Post on 27-Jan-2015
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THE MOGUL’S GUIDE TO TMTHELLO TECH, MEDIA, & TELECOM, MEET THE FUTURE
Joseph Mathew | J.D./M.B.A. University of Virginia
josephmathew10@gmail.com | (706) 255-9793
April 10, 2023
Executive Level
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2
Black Box Breach
DragonRex 11
IceDragon 19
Investors Only 25
Empire Building 27
Appendix I: IceDragon Perspectives Analysis 41
Appendix II: Media Industry General Overview 44
Overview 3
6
3
OVERVIEW
THE MOGUL’S GUIDE: OVERVIEW
This guide is intended as a chart for intelligent media and technology chief executives o To be used in navigating the dark and choppy waters of the future
And also presents a few potential blueprints for significant market opportunities for those executives as well as investors
4
THE MOGUL’S GUIDE: SECTIONS
Black Box Breacho Paints the picture of the future living room
Provides key insights necessary in developing your company’s comprehensive strategy for the next decade
DragonRexo Articulates the devices that will own the living room of the future
IceDragono Furnishes a missing piece in the advertising technology arsenal for
media firms readying themselves for home entertainment dominated by the internet
Pantherao Global news gateway
Empire Buildingo Crystallizes and expands the franchise monetization model developed by
The Walt Disney Company
5
6
BLACK BOX BREACH
BLACK BOX BREACH EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Thesiso The contest over the future of your living room will be won, in the near
future, in decisive fashion By hardware, content, and services infused with the internet
throughout their D.N.A.
Rationaleo As Millennials’ & Emerging Markets’ voracious appetites for streaming
video steadily increases, o Telecommunications providers will eventually meet that need,
Creating a virtuous spiral for online media service creators and facilitators
7
SUPPORTING DATA
Internet data consumption skyrocketso Netflix accounts for about 1/3rd of peak period downstream traffic in North
America, while YouTube eats up 1/5th of mobile network traffic1
Jet speed internet approaches for landingo Google Fiber is turning up the pressure on entrenched internet providerso An Alcatel-Lucent and France Télécom-Orange test in February 2013
clocking speeds at a smoldering 400 gigabits-per-second2
Troublesome youtho Only 26% of Millennials watch more than 20 hours of television per week,
While 49% of non-Millennials do so o 42% of Millennials prefer to consume television content through their
computer through services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Hulu, While only 18% of non-Millennials prefer the same3
Emerging market viewers’ aversion to cableo Viewers in Brazil and China prefer online video to television4
8
RAMIFICATIONS
Crown the interneto The average future living room, within two decades, will revolve entirely
around the internet
Go global or go homeo Global brands will completely dominate mere domestic players
À la carte is the futureo The available apps, of which there will be hundreds or even thousands,
will each represent branded channels and services
Deploy capital accordinglyo Former cash flow generators will depreciate faster than forecast
Television stations Cable distribution Satellite distribution
o Certain properties may be undervalued Regional wireless communications providers Entertainment intellectual property owners and generators
9
SOURCES
1. Sandvine Global Report: Internet Data Usage Up 120 Percent In North America, Sandvine (April 30, 2013), http://www.sandvine.com/news/pr_detail.asp?ID=394.
2. Bernhard Warner, Alcatel-Lucent Unveils World's Most Powerful Broadband Infrastructure, Bloomberg Businessweek (April 30, 2013), http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-15/alcatel-lucent-unveils-worlds-most-powerful-broadband-infrastructure.
3. Christine Barton, Chris Egan, Jeff Fromm, The Millennial Consumer Debunking Stereotypes, The Boston Consulting Group (April 30, 2013). http://www.brandchannel.com/images/papers/536_BCG_The_Millennial_Consumer_Apr_2012%20(3)_tcm80-103894.pdf .
4. Sam Gutelle, China and Brazil Leading Global Expansion Of Online Video, tubefilter (August 12, 2013), http://www.tubefilter.com/2013/07/02/edelman-study-entertainment-goes-global/#sthash.W826Wx6W.dpuf.
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DRAGONREX
WHAT DEVICES WILL RULE THIS FUTURE LIVING ROOM?
DragonRex: Media Dream Machineo XBox One/PS4 + Smart TV – Cable/Satellite Input + Necessity
Programming (for the Millennial viewer) = DragonRex = Media Portal
o Services A Media & Entertainment Portal Gaming, Movies, Channels (News/Live Events/Episodes), Indie
Headsets/Glasseso Virtual Reality (VR)
Oculus Rifto Augmented Reality (AR)
Google Glasso VR + AR
Microsoft’s Fortaleza
12
DRAGONREX OVERVIEW: PHASE I
DragonRex specso Ram - 32 GB, CPU Cores/Threads - 32/32, Storage - 2 TB, Motion
Control - Leap Motion, OS - Android, Data - Ethernet/WiFi/Bluetooth/HDMI Audio Output, Dimensions - 65” Diagonal/4 mm Edge, Design - Ellipse
Millennial Necessity Programming à la carte (MNP)o ESPN
Leverage - Fox Sports One, Tennis Channel, Golf Channel, MLB Network, NFL Network, NHL Network, NBA TV…
o HBO GO (minus the cable subscription) Leverage - Netflix, Prime, Showtime, DreamWorks Animation…
o Netflix &/or Amazon Prime Gaming beast
o EA, Activision Blizzard, Rockstar Games, Valve, Ubisoft… Leverage - Zynga, Gree, DeNA, Rovio, King…
Movies/Channels/Indieo Streaming (Netflix, Prime, Hulu, Crackle, YouTube…)o Download (Hard Disk, IceDragon)
13
DRAGONREX MEDIA NEGOTIATIONS: SECRET SAUCE
What do the major media players want?o Disney/Time Warner/21st Century Fox/Viacom desperately want 24/7
branded channels in China
What does the Chinese government want?o Their own Disney/Time Warner/21st Century Fox
Multiple media empires originating from China1
What will DragonRex have?o A media portal built specifically for the needs of emerging markets
Global Internet based Zero barriers to entry for channel distribution
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DRAGONREX MEDIA NEGOTIATING: PROPOSED DEAL
The major media players allow their content and apps on the DragonRex platform
In exchange, the Chinese government allows those players access to their market via the DragonRex platform
In exchange, DragonRex grants China’s emerging media firms (Xinhua News Agency, CCTV, Oriental DreamWorks…) Most Favored Channel statuso Prioritized placement on home screenso Advertisingo Global audienceo Advisory
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CHINA
DRAGONREXMEDIA FIRMS
partn
ersh
ips
mar
ket a
cces
s &
24/7
chan
nels
à la carte premium content
access to emerging markets & millennials
market access
most favored channels
HEADSETS/GLASSES INITIAL KILLER MARKETS
ARo Transport (Driving, Shipping, Aviation)o Military combat
360° vision+
• 360° cameras
• Drones+
• Satellites+
• Military intel+
• Unit, division, company intel+
• Orders+
VRo Hardcore gamingo Sports programmingo Military training
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VR + ARo Sports programmingo General gamingo Shoppingo Social interactions…
DRAGONREX & VR + AR GLASSES:THE FUTURE OF SPORTS PROGRAMMING DRAGONREX
o Traditional live sports displayed through the main media portal at the center of the living room
VR + AR Glasses
o VR Displays multiple additional angles of the action
• Premium subscription potential
o AR Displays additional data
• Commanded by voice, gesture, and device
• On players, teams, and plays
• Based on recognition of images displayed on the DragonRex portal
17
SOURCES
1. Joseph Mathew, Go For Launch: Disney’s Recipe For Successfully Piercing The Media Veil In China, (August 13, 2013), http://www.slideshare.net/codycostarica/disney-china-media-memo-joseph-mathew.
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ICEDRAGONADVERTISING SOLUTION TO FILL A GAP IN ONLINE MEDIA
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CONSUMER PRODUCT
COMPANIES
CONTENT
ADVERTISING AGENCIES
MEDIA FIRMS
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL
DRAGONREX
CONSUMERS
ICEDRAGON
ICEDRAGON OVERVIEW
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CONSUMERICEDRAGON CLOUD
(Utilizing AWS)
A. Consumer Inputs Data (age/sex/etc. with fewer ads per data)B. Consumer Provides Ad Feedback (up/down votes, rankings, written)
IceDragon Package Delivered (Ads+Containers+Content)
Ad
Up
dat
es
AD
AD
CO
NT
EN
T
AD
CO
NT
EN
T
AD
CO
NTA
INE
R
Ads Segmented By Demographic
AD AGENCIES & CONSUMER PRODUCT COMPANIES
Ad
U
pd
ates
IceDragon Proprietary Binding Tech
DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS
ICEDRAGON CONCEPT
INTERNET DOWNLOAD
KEYHierarchy Of Importance To Millennials
TIER I = HIGH
TIER II = MEDIUM
TIER III = LOW22
MEDIA CONTENT LANDSCAPEMILLENIAL CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE
HIGH PRICE
INFLEXIBLE TIMING
DIGITAL VIDEO RECORDERS
VIDEO ON DEMAND
LOW PRICE TIER I
FLEXIBLE TIMINGTIER I
HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY
LOW QUALITY
HIGH QUALITY
TIER II
TIER II
CABLENETWORKS
SATELLITE
HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY
LOW QUALITY
HIGH QUALITY
HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY
LOW QUALITY
HIGH QUALITY
HIGH MOBILITYLOW MOBILITY
LOW QUALITY
HIGH QUALITY
DVD/BLU RAY
HIGH ADVERTISING
LOW ADVERTISING
HIGH OWNERSHIPLOW OWNERSHIP
TIER III
TIER III
ICEDRAGON
HIGH ADVERTISING
LOW ADVERTISING
HIGH OWNERSHIPLOW OWNERSHIP
INTERNETSTREAMING
MEDIA PLAYERS
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CONTENT VALUE CHAIN
OLD BRAND NEW
LOW PRODUCTION VALUE
HIGH PRODUCTION VALUE
NETWORK SERIESBRAND NEW
CABLE SERIESBRAND NEW
YOUTUBE INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS
BRAND NEW
SHORT MOVIESBRAND NEW
YOUTUBE CHANNEL VIDEOS
BRAND NEW
FEATURE FILMSBRAND NEW
ICEDRAGON APPSWEET SPOT
NETWORK SERIESRECENTLY AIRED
CABLE SERIESRECENTLY AIRED
YOUTUBE INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS
RECENT RELEASE
SHORT MOVIESRECENT RELEASE
YOUTUBE CHANNEL VIDEOS
RECENT RELEASE
FEATURE FILMSPOST-DVD RELEASE
NETWORK SERIESPOPULAR SERIES
CABLE SERIESPOPULAR SERIES
YOUTUBE INDIVIDUAL VIDEOS
OLD
SHORT MOVIESOLD
YOUTUBE CHANNEL VIDEOS
OLD
FEATURE FILMSCLASSICS
POPULAR MUSICBRAND NEW
POPULAR MUSICRECENT RELEASE
POPULAR MUSICOLD
AMATEUR MUSICBRAND NEW
AMATEUR MUSICRECENT RELEASE
AMATEUR MUSICOLD
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
MILLENNIAL CONTENT
ICEDRAGON BUSINESS MODEL
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CONSUMER PRODUCT
COMPANIES
CONTENT
ADVERTISING AGENCIES
MEDIA FIRMS
ICEDRAGON
$ UP FRONTFEES TO BIND ADS
$ FEE TO UPDATE ADS
$ FEE TO SEE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
$ UP FRONTFEES TO BIND ADS
$ FEE TO UPDATE ADS
$ FEE TO SEE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
IceDragon Package (Ads + Content) Delivered Via Internet
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INVESTORS ONLY
INVESTORS ONLY
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EMPIRE BUILDINGTHE FRANCHISE TEMPLATE FOR MEDIA CONGLOMERATES
OVERVIEW: THE STORY BRIDGE MODEL
The central elemento The most profitable franchises in media & entertainment have a common
core element: a timeless story
The story bridge modelo Six phaseso One continuous story
Data pointso Even with the evidence staring directly at them, no media firm has
completely implemented this model on an institutional basis
2. NOVEL
3. GRAPHIC NOVEL/
COMIC BOOK
4. VIDEO GAME (IMMERSIVE/SOCIAL)5. MOVIE
6. CONSUMER PRODUCTS +
THEME PARKS + ONLINE CONTENT
1. STORY
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CONSIDERATIONS
Non-Monetaryo Brand
Story Cross-generational fan base Immersive experience
o Sustained PR
Monetaryo Synergies across businesses
Novel Graphic Novel Video Game Movie Theme Park Consumer Products Online Content
29
FR
AN
CH
ISE
PHASE I: FINDING THE STORY - RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
Research & Developmento Cast wide net initiallyo Initial emphasis on low cost distribution routes, before minting franchises
STORY
STORY
STORY
STORYSTORY
STORY
Creative Brainstorming
Treatments Short Stories Comic Books Graphic Novels
Novels Graphic Novels
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PHASE II: THE GRAPHIC NOVEL/COMIC BOOK SERIES
Potentialo Great novels can be turned into great graphic novels and comic books
Why Graphic Novelso Maximizes fan base
Engages all ages
• Kids through Fan Boys/Girlso Most valuable customers
Developing deeply loyal fan base ensure lifetime customers
Data Pointso Spiderman, Batman, Avengers…
Implicationso Future storylines can “test the water” by releasing a leather bound, digital
moving image enabled, graphic novel Before green lighting the screenplay
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PHASE III: THE NOVEL
Potentialo Great stories can be turned into great novels
Why Novelso Maximizes engagement level
Plot background Character development
o Customer segmentation By attacking every customer segment, a media firm builds value
exponentially Increases the number of potential people with emotional stakes in
any storylineo Creates potential for spinoffs of secondary characters and storylines
Data Pointso Harry Pottero The Lord Of The Rings
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PHASE IV: THE VIDEO GAME
Why Video Gameso Immersive
The experience is as immersive as technology allowso Social
Role Playing Games create vast social networkso Untapped Potential
Increase value by placing a video game’s story in an actual story sequence between the first and second novels
Data Pointo Halo
Over 40 M copies sold worldwide, generating more than $3 B in merchandise1
Arrogance in Microsoft’s initial foray into the film industry has delayed a movie deal2
Even amidst such neglect, fan fiction has propagated Rooster Teeth’s success with Red vs. Blue
2.1 M subscribers on YouTube
33
PHASE V: THE MOVIE
Why Movieso PR
Press generated by summer event movieso Society
Mainstream society considers movies as the “ultimate” form of a storyo Reach
Allows casual fans to engage with story with limited price, time, and commitment
Potential for long term reengagement through television and digital sales
Data Pointso Star Warso Jurassic Park
34
PHASE VI: CONSUMER PRODUCTS, THEME PARKS, ONLINE
Consumer Productso Increases reality for kids by connecting real life sensory experiences,
activating their imaginationso Data Point
Toy Story 3
• More than $1 B box office sales, but $7.3 B in retail sales3
Theme Parkso High CapEx places a barrier to entry for competing firmso Involves entire familyo Data Points
Pirates Of The Caribbean Harry Potter
Onlineo Potential to provide an additional story bridge between the movies and
video games o Data point: Pixar’s shorts
35
MEDIA TOYS FOR THE FUTURE: THE STORY BRIDGE CONCEPT
By creating a seamless story that bridges from
Graphic novel to
Online episodes to
Movie to
Toy(s) to Theme parks and beyond!
A media firm multiplies the value generated by their elite intellectual property
Each phase, ideally, should represent a stand-alone chapter, of a continuing story line
36
MEDIA TOYS FOR THE FUTURE: SMART TOYS
Toys should be as smart, or smarter than our phones and tablets
Once toys are infused with near artificial intelligence, the consumer products phase within the story bridge can be taken to another level
Implicationso Smart toys could lead their owner on an adventure, which is an integral
part of the franchise story line
o Major consumer product plot points could only occur with the combination of multiple toys together
Encouraging children to organize socially to complete plot points
37
THEME PARKS ARE NOT JUST FOR KIDS ANYMORE
Media-technology firms that tend to generate adult focused intellectual property o Have enormous monetization opportunities open to them in the form of
live entertainment parks
Adult theme parkso Military training and competitions (Call Of Duty)o Weapons training (Assassin’s Creed)o Science fiction adventures (Halo)o Racing (Forza Motorsport, Need For Speed)
Meeting live entertainment objectives could have virtual rewards
38
ACQUISITION OPPORTUNITIES
Studioso DreamWorks Animationo MGM
Consumer Productso Hasbroo Mattel
Gamingo Electronic Artso Activision Blizzard
Franchise Potential Propertieso Haloo Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy (reboot)o Red Wallo Dune
39
SOURCES
1. Erik Kain, New Halo 4 Details, Screenshots Emerge As 343 Industries Takes The Warthog's Wheel, Forbes (August 13, 2013)http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2012/03/05/halo-4-screenshots-details-revealed-new-multi-player-redesigned-master-chief-as-343-industries-takes-the-warthogs-wheel/.
2. Guest Blogger, Why the Halo Movie Failed to Launch, WIRED, (August 13, 2013) http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2012/04/halo-movie-generation-xbox/.
3. The Walt Disney Company Investor Conference 2011, (August 13, 2013)http://cdn.media.ir.thewaltdisneycompany.com/2011/events/ic/2011_Investor_Conference_Transcript_FINAL.pdf
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APPENDIX IICEDRAGON PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS
ICEDRAGON PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS – PART A
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HARD COPY STREAMING LIVE DVR/ON-DEMAND ICEDRAGON DOWNLOAD
DESCRIPTION Physically tangible Requires additional device to play
Streaming digitally directly onto device
Live broadcasts through specific devices (generally television)
Record onto a specific device (television)
May be subject to restrictions Satellite/Cable provided devices Third party devices (TiVo, Apple
TV…)
Record media onto any
TYPE DVD BluRay Flash Drive
Internet Satellite Cable
Internet Cable Satellite Network Satellite
Digital Video Recorders Video On Demand
Internet Cable Satellite
Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits
CONSUMER’S PERSPECTIVE
Tied to physical location
Mobile Hyper-Unfriendly
Secure Portable Highest
Definition Skip
trailers/ads Flexible timing
Buffering is awful!
Often low quality
Limited connectivity across platforms
Why pay for permanent beta products?
Forced ads
Portable Mobile Friendly Flexible timing
Connectivity issues
Mobile unfriendly
Forced ads Inflexible timing
Fair quality Potential for an
“event” dynamic (Superbowl,
American Idol Finals)
Premier option when results matter (sports, competitions)
Connectivity issues
Limited hard drive space (depending on provider)
Not “live” Mobile
unfriendly
Flexible timing Skip ads High quality
Forced ads Not “live” Privacy (who
sees the data?)
Highest quality Mobile friendly Flexible timing
MEDIA FIRM’S PERSPECTIVE
Increasing digitization of society
Increasing ubiquity of mobile devices
Secure (less piracy)
Charge premium for ownership
Available only through internet (does not reach rural areas)
Secure Forced ads Lower quality
than live, so can argue for higher fees to distribution channels and consumer product companies
Mobile Friendly
Mobile unfriendly
Lower viewership depending on audience schedules
Enables high drama for specific episodes
Potential to drive social conversation
Angers advertisers, may drive lower prices paid
Increases viewership potential
Ownership by the consumer
Secure Forced ads Mobile friendly Maximizes
viewership
DISTRIBUTION FIRM’S PERSPECTIVE
Does not use media distribution channels except physical and online retail stores
Bandwidth strains
Technology not developed
Consumer complaints for purchases that have low quality
Flexible timing Can charge
premium pricing for in-home convenience
Potential bandwidth strains at big events
Potential to show multiple sources of content unavailable in any other format
Bandwidth strains
Technology not developed
Consumer complaints for purchases that have low quality
Flexible timing Can charge
premium pricing for in-home convenience
Chance for increased subscription fee
Potential to remove Cable/Satellite/Networks providers out of the equation for certain channels
Potential for fewer rentals
Reduce bandwidth strains and impending “bandwidth cliff” as consumption patterns evolve
Consumers can download outside of peak hours
ICEDRAGON PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS – PART B
43
HARD COPY STREAMING LIVE RECORDER/ON DEMAND ICEDRAGON DOWNLOAD
DESCRIPTION Physically tangible Requires additional device to play
Streaming digitally directly onto device
Live broadcasts through specific devices (generally television)
Record onto a specific device (television)
May be subject to restrictions Satellite/Cable provided devices Third party devices (TiVo, Apple
TV…)
Record media onto any
TYPE DVD BluRay Flash Drive
Internet Satellite Cable
Internet Cable Satellite Network Satellite
Digital Video Recorders Video On Demand
Internet Cable Satellite
Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits Drawbacks Benefits
CONSUMER PRODUCT COMPANY’S PERSPECTIVE
Consumers skip ads
Significant time delay potential for ads
Non-targeted ads
Poor ad quality Tendency of
consumers to shift attention to other screens and web pages and/or mute
Forced ads More targeted
Non-targeted High audience potential
PR potential
Ability to skip ads
Highly targeted ads
Ability to segment purchases by individual
Maximizes audience potential
Forced ad views
ADVERTISING AGENCIES’ PERSPECTIVE
Consumer may skip ads
Poorer quality leads to potential for fewer audience
Forced ads Poorer quality
leads to potential for fewer audience
Vague mandate due to limited targeting for large events
High audience potential
Ability to skip ads
IceDragon has leverage on ad placement
Potential for forcing to improve quality of ad
Potential for restrictions on timing (shorten or lengthen) to maximize audience viewership
Ability to target ads most specifically
Potential for increased number of types of ads by demographic segmentation
Potential for customer reviews of the advertisements
44
APPENDIX IIMEDIA INDUSTRY GENERAL OVERVIEW
MEDIA INDUSTRY GENERAL OVERVIEW
CONTENTo Types
Film
• Kids
• Teens
• Adults Television
• Networks
• Cable Music Novels Comics Advertising
• Creative
• PR
• Media Advisoryo Production
Story Origination Talent Management Financing Technology
• Hardware
• Software
45
DISTRIBUTIONo Interneto Cableo Satelliteo Cellularo Radioo Experience
Theme Parks Concerts Sports
• Professional
• Amateur Theater Gambling
45