The Gulf of Alaska Project: An Integrated Ecosystem Research Project

K. Hedstrom (UAF)J. Heifetz (NOAA)R. Heintz (NOAA)A. Hermann (UW)S. Hinckley (NOAA)R. Hopcroft (UAF)J. Horne (UW)N. Kachel (UW)C. Ladd (NOAA)A. Matarese (NOAA)D. McGowan (UW)C. Mordy (UW) J. Moss (NOAA)F. Mueter (UAF)J. Napp (NOAA)O. Ormseth (NOAA)C. Parada (IIP)

K. Rand (NOAA)J. Reid (USGS)R. Rember (IARC)K. Shotwell (NOAA)L. Slater (USFWS)P. Stabeno (NOAA/PMEL)W. Stockhausen (NOAA)D. Stockwell (UAF)S. Strom (WWU)P. Sullivan (UW)J. Vollenweider (NOAA)J. Waite (UAF)S. Wang (S. Ecological)F. Wiese (NPRB)C. Wilson (NOAA)M. Zimmerman (NOAA)

Scope & Breadth

NOAA Fisheries

“How do environmental and anthropogenic processes, including climate change, affect trophic levels and dynamic linkages among

trophic levels, with emphasis on fish and fisheries, marine mammals, and seabirds within the Gulf of Alaska”

NOAA Fisheries

• Interdisciplinary Study• $17.5 million-study• 5 years (2010 – 2014)• >40 scientists from 11 institutions

• Gauntlet for Groundfishes• Sablefish• Walleye pollock• Pacific ocean perch• Pacific cod• Arrowtooth flounder

NOAA Fisheries

currents

temperature, nutrients

prey, predation

competition

habitat

What factors most affect how the 5 target species of groundfish get from here…

…to here?

The Gauntlet

NOAA Fisheries

Project Conceptual Model

climate & oceanography

transport

primary and secondary productivity

forage fishes

eggs & larvae

YOY & juveniles

seabirds & marine mammals

adults

5 target groundfish species

NOAA Fisheries

Research Components

Lower Trophic Level

Middle Trophic Level Upper Trophic Level

Modeling

Retrospective Analysis Group

• Historical datasets– Identified 100 historical datasets

• Baseline information on ecosystem processes• Identify mechanisms influencing recruitment• Identify long-term regional trends• All trophic level components

NOAA Fisheries

SST Variability (EOF analysis)

First mode (EOF 1, 70.8%) Second mode (EOF 2, 9.2%)

165W 160W 155W 150W 145W 140W 135W 130W

0.01 0.005 0 0.0145 0.029

1000 m isobath

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

165W 160W 155W 150W 145W 140W 135W 130W

-0.036 -0.018 0 0.0205 0.041

1000 m isobath

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

F. Mueter (UAF)

Spatial Patterns in Chl. a Anomalies K-means cluster analysis suggests 3 relatively distinct regions!

165W 160W 155W 150W 145W 140W 135W 130W

Jason Waite will give an in-depth analysis of Chl. a data Thursday @11:15

F. Mueter (UAF)

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

Axis 1

Ordination of Groundfish Species Comp. NMFS Bottom Trawl Survey

Strong differences in species comp.

east/west of 147o W

West of 147o WEast of 147o W

F. Mueter (UAF)

-170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -140 -135

East-West Gradients in Groundfish CPUE (-) and Species Diversity (-)

Trend component

0 5 10 15 20 25

Time of BP(s) 1415

Trend component

Alongshore distance (km)

0 5 10 15 20 25

Time of BP(s) 1531diversityCPUE

Alongshore distance (*100 km)

Catch-per-unit-effort (all species)

Species diversity(Shannon-Wiener)

Breakpointat ~148 oW

F. Mueter (UAF)

NOAA Fisheries

Gulf of Alaska

Summer & Fall Field Surveys

Oceanography:

NOAA Fisheries

Nutrients

Chlorophyll - a

Microzooplankton

http://bioloc.coas.oregonstate.edu/SherrLab/GLOBECposterciliates.jpg

Phytoplankton

http://www.dtplankton.com/images/PRB-1.jpg

Zooplankton & Ichthyoplankton

NOAA Fisheries

Zooplankton

Bongo60cm

505 µm Oblique

Larval Fish

Bongos20cm

153 µm oblique

Neuston30x50cm

Fish & Acoustics

NOAA Fisheries

Fish Abundance

Surface / midwater Rope Trawl (Top 25m)

Age-0 FishMidwater Acoustics

Caloric Content / LipidDiet

P.Cod Pollock

Seabirds & Marine Mammals:

NOAA Fisheries

At-sea Observations

Rhinoceros auklet

Tufted Puffin GPS Tag

DietStorm Petrel

Colony Observations

NOAA Fisheries

Frequency of occurrence of prey items in tufted puffin & rhi-noceros auklet diet samples (piscivores)

East Amatuli (tufted puf -fin)

St. Lazaria (rhinoceros auklet)

2011 Shore-based Seabird Diet

L. Slater (USFWS)

NOAA Fisheries

2010 Pilot Survey

NOAA Fisheries

Summer

Wyatt Fournier poster on larval & juv. Rockfish distribution and predation by adult salmon

NOAA Fisheries

Kalei Shotwell has a poster on benthic habitat research

• Hypothesis– Settlement to preferred habitat is one of the critical regulators of

early life survival throughout the offshore to nearshore gauntlet• Goal

– Characterize offshore to nearshore benthic habitat by region• Objectives

– Collect, clean, digitize, and grid available bathymetry, sediments, and habitat features

– Create base models of species specific preferred habitat and generate suitability maps for use in nearshore IBMs

Habitat Mapping

NOAA Fisheries

Sediments & Features

Features Rock Islet Floating kelp Rocky outcrop

Sediments Rocky Gravel Sand Mud

Bathymetry

Meters 0 10 25 50 100

Norcross et al. 1997Preferred Habitat Age-0 Flathead sole: 80-120 m, mud, central areas

Mean Low Low Water

Cross-sections

79,300 m2 87,600 m2

306,600 m2

Seafloor Measures Example Habitat Map

Kiliuda Bay Example

Courtesy of Mark Zimmermann, AFSC

NOAA Fisheries

MTL Overview

• nearshore survey w/ acoustics• offshore acoustics (UTL platform)• diet analysis: stomachs, FA, SI• condition and energy content

Kiliuda Bay

Izhut Bay

Barren Islands

Port Dick

Aialik Bay

Kenai Peninsula

Kodiak Island

NOAA Fisheries

MTL Nearshore Survey Sites

Whale Bay

St. Lazaria

Torch Bay/ Graves Harbor

Islas Bay

Salisbury Sound

NOAA Fisheries

MTL PlatformsPics and detail on methods

NOAA Fisheries

Nearshore Surveying, MTL-style

NOAA Fisheries

MTL Purse Seine Catches

NOAA Fisheries

LTL Overview

• Spring: LTL-only oceanography cruises• Summer/fall: UTL platform oceanography• Moorings• Drifters• Iron studies

NOAA Fisheries

LTL Sampling Design

NOAA Fisheries

LTL Sampling Design - Intensive

NOAA Fisheries

LTL: Spring 2011 Surface Chlorophyll

NOAA Fisheries

Multi Species Model

Indices of recruitment

Hydrography and ,zooplankton biomass

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 10km

Boundary and Initial Conditions

Lower Trophic Level Modelnested GOA-NPZ

Hydrography

Effect of environmentally-caused variability in recruitment on ecosystems components and fishing

Vertically Linked ModelsAtmospheric forcing products

Indices of LTL variability

Initial Larval Distributions

Retrospective Recruitment correlations

Offline IBM Models

PollockSablefish

POP Pacific Cod

Arrowtooth

UTL ComponentHypotheses

ModelingComponentHypotheses

Regime analysis

Plankton biomass, Nutrients,Production

Larval horizontal

and vertical distribution

nursery areas, diet, abundance, production and consumption

Habitat maps

Forage fish diet, abundance, production and consumption

Decision of which runs

Indices of physical variability

MTLComponent

LTL Component

UTL Component

Distribution of juveniles

Plankton process rates

Oceanographic Data

EOF Analysis,Regional statistical indices

Regional statistical indices

Longitudinal + trajectory

analysis,Genetics Model

Distribution of competitors and juveniles

NPZ IBM’s

Multi Species Model

Hydrography

Offline IBM Models

PollockSablefish

POP Pacific Cod

Regime analysis

Larval horizontal

Habitat maps

MTLComponent

LTL Component

UTL Component

Oceanographic Data

NPZ IBM’s

Model Validation

Modeling Overview

NOAA Fisheries

Multi Species Model

Hydrography

Offline IBM Models

PollockSablefish

POP Pacific Cod

Arrowtooth

Regime analysis

Larval horizontal

Habitat maps

MTLComponent

LTL Component

UTL Component

Oceanographic Data

NPZ IBM’s

Multi Species Model

Hydrography

Offline IBM Models

PollockSablefish

POP Pacific Cod

Regime analysis

Larval horizontal

Habitat maps

MTLComponent

LTL Component

UTL Component

Oceanographic Data

NPZ IBM’s

Model Validation

Modeling Overview

Individual Based Fish Models

Physical Forcing & Lower Trophic

Level Models

Field Observations

Model Validation

Multi-Species Models

Hypothesis Testing

Environmental Effect on

Recruitment

Regime Analysis

NOAA Fisheries

Modeling Results: Pattern Analysis

• purpose is to identify regimes for hindcasting

• main pattern seen relates to “Gyre Spinup”, and El Niño/PDO (strong/weak).

• seen especially in along shelf velocities, EKE, SSH and SST

NOAA Fisheries

ADULT SPAWN

Example: Pacific Cod Conceptual Model

Spawn:Feb-July (t0)

JUVENILES

YOLK SACLARVAE

FEEDING LARVAE

MOVE INSHORE

Hatch: t0 + 21-26 days at 4˚C

Flexion:10-17 mm

Size at hatch:3-4 mm SL

EPI-PELAGIC JUVENILES

Transformation:25-35mm

t0 + 4 weeks

1st feedingf(???)

Egg Development: f(time,temp,

depth,substrate)

YSL: Swim to surface, T=hatch+ 1

Diel Migration (after flexion)

Larval Depth: shallower when cold.

= Indicates ‘switch’ to next ‘Stage’= Modeled ‘Stage’

f(time,temp)Hatch:

Nursery area

NOAA Fisheries

Summary

• Comprehensive look at all trophic levels of the GOA ecosystem, from the shoreline out

to beyond the shelf break

• Focused on the environmental gauntlet that five major groundfish species must

navigate during early life

• Comparative approach: eastern vs. western GOA, seasonal and annual variability

NOAA Fisheries

The Gulf of Alaska Project: An Integrated Ecosystem Research Project

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Transcript of The Gulf of Alaska Project: An Integrated Ecosystem Research Project

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