The History &

Future of the

InternetDennis Jennings

Knous Limited

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The History & Future of the Internet

• Year -30: 1943 – 1952

• 2nd World War ends (1945)

• ENIAC (US) – Hardware programmed computer (1946)

• The Stored Program Computer concept (von Neumann)

• Manchester (UK) Small-Scale Experimental Machine (1948)

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year -20: 1953 – 1962

• The Era of significant Computing developments

• 1st Commercial Modem – 300 bps (1962)

• Year -10: 1963 – 1972

• Computer networking and packet switching research

• ARPANET (1969)

• Networking & Internetworking concepts developed

The Original ARPANET

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ARPANET

• The ARPANET IMP – Interface Message Processor

ARPANET - Mobile

Vint Cerf

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year Zero: 1973 – 1982

• Internet (TCP/IP) Protocols published (Cerf and Kahn, 1973)

• The Era of Internetworking research (data, packet voice & video, packet mobile)

• 1st mobile phone (Motorola, 1973)

• The IBM Personal Computer (1981)

• First Computer Virus – Apple II

First 3-Network Test of Internet (1977)

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year +10: 1983 – 1992

• Internet deployment for selected researchers (ARPANET (1983), CSnet (1983))

• Internet deployment for all (US) researchers NSFnet (1985)

• 1st PC Virus (1986)

• The World Wide Web and Web Browser (CERN, 1990)

• The Internet comes to European researchers (1991) / Early commercial ISPs

NSFnet – Jan 1985

• Build a SupercomputerAccess Network

• Presentation to National Science Board

– Not a single network

– A network of networks(An Internet)

– Standard Protocols

NSFnet

• A General Purpose Network

For all Science and Engineering Research(and by extension, all research) (US)

- rather that a dedicated single supercomputer network

NSFnet

• An Internet

• TCP/IP Protocols

• TCP/IP mandated !

NSFnet

• A Three Tier Network

– Campus Networks

– Regional Networks / Community Networks

– National Backbone

ARPANET Expansion

New National Backbone

NSFnet

• Not to fund campus networks, but to leave to the campuses the responsibility for the delivery of networking to the end users.

• To fund the NSFNET backbone

• Interim (56kb) 17 September 1985 – Live 1986

• 1st Backbone (T1) 1987 (Steve Wolff)

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NSFnetWhile all of these decisions may seem reasonably obvious with hindsight, none of these decisions was seen by everyone involved as obviously necessary or correct at the time, and all of the decisions were controversial, hotly debated, and contested.

NSFnet – Community & Communication

• Building the Community

• Communicating the NSFNET Vision

– Presentations

– Debates (TCP/IP v. MFEnet v. DECnet)

– Arguments / Persuasion

– Funding – The Golden Rule

– Publication – The Science Paper

NSFnet – Science Paper – Vision Statement

“NSFnet is expected to be a general-purpose communications network for the whole academic research community and associated industrial researchers”.

“Our vision of this network is of a vast network of networks interconnecting the scientists local advanced graphics workstation environment to other local and national resources”.

“Through that single window the scientist may gain access to required computing facilities and databases and communicate with peers, colleagues, and scholars throughout the world”.

NSFnet 1991.

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year +20: 1993 – 2002

• The Commercial Internet infrastructure begins

• Amazon Starts (1994)

• The US Telecommunications Act (1996)

• The World Wide Web becomes ubiquitous

• Online - The dis-intermediation of traditional business models

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year +20: 1993 – 2002 /Continued

• The emergence of Search (Google, 1998)

• “Everything is on the Internet”

• The dotcom Bubble & Crash

• “Data must be Free” - Internet Commerce “Tax Free”

• Ryanair’s Internet Booking system (2000)

• Estonian X-Road for Citizen / Government interaction (2001)

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year +30: 2003 – 2012

• The Search for a Business Model – “Monetising” the Data

• The emergence of global cybercrime

• The emergence of Social Media (LinkedIn, 2002, Facebook, 2004)

• The Customer as the Product – Personal data for “better services and advertising” – Personal profiling the “In” thing.

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year +30: 2003 – 2012 / Continued

• The iPhone (Apple, 2007)

• Innovation & Disruption as the Business Model

• Mass surveillance, data retention, and “Privacy is Dead”

• Cyber warfare becomes real - Stuxnet virus (2005 – 2010)

• “Big Data” is the new paradigm

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year +40: 2013 - …..

• The emergence of new “network effect” monopolies (Amazon, Google, Facebook, Uber, Apple, …….)

• The Internet of Things (IoT) emerges – Physical environment profiling

• The Innovation & Disruption Business Model begins to be questioned

The History & Future of the Internet

• Year +40: 2013 - …..

• The backlash begins – ECJ & Privacy as a fundamental human right

• Safe Harbour thrown out by ECJ (2015) – replaced by Privacy Shield (likely also to fail – Digital Rights Ireland)

• GDPR changes everything – maybe …

What have we learned ?

What have we learned ?

• Everything is digital

• Everything is connected

• Everything is software driven

• All software has flaws and can be compromised

• IT Security is really, really, difficult

• Everything is changed – Is anything Secure! ?

The Risks have escalated !

• A car is a software driven computer network – with wheels

• A thermonuclear power plant is a software driven computer network – with active nuclear fission

• Internet of Things devices are made up of lowest cost (€0.5) components and cheapest open source, unmaintainable, software components …..

• People are profiling their physical world !

• Artificial (Heuristics) Intelligence is making decisions !

… And The Future ?

• Powerful Industries promote Innovation & Disruption as the way forward

• Powerful Governments support these Industries

• Powerful Courts challenge the underlying industry assumptions

• The Law (where Parliaments are interested) struggles to keep up ........