Post on 25-Dec-2015
The Netherlands and IIASA Highlights
(2008-2015)
May 2015
CONTENTS
1. Summary2. National Member Organization3. Some Leading Dutch Personalities Associated with
IIASA4. Research Partners5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights6. Capacity Building7. Further Information
SUMMARY (2008-2015)National Member Organization
Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
Membership start date 1977
Research partners 45 organizations in the Netherlands
Areas of research collaborations
Research collaborations to tackle climate changeAdvancing energy and integrated assessment modeling in the NetherlandsGlobal Energy Assessment and the NetherlandsProjecting demographic change in the Netherlands Increasing flood resilience Smarter ways to manage the agricultural and forestry sectorsAnalyzing global and European water challengesThe future of fisheries and other evolutionary studies
Capacity building 21 doctoral students from the Netherlands have participated in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program and its new Southern African version
Publication output 341 publications have resulted from IIASA-Dutch collaborations
NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION• The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific
Research (NWO) • Professor Dr Jos J Engelen, Chairman of NWO,
is the IIASA Council Member for the Netherlands• Dr Josef Stuefer, Senior Policy Advisor, Earth &
Life Sciences/Policy Development, at NWO is the NMO Secretary for the Netherlands
SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN THE NETHERLANDS AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
Tjalling Koopmans Peter Nijkamp
Leen Hordijk Pavel Kabat Paul Crutzen
Wim C Turkenburg
RESEARCH PARTNERS• 45 institutions in the Netherlands, including: • Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) • KWR Watercycle Research Institute• Leiden University• National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)• Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)• PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency • Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) • Royal Dutch Shell• University of Groningen• Utrecht University• VU University Amsterdam• Wageningen University
RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS
Selected Highlights:• Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2000-2100• Global Energy Assessment and the Netherlands• Projecting changing population in the Netherlands• European flood risk could double by 2050• Climate change, energy & water nexus• Better forest management could reduce forest fire danger in Europe• Identifying climate impact hotspots on crop yields, water availability,
ecosystems, and health• Improved fishing policies• Research into policy
Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium includes IIASA & Dutch partners:
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2000-2100
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MESSAGE(IIASA)
AIM(NIES)
GCAM(PNNL)
IMAGE(PBL)
Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011). Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic Change, 109(1-2).
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE NETHERLANDS
9Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
• 2006-12: GEA defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy.
• Significant Dutch contribution: – 5 Convening Lead Authors– 15 Lead Authors– 4 Contributors & 13 Reviewers
• One notable outcome: GEA guides targets of UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
To update with Finland
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
Netherlands - Base Year 2010
Population in Millions
Ag
e (
in Y
ea
rs)
16.6 Million FemalesMales
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDSSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
Netherlands - Projections 2030 - SSP1
Population in Millions
Ag
e (
in Y
ea
rs)
17.9 Million FemalesMales
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDSSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
Netherlands - Projections 2060 - SSP1
Population in Millions
Ag
e (
in Y
ea
rs)
19 Million FemalesMales
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
To update with Finland
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
Netherlands - Base Year 2010
Population in Millions
Ag
e (
in Y
ea
rs)
16.6 Million FemalesMales
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDSCONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
Netherlands - Projections 2030 - SSP5
Population in Millions
Ag
e (
in Y
ea
rs)
18.5 Million FemalesMales
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDSCONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
Netherlands - Projections 2060 - SSP5
Population in Millions
Ag
e (
in Y
ea
rs)
22.1 Million FemalesMales
Decrease in thermoelectric power generating capacity due to lack of cooling-water
Source: van Vliet MTH, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier DP & Kabat P (2012). Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change.
CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY & WATER NEXUS
EUROPEAN FLOOD RISK COULD DOUBLE BY 2050
Jongman, B, S Hochrainer-Stigler, et. al. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods. Nature Climate Change (letter). doi: 10.1038/nclimate2124
BETTER FOREST MANAGEMENT COULD REDUCE FOREST FIRE DANGER IN EUROPE
Nikolay Khabarov, Andrey Krasovskii, Michael Obersteiner, Rob Swart, Alessandro Dosio, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Tracy Durrant, Andrea Camia, Mirco Migliavacca. 2014. Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe. Regional Environmental Change. September 2014. Doi: 10.1007/s10113-014-0621-0
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IDENTIFYING CLIMATE IMPACT HOTSPOTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, ECOSYSTEMS, AND HEALTH
Source: Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impacts in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
IMPROVED FISHING POLICIES• Northern Cod stock collapsed in
1992 and has not recovered since
• Heavy exploitation favors earlier maturation at smaller size
• We have documented a15% drop in age at maturation and a 30% drop in size at maturation
• Such evolutionary impactsof fishing are very slow and difficult to reverse
• New tool: Evolutionary Impact Assessments (Science 318:1247, Science 320:48)
Moratorium
1975 1992 200430
80
70
60
50
40
Early warning
Size at 50% maturationprobability at age 5 (cm)
Nature 428:932
RESEARCH INTO POLICY (Example)Dec 2013: European Commission proposed a new package of measures to reduce air pollution. Poor air quality is the number one environmental cause of premature death in the European Union. By 2030, the package will:
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• Avoid an extra 58,000 premature deaths• Protect an extra 123,000 km2 of ecosystems from nitrogen pollution
(more than half the area of Romania)• Save 19 000 km2 forests from acidification by the year 2030.
IIASA’s GAINS model guided European policymakers at every step of this process.
CAPACITY BUILDING• 20 doctoral students studying in the Netherlands have won places on
IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program since 2008.
Southern-African Young Scientist Summer Program: (SA-YSSP)• Johanna Schild (SA-YSSP ‘13/14 & VU
University Amsterdam) quantified water flow regulation within a semi-arid catchment and investigated the impact of implementing rainwater harvesting for more optimal water flow regulation.
CAPACITY BUILDING
FURTHER INFORMATION
IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at
Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)
www.nwo.nl