Post on 20-Dec-2015
The Information Societyin Latin America and the Caribbean:
Development of Technologyand Technologies for Development
José Luis MachineaExecutive Secretary, ECLAC
Second Ministerial Conference on the Information Society in Latin America and the Caribbean -- San Salvador, 6-8 February 2008
Issues
I. Digital paradigm: diffusion andimpact
II. ICT development: hardware, software, telecommunications
III. ICTs for development: applications and content
IV. Policies for development with ICTs
Paradigm and digital future
• ICTs, general-purpose technologies
– New technological and production paradigm based on the digitization of operations
• Acceleration of the pace of change
– As much technological progress will be made between now and 2010 as has been made since the microprocessor was invented in 1973
• Technological development exogenous to the region
The speed of technical progress is constantly posing new challenges
Penetration of ICTs in 2002 and 2006(Percentages)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2006 2002 2006 2002 2006 2002 2006 2002 2006
Fixed Mobile PC Internet Broadband
OECD
LAC
Digital divide in absolute terms
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Fixed Mobile PC Internet Broadband
Diff
eren
tial i
n %
of p
enet
ratio
n
2002
2006
Penetration of ICTs in 2002 and 2006(Percentages)
COMMUNICATION CAPACITY (fixed and mobile telephony and Internet)
(Megabytes per second per capita)
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ca
pa
city
(m
eg
ab
yte
s p
er
ca
pita
)
LAC OECD
Source: M. Hilbert, P. López and C. Vázquez, "ICT innovation avenues and the amount of digital information: deepeningcomprehension of the digital paradigm", Santiago, Chile, ECLAC, 2007, unpublished.
Diffusion of the digital paradigm: The digital divide is a moving target!
58 61
1319
PC Internet
OECD LACSource: Observatory for the Information Society in Latin America and the Caribbean (OSILAC), on the basis of International Telecommunication Union (ITU), “World International Indicators Database”, 2007.
Diffusion of the digital paradigm: Pooled access to advanced services
% of penetration in 2006
The domestic divide
• Multiple determinants (gender,
ethnic origin, geographical location, sex), but two fundamental factors: income and level of education.
• Determinants are closely related but have individual effects.
Domestic demand: Income and education
No formal education
Primary
SecondaryTertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
III
IIIIV
V
Education
Income quintile
Penetration, mobile telephonyBrazil
Source: OSILAC, ECLAC, 2008.
Domestic divide: Income and education
No formal education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
III
IIIIV
V
Education
Income quintiles
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
Source: OSILAC, ECLAC, 2008.
Domestic divide: Income and education
No formal …
Primary
SecondaryTertiary
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
III
IIIIV
V
Education
Income quintiles
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
Source: OSILAC, ECLAC, 2008.
Domestic divide: Income and education
III
IIIIV
V
No formal education
Primary
SecondaryTertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Income quintiles
Education
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
Source: OSILAC, ECLAC, 2008.
Domestic divide: Income and education
III
IIIIV
V
No formal education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Income quintiles
Education
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
…more income, more connectivity
Source: OSILAC, ECLAC, 2008.
Domestic divide: Income and education
No formal education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
III
IIIIV
V
Education
Income quintiles
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
Source: OSILAC, ECLAC, 2008.
…more income, more connectivity
Domestic divide: Income and education
No formal education
PrimarySecondary
Tertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
III
IIIIV
V
Education
Income quintiles
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
…more income, more connectivity
Source: OSILAC, CEPAL, 2008.
III
IIIIV
V
No formal education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Income quintiles
Education
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
Domestic divide: Income and education
Source: OSILAC, ECLAC, 2008.
…more income, more connectivity
III
IIIIV
V
No formal education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Income quintiles
Education
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
Domestic divide: Income and education
…same income but with more education => more connectivity
Source: OSILAC, CEPAL, 2008.
Domestic divide: Income and education
No formal education
Primary
SecondaryTertiary0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
III
IIIIV
V
Education
Income quintiles
Penetration of mobile telephonesBrazil
Source: OSILAC, ECLAC, 2008.
Economic impact
• ICTs’ positive impacts on economic growth and productivity
– Account for between 10% and 14% of the region’s growth in 1995-2004.
• Major impacts in developed countries
– Complementarities with systems of production, innovation, education and institutional development.
Expenditure on ICTs and complementary factors must be balanced: skills/training are essential for their efficient adoption.
ICT development
• Hardware: tradable goods widely available on the international market. Little local capacity in LAC.
• Software and related services: generally tradable activities, but heavily dependent on local features. Capacity in LAC is just beginning to be developed.
• Telecommunications: non-tradable services. Promote competition, but regulation is essential.
ICT hardware• Production is concentrated in the region’s larger
countries (although with some exceptions) and is based on one of two different models:
– Production for the domestic market (Brazil)
– Assembly of imported components in export platforms (Mexico and Central America).
• Long learning curve and high entry barriers, as well as less and less hardware product innovation.
To take advantage of its impacts for the benefit of society as a whole, it is important to use leading-edge hardware.
Local production, where possible, is a plus but it is difficult to keep up with the pace of progress at the global level.
Software and related services• Two main types of agents: subsidiaries of
transnational corporations and local SMEs.
• Production is geared towards demand for standardized export products and related services for the adaptation of ICTs to local requirements. Both have potential, but the second is crucial for efficient domestic application.
• Limited supply of skilled workers: 340,000 technicians (0.19% of total employment, and many of these technicians are working for exporters) are not enough to strengthen the information society.
A basic minimum of domestic capacity is essential because of the influence that local characteristics exert on the efficiency of software use.
The telecommunications market
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%A
rgen
tina
Bra
zil
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Arg
entin
a
Bra
zil
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Arg
entin
a
Bra
zil
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Arg
entin
a
Bra
zil
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Fixed telephony Mobile telephony Broadband access Pay TV
Telefónica Telmex/América Móvil TIM VTR Oi Other
Source: ECLAC, 2008.
Market share, by segments, 2007(Percentages)
• Two major operators in the region, but national competition is on the rise, especially in new services
Who is investing in the modernization and expansion of basic infrastructure (Next Generation Networking – NGN)?
• Narrowing the divide (efficiency and social objectives):
– Gaps in the market: Regulation to promote efficient allocation
– Gaps in access: Cross or direct subsidies?
Alignment of regulatory policies with universalization
Setting sectoral priorities
Setting universalization mechanisms into motion
Telecom regulation
• Technological convergence:– Market concentration in infrastructure and competition in service delivery.
– Market reorganization (e.g., new competition between telephony and cable operators and between telecommunications and broadcasting)
– Redefinition of jurisdictions and functions of regulator(s)
Strengthening regulatory agencies: independence and technical capacity
The importance of investment
ICTs for development: applications and content
Education, governance, trade and business, health, and disaster management
• Benefits:
– Service efficiency:
Real time, transparency, interactivity, single-channel multiple communications.
– Service quality:
More flexible processes and service mix.
– Service coverage:
Do away with geographic and time-zone barriers.
• Potential problems:
– Access, use capacities, security and confidence, privacy
ICTs for development: challenges
• Ownership: Professionals in all sectors should take ownership of ICTs so that they can incorporate them properly into their organizational processes and priorities.
• Digitization: Progress in front-office (Web page) functions, but unmet (and bigger) challenges in back-office (database interconnection) environments, including the complexities of interoperability (common standards).
• Sharing of experiences: Progress in governance, trade and education. Health services and disaster management have lagged behind in terms of ICT use.
• Uneven progress:
– Countries developing a second-generation agenda
– Countries still in the process of developing a first-generation agenda
• Issues on national agendas:
– Most popular issues:
Access, infrastructure and e-government
– Most neglected issues:
Health, administration of justice and disaster management
National strategies
Cuba
Chile
MéxicoBrasil
Argentina
Uruguay
ColombiaRep. Bol. de Venezuela
Perú
Jamaica
Barbados
Trinidad y Tabago
Bahamas
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Rep. DominicanaBolivia
Ecuador
Guatemala
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Honduras
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Índ
ice
de
pre
sen
cia
en w
eb
Origen Formulación Implementación Origen Formulación Implementación SEGUNDA GENERACÓN
Baja intesidad Alta intesidad
PRIMERA GENERACIÓN
Más de 5 años Menos de 5 años
National strategies
Source: Digital Review of Latin America and the Caribbean (2008), Santiago, Chile, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)/United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)/International Development Research Centre (IDRC)/ Regional Dialogue on the Information Society (DIRSI), unpublished.
Countries with few ICT projects
Just beginning to develop a national strategy for policy coordination
Have a national strategy for policy coordination
=> Coordination of disperse initiatives leads to better results
Cuba
Chile
MéxicoBrasil
Argentina
Uruguay
ColombiaRep. Bol. de Venezuela
Perú
Jamaica
Barbados
Trinidad y Tabago
Bahamas
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Rep. DominicanaBolivia
Ecuador
Guatemala
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Honduras
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Índ
ice
de
pre
sen
cia
en w
eb
Origen Formulación Implementación Origen Formulación Implementación SEGUNDA GENERACÓN
Baja intesidad Alta intesidad
PRIMERA GENERACIÓN
Más de 5 años Menos de 5 años
National strategies
Fuente: CEPAL, OSILAC, PNUD, DIRSI, ICA-IDRC, Digital Review, 2008.
Countries with large number of ICT projects
Source: Digital Review of Latin America and the Caribbean (2008), Santiago, Chile, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)/United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)/International Development Research Centre (IDRC)/ Regional Dialogue on the Information Society (DIRSI), unpublished.
Cuba
Chile
MéxicoBrasil
Argentina
Uruguay
ColombiaRep. Bol. de Venezuela
Perú
Jamaica
Barbados
Trinidad y Tabago
Bahamas
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Rep. DominicanaBolivia
Ecuador
Guatemala
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Honduras
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Índ
ice
de
pre
sen
cia
en w
eb
Origen Formulación Implementación Origen Formulación Implementación SEGUNDA GENERACÓN
Baja intesidad Alta intesidad
PRIMERA GENERACIÓN
Más de 5 años Menos de 5 años
National strategiesCountries with second-
generation national agendas
Source: Digital Review of Latin America and the Caribbean (2008), Santiago, Chile, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)/United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)/International Development Research Centre (IDRC)/ Regional Dialogue on the Information Society (DIRSI), unpublished.
Lessons of eLAC2007: towards eLAC2010
• Results:
– Progress has been made towards 15 of the 27 goals being monitored
– Most progress: development of access and skill-building. Least progress: development of content and applications.
• Policy lessons:
(1) Balance the development of access, skills and applications
(2) Coordinate action using a public-private meta-platform
(3) Monitor progress and identify best practices to facilitate the exchange of experiences
(4) Quantifiable goals: Define accurate indicators
(5) Qualitative goals: Set up action-oriented mechanisms, to be defined and monitored in conjunction with contributing partners (see annex 2 of draft eLAC 2010)
Recommendations
(1) Build capacities and complementarities to make the potential impact of ICTs a reality.
(2) Generate a basic minimum of domestic capacity for the development of software and related services.
(3) Strike a balance in ICT regulation to support efficiency, universalization and investment.
(4) Coordinate the countries’ budgets and their numerous initiatives.
(5) Take advantage of the region’s heterogeneity to enhance intrarregional exchange and cooperation.
(6) Motivate ICT users to take ownership of policy leadership.
(7) Strengthen institutions in charge of implementing ICT policies and regulation and the tools available to them.