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The Plight of the Madrone:The effects of climate changeon Arbutus Menziesii

. This series of maps was created for EcoGeo Consulting in order to analyze potentialfuture climate change impacts on forests in Western North America. Arbutus Menziesii,also known as Pacific Madrone, was the focus of this project, and a GIS-based modelwas created to quantify the projected shifts in its range using a climate change model forthe late 21st century. Historic and future climate models as well as distribution recordsfor Arbutus Menziesii were used in the creation of this model, and included with the mapof the shift in its climatic model are a series of secondary maps illustrating the ways inwhich climate change may effect this species of tree.. The main factor defining the range of Pacific Madrone is the mildness of the wintersand summers in the areas it currently lives. Climatic variables were chosen to emphasizethese limiting factors on Pacific Madrone's range, and zonal statistics were used toidentify the range within these variables the tree grows. The upper map to the near rightshows a comparison of the GIS-derived climatic envelope created for this project incomparison to distribution records obtained from the United States Geological Service.. The variables chosen for this project were: Mean Annual Perciptation, WinterPerciptation, Summer Perciptation, Summer Temperature, and Winter Temperature.Zonal statistics were used to further understand where the tree grows in regards to thesevariables, and 1.5 standard deviations from the mean value in Pacific Madrone's rangewere used to define the climatic envelope relative to each of these variables.

. One of the main effects of climate change is in seasonality. Asthe Pacific Madrone's range is paritcularly sensitive to shifts inseasonality it was chosen as an ideal metaphor of how other treescan be affected by climate change. The two maps above illustratethe change in average winter temperature, with the blue arearepresenting the average winter temperatures Pacific Madrone willtolerate. These maps synergize well wih the map to the immediateleft, which displays how climate change can affect seasonality onthe continental level. The red and yellow areas represent the rangeof average summer temperatures in Pacific Madrone's nativehabitat, the yellow as they occur presently, and the red as they areprojected to occur in 2080. The green and blue areas represent theaverage winter temperatures which occur in Pacific Madrone'sclimatic envelope, with the green representing the present and theblue representing the forecast. As the Northern areas becomewarmer the Southern areas become cooler, which translates toclimatic turbulence, which can limit the areas in which sensitivetrees like the Pacific Madrone can grow.. The map to the right of the example of seasonal shiftingdisplays the forecasted range of areas potentially inhabited byPacific Madrone by the year 2080. A significant amount of habitatloss is projected to occur in this scenario.

Maps A and B displa y the range of average winter temperatures which characterizePacific Madrone habitats, between 1.4 and 9 degrees celsius.

Map C represents the current rangeof Pacific Madrone, with the GIS-derivedclimatic envelope in tan contrasted with themap of species distribution, outlined in white

Map D displays the final results of theGIS analysis. The areas in redrepresent a loss in habitation; the areas in lighter green represent that the tree maintainedits already existing habitat, and the areas indarker green represent new areas suitable forPacific Madrone to grow.

Map E shows the projected climatic envelop inhabited by Pacific Madrone in 2080.Interestingly, it seems to grow in a Northerlydirection as the South becomes increasinglyinhospitable.

Map F displays the shifting seasonality predicted by climate modelsThe symbology is explained to the left

Map created by Theodore Ahlvin for EcoGeo Consulting, 12/8/2014Data Sources: WWU 2014, WADOT 2003, USGS 2005, ESRI 2014, Stralberg et al 2014,

USGS 1999Projections: Custom Lambert Conformal Conic

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