)

Gra

in y

ield

(kg

ha-1

)

Farmers yield - highrainfallFarmers yield - lowrainfallYields without nutrientdeficitSimulated waterlimited production

Dynamics of Water

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

0 2 4 6 8 10

Yield (t/ha)

Wat

er p

rod

uct

ivit

y (m

3/to

n)

Pandey et al.

Dancette, 1983

Stewart et al., 1975

Rockstrom et al., 1998

Save 1500 km3/yr ~ Present Consumptive Use in World Irrigation

C SOURCES AND SINKS (Gt/yr)

Ind

ust

ry7

Land U

se C

hang

e

1.6

Volc

anoes

0.08

Weath

eri

ng

0.19

120

Ph

oto

syn

the

sis

2.7

Incr

ease

d U

pta

ke b

y

Pla

nts

120

Resip

irati

on

LAND

Adapted from New Scientist 19 May 2007

The potential ”flip” of the Baltic Sea

A vulnerable Social-ecological system under extreme stress

23-04-20

Adaptation to Climate ChangeAn urgent development challenge

Agrarian revolutionIntegration water, soil, nutrients

CA

WHEcoSan

Concluding remarks Huge global challenge of a new Green-Green-

Green revolution Globalisation and the Planetary phase of

sustainability requires new thinking on the future of agriculture

Small-holder farmers in tropical developing countries in focus

Closing the sanitation loop AND integrating with innovations in water and land management can provide the key to a new green revolution