Post on 06-Feb-2018
The Role of Foresight in the Policy-Making Process
Policy Facilitating and Policy informingInherent tension or two sides of the coin?
Background & brainstorming presentation
Philine Warnke, Olivier Da Costa, Fabiana Scapolo
FOR-LEARN Mutual Learning WorkshopSeville, 2nd December 2005
Aim of the 3 FOR-LEARN “Mutual Learning”workshops
How can Foresight be useful for policy making?Impact will only be achieved when
Real needs are met but alsoWhen they are met in a suitable way
Therefore crucial to understandPolicy needsChallenges in fulfilling these needs arising from the current nature and context of policy making
Based on this understanding we aim to derive some recommendations on the conceptualisation and practises of Foresight for policy-making.
Content
1. Why re-consider impact of Foresight?2. Foresight as “policy-facilitating”3. Foresight as “policy-informing”4. Tensions / trade-offs between different functions?5. Approaches to address this tension:
SeparationIntegrationTranslation
6. Discussion
1 Why re-consider impact of Foresight?
Long-standing experience in Foresightreview of lessons learnedimpact assessment
Shifting balance between product and process calls for rethinking the impact on policyChanges in context of policy calling for new policy support tools
Need for systemic instruments
Drivers for the need for systemic instrumentsCentral role of networks and interfaces within knowledge societyInsight into co-evolution between technology and societal context
• Broadening of decision making proceduresMulti level governance
Focus of systemic instruments (Smits & Kuhlmann 2004)Management of interfacesFacilitate new combinations of elements within a systemProviding a platform for learning and experimentingProviding an infrastructure for (distributed) strategic intelligenceStimulating demand articulation and common visions
Benefit for policyEnhancing capability for self-organisationFacilitating policy implementation
Foresight as a systemic instrument
Foresight is fulfilling many of the functions of systemic instrument such as
Establishing linkagesBuilding joint visionsProviding learning platformsPromoting new combinations between elements
Foresight is a “promising candidate” to be used as a systemic instrument
Contributions of Foresight to the policy-making process
Providing forward-looking intelligence for policy conceptualisation and design (“policy-informing”);Building common ground, links, interfaces and visions among and across actors and stakeholders within a certain policy arena to enhance the capability of systems to change (“policy-facilitating”/tuning/ mediating / wiring up???.).Additional
Democratic dimensionSymbolic functions
Foresight Functions
Policy
ArenaAnticipatory intelligenceRecommendations
Links
Policy Facilitating
Policy informing
Distributed Intelligence
Distributed IntelligenceJoint Learning Platform
Joint Vision
2 Foresight as policy-facilitating
Building common groundEstablishing linkages & interfacesBuilding joint visionsProviding learning platformsPromoting new combinations between elements
Creating distributed intelligence
Policy benefit: Enhanced capability of systems to change and thereby to react to future challenges
Challenges of “policy-facilitating”
Assumed influence on policy decision making one of the main motivating factors for actors to engage in the process
Coming together for the sake of it is not sufficientDanger that lobbies dominate the process (Rémi Barré)Policy makers are “disconnected” and may question the legitimacy of the exerciseOther instruments may be better suited to orient stakeholders in a certain direction (e.g. transition management)Normal channels of democratic decision making might be put at risk (Rémi Barré)
3 Foresight as “policy-informing”
Providing forward-looking intelligence for policy conceptualisation and design
Challenges of “policy-informing” I
Under severe time pressureInformation overload,
not always reliablenot always relevant
Uncertainty, speed of change Difficulty to switch modes “urgency focussed” “long-term overview”Increasing complexity of issues
Multi-dimensional: S&T, cultural & social, political, economic, environmentalInter-connection, inter-dependencyMulti-causal, good old fashioned “control system” not applicable“You can never change one thing”
Challenges of “policy-informing” II
Policy makers do not make rational choices based on pre-existent objectives but objectives are continuously adapted in the process of decision making (Menendez, Cabello, Garcia)Reduced ability of single policy actor to influence decision leads to reduced motivation to engage in intelligence collection (Menendez, Cabello, Garcia)If legitimating/symbolic function dominates the need for information gathering, the link to decision making will be weak (Menendez, Cabello, Garcia)
4 Tensions / trade-offs between different functions?
Process benefits are calling for wide participation but the wider the range of stakeholders, the more difficult it is to derive one coherent set of intelligence (Rémi Barré: trade off between extensiveness and intensiveness)
Conflicting viewpoints and conflicts of interest in a process-oriented exercise make it difficult to provide consensual recommendationsVisions of actors are not necessarily useful for policy as there are different considerations for policy makers to be taken into account Lack of knowledge of policy process may result in somewhat “naïve”recommendationsSymbolic function (rational intelligence based decision making) is reduced if “no” intelligence is produced (Cecilia Cabello Valdes)
Rémi BarréTrade-off “Intensiveness” / “extensiveness”
ExtensivenessNumber and variety of
persons involvedRef: Spanish Foresight conf
May 2002
IntensivenessCompleteness of learning
cycle
“Societal”Foresight
“Professional-analytic”Foresight
Possible consequences for Foresight exercises
Design is struggling to follow diverse objectivesExcessive expectations lead to disappointment and discredit of Foresight as a policy-support methodology
E.g. policy-makers expecting figures and rankings and indicators and receiving networks and common visions
SeparationTwo types of exercise
R&D community Industry
Civil Society
Policy
“Societal”Foresight
E.g.:Rémi BarréWallonie Exercise
“Professional-analytic”Foresight
IntegrationPolicy-makers part of the process
R&D community Industry
Civil Society
Policy
Foresight embedded into the policy-making
process
E.g.: Matthias Weber “adaptive policy
strategy”
TranslationOutcome of participatory Foresight is “translated to policy-
makers”
Policy
Arena
• Anticipatory intelligence• Recommendations
Distributed Intelligence
Joint Visionlinks
Interface
•Olivier Da Costa: “complexity reducing roadmaps”•Arie Rip: “Narrative scripts”
Bottleneck in the transmission of knowledgefrom the Society / Academy / Industry
to policy-making
Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry
(over)simplification and formatting for the messages to go through: ‘indicators’, ranking (universities, transparency...)
Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis
Intelligence has nothing to do with politics.
Winston Churchill
Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it,
misdiagnosing it and then misapplying the wrong
remedies.Groucho Marx
Ref: Prague methodologyworkshop October 2005
Translation
Rationale: Creating special interfaces from Foresight to policy such asMediators transmitting complexity to policy-makers
Graphical elements: roadmapping…Narrative scripts: Scenarios for Ambient Intelligence…Multimedia tool: Visions Project (Venice 2050)…Interactive website: FOR-LEARN…
Policy experts cooperating with the Foresight team advising on policy needs
Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis
Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry