The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energypd-symposium.org/archive/2017/files/csfd/03....

Stiesdal

The Future Challenges

Sustainable Energy

Henrik Stiesdal, 10.11.17

Stiesdal

Why work in sustainable energy?

Stiesdal

Source: NCDC, NOAA

The key driver is mitigation of climate change

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Monthly 5-year average

+0.017 deg.C per year

Stiesdal

Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Climate change is fundamentally all about CO2 - from us!

Stiesdal

Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Climate change is fundamentally all about CO2 - from us!

Stiesdal

Predicted temperature rise in 50 years

Source: NCDC, NOAA

Stiesdal

On a personal level we may learn to adapt to some of the effects …

Stiesdal

… Other effects will no be so easy to adapt to

Stiesdal residence

Stiesdal

One of the results will be hundreds of millions of climate refugees

Stiesdal

We know what the problem is ...

Stiesdal

... And we know the solutions!

Source: Siemens, First Solar

Stiesdal

The global scene - development in new power generation capacity

Source: UNEP, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016

Renewables

Fossil

Large hydro

Nuclear

Crude oil

53.5% of new invstments

Stiesdal

The global scene - development in new power generation capacity

Source: UNEP, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016

Renewables

Fossil

Large hydro

Nuclear

Crude oil

53.5% of new invstments

Stiesdal

Distribution of new renewables capacity, 2015, $Bn

0 50 100 150 200

Geothermal

Biofuels

Small hydro

Biomass

Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Stiesdal

The future looks better than before –

Source: IEA

Stiesdal

But we are far from done yet!

Source: IEA

Stiesdal

The global wind market development

Source: GWEC, IEA

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Annual Cumulated

$110 Bn.

Stiesdal

Making renewables happen

A preferred source of electricity must be

able to deliver the desired electric energy -

• to the necessary extent,

• without destroying the climate,

• without excessive public opposition,

• at an affordable cost, and

• when it is needed

Let us check it out for wind power

Stiesdal

To the necessary extent ...

- Det var osse meget sjovere, dengang vi selv producerede varmen.

Politiken, 25.08.89Miljøminister Lone Dybkjær oplyser, at de vandsenge, der findes rundt om i Danmarks sovekamre, bruger lige så meget strøm, som alle danske vindmøller fremstiller

Stiesdal

To the necessary extent ...

Source:

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Wind power share in Denmark

Stiesdal

Area use for offshore wind at 100% of load (pre-Brexit!)

Area use. Denmark

• DK load: 35 Bn. kWh/year

• Energy: 30 kWh/m2/year

• Area required: 1115 km2

• Corresponds to one offshore wind

farm measuring 35 km x 35 km

Area use, EU

• EU load: 2.800 Bn. kWh/year

• Energy: 30 kWh/m2/year

• Area required: 90.000 km2

• Corresponds to nine offshore wind

farms, each measuring 100 km x

100 km

Still plenty of sea available for

shipping and fishing!

Stiesdal

Without destroying the climate …

4824 12 12 11

Coal Gas (CC) PV(utility)

Largehydro

Wind off Nuclear Wind on

Source: Energinet.dk

Stiesdal

Without creating unnecessary public opposition ...

Stiesdal

How the opponent sees the wind farm!

Stiesdal

A typical modern offshore wind farm as seen from the beach

Stiesdal

Disruptive 2016 cost reductions in bottom-fixed offshore wind

Source: Berkeley National Lab

Vattenfall near-costal

Shell Borssele III-IV

DONG Borssele I-II

Vattenfall KriegersENEL, Morocco

DONG + EnBW, DE

Stiesdal

The message is sinking in!

Stiesdal

A classical picture of production and load

Source: EMD

Central

Decentral

Stiesdal

• We need to expand low-cost offshore

wind power

• We need to develop energy storage, and

• We need to be able to finance this effort

Stiesdal

Willy ”Slick” Sutton

Source: FBI

Stiesdal

Sutton’s Law

When asked why he robbed banks, Sutton said:

“Because that is where the money is!”

Reality – from Sutton’s memoir

“I never said it. The credit belongs to some enterprising reporter…

Why did I rob banks? Because I enjoyed it. I loved it. I was more alive

when I was inside a bank, robbing it, than at any other time in my life.”

Source: Sutton W, Linn E: Where the Money Was: The Memoirs of a Bank Robber. Viking Press (1976)

Stiesdal

Sutton’s Law

The incarnation of Focus

“Because that is where the money is!”

So – where is the money?

• Research

• Invention

• Innovation

• Industrialization

Stiesdal

The most spectacular piece of innovation in this century

1st iPhone

Released January 2007

The Apple phone was widely discussed prior to release –yet the “full package” was truly new

1st iPod

Released October 2001

The iPod and iTunes dramatically changed the music business, and the way we interact with music players

The iPad introduced an entirely new PC product line;reshaping centuries-old traditions of paper-based reading

1st iPad

Released

April 2010

Number of defendable patents:

Source: Apple

Stiesdal

The effects of the iPhone

Source: Vatican

Stiesdal

Innovation in wind power - growth in turbine size

Source: Siemens

Stiesdal

The first Bonus turbine – 30 kW, Tambohuse, 1981

Status

▪ Grid connected October 1981

▪ Still operating in its 35rd year

▪ Annual energy 18,500 kWh

▪ Total Energy 630,000 kWh

Source: Siemens

Stiesdal

The most recent Siemens turbine, 6 MW, Westermost Rough

Status

▪ Commissioned 2015

▪ Calculated lifetime 24 years

▪ Annual Energy 25.000.000 kWh

▪ Will in 10 days produce same energy

as the first turbine spent 35 years

producing

Source: Siemens

Stiesdal

The Siemens 8 MW rotor

Source: Siemens

Stiesdal

The 75 m blade for the Siemens 8 MW

Picture credit: Siemens

Stiesdal

The effect of the larger rotors on DK wind productivity

Source: Naturlig Energu

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Stiesdal

The money is also in industrialization!

Source: Ford Motor Company

Stiesdal

The learning curve, Li-ion batteries and crystalline PV modules

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Stiesdal

Floating wind power

Picture credit: Statoil

Stiesdal

The US offshore wind potential

Source: NREL

Stiesdal

The Japan offshore wind potential

Sources: JWPA

Stiesdal

Existing floating wind concepts

Picture credits: Siemens, Principle Power, Hitachi, U.Maine, MHI, Mitsui

Shared characteristics

• Very heavy – from 2500 tons to 10.000 tons for 7 MW class turbines

• Construction methods from shipbuilding and offshore oil and gas

• Fabrication typically at port of floater launch

• Build times typically measured in months

• Tens of thousands of man-hours per foundation for steel cutting, fitting, welding, handling, etc.

Stiesdal

First Floating Wind Farm, Statoil’s Hywind Scotland

Sources: Statoil

Stiesdal

The TetraSpar floating concept

• Offers disruptive reduction in Cost of Energy from

floating offshore wind

• Combines benefits from known floater concepts

• Is suitable for genuine industrialization

• Applies proven technologies

• Can be configured for installation at water depths

from 10 m to more than 1000 m

• Facilitates local manufacturing and truly global

application

Stiesdal

• Offers disruptive reduction in Cost of Energy from

floating offshore wind

• Combines benefits from known floater concepts

• Is suitable for genuine industrialization

• Applies proven technologies

• Can be configured for installation at water depths

from 10 m to more than 1000 m

• Facilitates local manufacturing and truly global

application

Solution element #2 - industrialization

Stiesdal

Taking advantage of a world champion …

The humble wind turbine tower

• Probably the world’s lowest cost per kg of

any large steel structure

• High quality welds and surface protection

• More than 20,000 towers manufactured

annually in highly industrialized processes

How did we get there?

• Separation of fabrication and installation

• Modularization and standardization

• No IP of any significance – costs kept low

through open competition

Picture credit: Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Association

Stiesdal

The keyword for TetraSpar – Industrialization the onshore way

Mindset

• Conventional thinking

• We have designed this structure – now,

how do we build it?

• TetraSpar thinking

• We need to manufacture this way –

now, how do we design it?

Concept

• Modular – all components factory-made,

transported by road

• Components assembled at quayside with

bolts (not exposed to sea water)

• Turbine mounted in harbor and towed to

site, no installation vessels

• Weight 1000-1500 t for 8 MW turbine

Stiesdal

How an assembly and installation area might look

Stiesdal

Launching floater using land-based crane

Stiesdal

Target cost trajectory for TetraSpar

Source: DoE, NREL, IEA

TetraSpar

Stiesdal

Getting floater ready, wind generator and turbine in background

Stiesdal

Testing

Stiesdal

wind power

Stiesdal

Thermal Battery Storage system

• Energy storage system based on storage

of thermal energy

• Storage medium crushed rock (basalt) in

insulated tanks

• Charging and discharging with compressor

and turbine, using thermodynamic

processes

• Charging: Heat pump cycle (150% eff.)

• Discharging: Brayton cycle (40% eff.)

• Round-trip efficiency: 60&

1 Motor

2 Compressor

3 Turbine

4 Cold storage tank

5 Hot storage tank

6 Recuperator

7 Cooler (not used during charging)

Stiesdal

Thermal Battery compared with known storage technologies

Topic Li-ion Pump H2O CAES Hydrogen SST

Technology readiness

charge-discharge

Mature Mature Mature Development

Mature

Technology readiness

storage unit

Mature Mature Mature Mature Development

Round-trip efficiency 90% 85% 40-60% 30-50% 35-65+%

Round-trip energy

High Low Low Medium Low

Energy density High Low Low High High

Footprint Small Large Small Small Small

Scalability, power 0.01-25 MW 50-1000 MW 5-100 MW 1-1000 MW 1-1000+ MW

Scalability, energy 0.01-25 MWh 100-10.000

10-1000

1-100.000

Location requirement None Special

topography

Special

geology

Special

geology

Raw material use High None None Moderate

(electrolyzer)

Stiesdal

Storage costs depend on charging costs

6099 119 99

395 409

703 693

420 440

735 725

Charge @ $0/MWh Charge @ $20/MWh

• 24 h storage capacity• 1 charge-discharge

cycle per day• DoD 50%

Stiesdal

Google pumped-heat energy storage system

Source: Bloomberg

Stiesdal

wind power

Stiesdal

The Stanford Analysis

Source: Stanford

Three related challenges, confront

scaling up clean energy spending in

line with the IEA’s 450 Scenario:

• The Quantity Problem

• The Quality Problem

• The Location Problem

Stiesdal

Source: Stanford

The Quantity Problem

• The annual investments needed to

keep global warming under 2

degrees C would absorb a very

significant portion of the world’s

total annual investible capital;

• On average, institutional investors

put to work $3.4 trillion annually

• The IEA’s 450 Scenario depends

on investors purchasing clean

energy stocks and bonds, or

directly lending to (“debt”) and

investing in (“equity”) clean energy

projects for $2.3 trillion annually.

Sustainable energy requires 2/3 of

all annual investments

Stiesdal

Source: Stanford

The Quality Problem

• The key generation technologies

(wind and solar) have reached

universal bankability at western-

world utility scale.

• However, many applications of

wind and solar, and many

supporting technologies (electricity

networks, other low-CO2

technologies, energy savings,

etrc.) are seen as having higher

risk profiles

• A large part of the investment

money available is substantially

very risk averse

The risk profiles don’t match

Stiesdal

Source: Stanford

The Location Problem

• We must triple global clean energy

spending within an annual global

pool of investible capital that is

mostly held in OECD nations.

• Much of the investments will have

to be spent in the non-OECD

developing world to deploy clean

energy where it is most needed,

with all the attendant risk.

The investments are needed where

the money isn’t

Stiesdal

The future trajectory - the Lazard LCoE Analysis

Source: Lazard

Stiesdal

The Lazard LCoE Analysis

Source: Lazard

Stiesdal

Lazard’s LCoE Values for Wind and PV, 2012-2016

Source: Lazard

2010 2015 2020 2025

Wind Solar PV

Gas reference

Stiesdal

We are up against a lot of inertia …

Stiesdal

… But we have a bright future in sustainable energy!

Status

• We have beaten coal and are beating gas on good wind and solar sites

• We will ultimately beat gas on all relevant sites

The biggest challenges are

• Inertia

• Investment constraints

What we need to continue is

• Innovation, also on finances

• Industrialization

If we succeed

• The question across the world will change from

• “How can we afford it”

• to

• “How can we afford not to?”

Stiesdal

Disruption – 5th Avenue, New York City, Easter 1900

Source:New York City Library

Spot the car!

Stiesdal

Disruption – 5th Avenue, New York City, Easter 1913

Spot the horse!

Source:New York City Library

Stiesdal

Your moment of Zen

Siemens 8 MW wind turbine

▪ The future offshore workhorse

▪ Annual Energy Production 25

million kWh at an offshore site

▪ 50 pcs. 8 MW at an offshore

site have an AEP equal to the

annual electricity consumption

of the 290.000 households in

Copenhagen

▪ Likely to be the lowest cost

source of green electricity from

2020 onwards

▪ Designed and built in Denmark

That is kind of OK!

Stiesdal

Thanks for your attention

Henrik Stiesdal

hst@stiesdal.com

The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energypd-symposium.org/archive/2017/files/csfd/03....

Documents

Transcript of The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energypd-symposium.org/archive/2017/files/csfd/03....

360 Cmr 10.000 Sewer Use

Scheda Ente Richiesta di contributo fino a € 10.000

How To Make $10.000 Monthly From Affiliate Marketing? …alexjuly.com/download/my-success-story.pdf · How To Make $10.000 Monthly From Affiliate Marketing? Real-time experiment!

Tes Kraepelin 10.000

1 TraditionalNeighborhoodDevelopments(TNDs) What they are and how they will affect CSFD.

TalentLMS API Documentation · Get test answers ..... 38 Get survey answers ... Plus 10.000 Premium 10.000

57 10 Presentation 10.000 Lectures

Is combating desertification a global public good? Elements of an answer... Les dossiers thématiques du CSFD. Issue 1. 32 pp.

(ßJ150g) JAN4582171533298 ¥10.000 -S-11 77

Manual de instalacao gcp 10.000 light flex

Slow Food's 10.000 Ark of Taste Project - Philippines ...

C.Rhodes(ed.) - european-lisp-symposium.org · Tutorial:ComputerVisionwithAllegroCommonLispandVIGRACL 53 BenjaminSeppkeandLeonieDres ler-Fis er ... VILT, Clozure, Ravenbrook, LispWorks…

Mediaglobe & Contentus - from 10.000 Feet Above Ground

French Numbers Up to 10.000 in Alphabetic Sort

SERIES MSH - МоторимпексA10 A25 – – 3 13 2 3 6 19 2,4 4,6 7,8 22 3 6 10 25 > 10.000 > 2.000 ≥ 200 > 1,5 > 10.000 > 10.000 > 10.000 > 35 7 7 7 7 20 8 1,5 – Filtration

MICROBIOLOGIA DE SISTEMAS DE TRATAMIENTO DE …triton-cyted.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/6-Microbiología.pdf · Industria azucarera 5.000-10.000 Industria maderera 8.000-10.000

2004 # * est.1960 * 10.000 copies worldwide * your ad $10E ...

The Future Challenges of Sustainable Energypd-symposium.org/files/csfd/03. CSFD-Stiesdal.pdf · Stiesdal © Stiesdal 2017, All Rights Reserved 1 The Future Challenges of Sustainable

Why we should invest in arid areas? Les dossiers thématiques du CSFD. Issue 5. 40 pp.

Fighting wind erosion. one aspect of the combat against desertification. Les dossiers thématiques du CSFD. N°3. May 2011. CSFD/Agropolis International, Montpellier, France. 44 pp.