The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?

On the Minds of On the Minds of China’s Leaders…China’s Leaders…

Significant leadership change in 2012

National security Stability & control Economic growth Awareness of challenges/weaknesses

A “Jasmine Spring”?A “Jasmine Spring”?

On the minds of On the minds of China’s leaders, China’s leaders,

cont’d.cont’d.

Importance of a stable world Conflicted world leadership Pride & humiliation No trend continues forever

China’s China’s achievements since achievements since

19761976

World’s 2nd largest economy

China’s China’s achievements since achievements since

1976, cont’d.1976, cont’d. Trade has ballooned; now critical to economy People’s livelihood has improved

Communist ideology is out Enhanced involvement in worldwide organizations Steady modernization of armed forces

China’s China’s achievements since achievements since

1976, cont’d.1976, cont’d.Steady expansion of space program

Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau

““The Future Ain’t What The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be!” It Used To Be!”

China’s Many China’s Many ChallengesChallenges

Governance

China’s Many China’s Many ChallengesChallenges

Civil Society Economic Corruption Demography

Environmental degradation

China’s many China’s many challenges, cont’d.challenges, cont’d.

Government control Legal National security; strategic policy

Social

Ethnic tensions

““It’s tough making It’s tough making predictions, predictions,

particularly about the particularly about the future.”future.”

A proposition…A proposition…

China’s spectacular “rise” could become a “fall” for at least a period of time as challenges multiply and undermine governance, economic growth, social stability and political cohesion

Possible Possible developments developments

Political

2. Would a weak Chinese government really be better for the US?

Questions:

1. Would the US and other foreign businesses begin to pull back on investment and operations in China?

3. Could we still say that what happens in China stays in China?

Possible Possible developments, developments,

cont’d. cont’d. Economic Demographic Environmental degradation and future threats Ethnic tensions

Corruption National security policy

US Long-term US Long-term Approach to ChinaApproach to China

Get our own house in order!

Recognize China long-term will be major player and seek broad and deep engagement on all levels

Maintain clear-sighted emphasis on US national interests – speak clearly, negotiate tenaciously

Maintain strong national security – seek broader engagement with Chinese military, discuss strategic goals, increase transparency and trust

Economic/trade – relentless pursuit of specific US goals

Don’t preach!

What Do You Think?What Do You Think?