The Fate of the Amazon Forest in the 21 Century - Fapesp · The Fate of the Amazon Forest in the...

The Fate of the Amazon Forest in the 21st Century

Carlos A. Nobre

Center for Earth System Science National Institute for Space Research – INPE,

Brazil

Photo: Alexander Torrenegra

Microsoft – FAPESP Environmental Science Workshop

São Paulo, 11 November 2010

Agradecimentos …

Gilvan Sampaio

Manoel Cardoso

Marina Hirota

Luiz Salazar

Laura Borma

Julia Reid

Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE

Temperate Grasslands &

Woodlands

Temperate Broadleaf Forest

Tropical Dry Forest

Tropical Grasslands

Tropical Coniferous Forest

Mediterranean Forests

Tropical Moist Forest

0 50 100

Percent of habitat (biome) remaining

Habitat Loss to 1990

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Global Changes and the Earth System:The Amazon as a Paradigm

The natural system in the Amazon at a glance...

• Largest contiguous tropical forest

(over 6 million km2)

• 10%-15% of the Earth’s biodiversity

• 18% of fleshwater input into the global

oceans

• Large heat source of the atmosphere

(1 C to 2 C/day tropospheric heating

rate during rainy season)

• Large carbon storage in the biomass

(≈ 90 to 120 Gton C)

The Amazon as a regional entity of the Earth System!

Projected deforestation scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon

Land use and cover change

Animated map from Arnaldo Carneiro

Annual Deforestation rate for the Brazilian Amazon

Source: INPE (www.inpe.br)

CATTLE RANCHING INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE-SOYSELECTIVE LOGGING

US$ 20 a 70 per ha/year US$ 100 to 400 per ha/25- to 30-year cycle

US$ 100 to 200 per ha/year

US$ 2.000 to 2.400 per ha (at US$ 20 per ton C)

CATTLESELECTIVE LOGGING

Net profitability of current economic activities in the Amazon and versus the potential for REDD

Evapotranspiration

seasonality in the

Amazon tropical

forest and savannaSource: Rocha (2004)

Cerrado s.s. SP

Floresta trop RO

Floresta trop Manaus

Floresta trop Santarém

Forest

Savanna

Forest

Savanna

Biomes of tropical South America and precipitation seasonality

Sombroek 2001, Ambio

Number of consecutive months with less than 50 mm rainfall

Annual Rainfall

Biomes of South America

The importance of rainfall seasonality (short dry season) for maintaining tropical forests all over Amazonia

Tropical Forest-Savanna

Boundary

Tropical Forest

Shrubland

Savanna

The Hypothesis of Amazonian ‘Savannization’

• Nobre et al. (1991) proposed that a post-deforestation climatein Southern Amazonia would be warmer, drier and with longerdry season, typical of the climate envelope of the tropical savanna (Cerrado) domain of Central South America.

• ‘Savannization’ in this context is a statement on regional climate change and not intended to describe complexecological processes of vegetation substitution.

Nobre et al. 1991, J. Climate

Modeling Deforestation and Biogeography in Amazonia

Current Biomes Post-deforestation

“1” Tropical Forest“6” Savanna

‘Tipping points’ analysis framework

Lenton et al. 2008

"the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable” Walsh (2007)

Biomes for South America.

After Olsen et al. (2001).

Is the current Climate-

Vegetation

equilibrium in

Amazonia the only

stable equilibrium

possible?

Forest

PHOTOSYNTHESIS

BALANCE

HETEROTROPHIC

RESPIRATION

AUTOTROPHIC

RESPIRATION

T and P

Diagrama esquemático simplificado do sub-modelo de ciclo de carbono proposto, apresentando os processos que influenciam em

cada compartimento. T: temperatura; P: precipitação; w: água no solo; Vm: taxa de carboxilação da Rubisco; LAI: índice de área

foliar; NPP: produtividade primária líquida; rc: resistência do dossel; E: evapotranspiração. Fonte: Lapola, 2007.

CLIMATE

BIOMES

CLIMATE VARIABLES BIOME TYPES

Oyama and Nobre, GRL, 2003; Oyaman and Nobre, J. Climate, 2004; Cardoso et al. (2007); Lapola et al., Proc.

Braz. Acad. Sci., 2008; Cardoso et al., Biologica, 2009 ; Lapola et al., GBC, 2009 (accepted)

Impact of using the new fire parameterization in the biomeestimates of the CPTEC Potential Vegetation Model:

Accounting for fires corrected important differences between previousmodel estimates and reference data for the position of natural savannasin the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia that wereinitially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forests.

Major vegetation types:(1) broadleaf-evergreen trees (tropical forest), (2) broadleaf-deciduous trees (temperate forest)(3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (mixed forest)(4) needleleaf-evergreen trees (boreal forest)(5) needleleaf-deciduous trees (larch), (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (savanna)(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)(8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial groundcover (caatinga)(9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (semi-desert)(10) dwarf trees and shrubs with groundcover (tundra)(11) bare soil (desert)(13) ice.

CPTEC-INPE Potential Vegetation Model - PVM

Biome changing – bi-stability in the Amazon

Oyama and Nobre, 2003 GRL

Two Biome-Climate Equilibrium States found for South America

Soil Moisture

Rainfallanomalies

-- current state (a)-- second state (b)

Current potential vegetation

Second StateResults of CPTEC-DBM Initial Conditions : desert

Savanna

Forest

What does it take to tip the equilibrium between the two stable states?

Ecosystems of Amazonia - environmental drivers of change

FireClimateChange

ClimateExtremes

Complex Earth System Models are needed to study all these interacting and simultaneous drivers

Total deforested area (clear-cutting) is 730,000 km2

in Brazilian Amazonia (18%) (INPE, 2008)S

Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental

Change in Amazonia

DROUGHTS FOREST FIRES

DEFORESTATIONGLOBAL WARMING

Warming of 0.8°C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., 2004. J Climate); IPCC AR4: 3°C to > 5°C in 2100!

Forest fire frequency ↑ (Nepstad et al., 2006)Droughts (e.g., 2005) can become frequent (Cox et al., 2008 Nature)

Tropical forest

Savanna state

triggered by climate

change or

deforestation

Stability of savanna

enhanced by increased

droughts and fires

Tipping points: temperature, rainfall and deforestation area

Tipping points of the Earth System – Application to Amazonia

Cardoso and Borma, 2010

Land Cover Change: Deforestation, Forest

Degradation

Secondary Drivers

Primary Drivers

Environmental Drivers of Change

Climate Change: CO2,temperature,

rainfall

Droughts Forest Fires

Changes in Species Composition

Tree Mortality x Tree Growth

Ecosystem Responses

Savannization/forest dieback

“Secondarization”

Short term(interannual to interdecadal)

Long term(interdecadal to

centennial)

What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to a suite of environmental drivers of change?

LAND USE AND COVER CHANGE

Land Cover Change:Deforestation, Forest

Degradation

Secondary Drivers

Primary Drivers

Climate Change/ CO2

Ecosystem Responses

What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to LUCC scenarios ?

centennial)

Sampaio et al. 2007

Post-Deforestation Equilibrium Potential Biomes

Deforestation only

Land cover

scenario

Post-deforestation

equilibrium vegetation

GLOBAL WARMING

Land Cover Change:Deforastatio, Foresst

Degradation

Secondary Drivers

Primary Drivers

Climate Change: temperature,

rainfall

Ecosystem Responses

What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to Global Warming scenarios of climate change?

centennial)

Global climatic scenarios for South America

Anomalies projections of temperature (°C/day) for South America for the period of 2090-2099 (A2 Scenario) in relation to the base period of 1961-1990 for 15 different globalclimatic models available through IPCC.

Fundamental Question and Main Conclusions …

Seasonality of rainfall as a critical parameter for tropical forests; the role of fire to set forest-savanna boundary

Bi-stability of vegetation-climate equilibrium states in Amazonia (state 1: forest dominated; state 2: forest-savanna)

Drivers of change: global warming, deforestation, droughts, fire

Tipping points not to be crossed for maintenance of the Amazon forest:

∆TGlobal Warming < 3 °C (< 3.5 °C in Amazonia)

Total Deforested Area < 40%

Question: Are there ‘tipping’ points in the Amazon

that should not be crossed ever?

Global climatic scenarios for South America

Anomalies projections of precipitation (mm/day) for South America for the period of2090-2099 (A2 Scenario) in relation to the base period of 1961-1990 for 15 differentglobal climatic models available through IPCC.

Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for 2090-2099 from 15 AOGCMsfor the A2 emissions scenarios, calculated by using CPTEC-INPE PVM.

Consequences on the Biome distribution in tropical South America

Salazar et al., 2007 GRL

Climate change

Grid points where more than 75%of the models used (> 11 models)coincide as projecting the futurecondition of the tropical forest andthe savanna in relation with thecurrent potential vegetation. Thefigure also shows the grid pointswhere a consensus amongst themodels of the future condition ofthe tropical forest was not found.for the periods (a) 2020-2029, (b)2050-2059 and (c) 2090-2099 forB1 GHG emissions scenario and(d), (e) and (f) similarly for A2 GHGemissions scenario.

2050-2059 2090-20992020-2029

Salazar et al., 2007 GRL

Consequences on the Biome distribution in Tropical South America

SRES B1 SRES B1 SRES B1

SRES A2 SRES A2 SRES A2

Climate change

Savanna replaces Forest

Land Cover Change: Deforestation, Forest

Degradation

Secondary Drivers

Primary Drivers

Climate Change: CO2

Ecosystem Responses

centennial)

Lapola et al. GBC, 2009

Climate change

Taking into account the potential positive effect of CO2 on forest resilience

How does the forest respond to increased atmospheric CO2?

Only Climate

760 ppm

½ CO2

“fertilization”

effect

Land Cover Change:Deforastatio, Foresst

Degradation

Secondary Drivers

Primary Drivers

Climate Change: temperature,

rainfall and CO2

Ecosystem Responses

centennial)

Figure . Natural vegetation reference map [Salazar, 2009] and actual potential vegetation simulated by CPTEC-PVM2.0Reg model under the 1961–1990 mean climate. The division of the Amazon domain is indicated by the continuous box in the natural vegetation map. Region 1: Southeast (5.25°S–13.75°S; 50.75°W–63.75°W); Region 2: Northeast (4.75°N–5.25°S; 50.75°W–63.75°W); Region 3: Northwest (4.75°N–5.25°S; 63.75°W; 75.25°W); Region 4: Southwest (5.25°S–13.75°S; 63.75°W–75.25°W).

Salazar and Nobre, 2010 GRL

Potential Vegetation Simulated by the PVM2.0Reg (50 km)

Vegetation types calculatedby the vegetation model

Figure. Potential dominantbiome simulated by CPTEC-PVM2.0Reg for differenttemperature anomalies,precipitation changes, andfertilization effects (0%, 25%and 100%) for SRES A2climate scenario for theperiod 2070–2099, and forthe regions of Amazonia(indicated in Figure 1): (a–c)southeast, (d–f) northeast,(g–i) northwest and (j–l)southwest Amazonia.The climate anomaliesprojected by regional (ETACCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P)and selected global (GISS]ER,ECHAM5, HadCM3 and M:average of fifteen globalmodels from IPCC) modelsplotted for each region.

Potential Dominant Biome in Response to ∆T, ∆P and CO2 “fertilization” effect

Global Models1: GISS-ER2: ECHAM53: HadCM3

Regional Models4: ETA CCS5: RegCM36: HadRM3P

M: IPCC mean A2 scenario

TROPICAL FOREST

SAVANNA

SEASONAL FOREST

SHRUBLAND

Most models are at the transition TROPICAL/ SEASONAL FOREST to SAVANNAwhile only two models are at the savanna

Total deforested area (clear-cutting) is 730,000 km2 in

Brazilian Amazonia (18%) (INPE, 2008)

Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of

Environmental Change in Amazonia

FOREST FIRES

DEFORESTATIONGLOBAL WARMING

Warming of 0.8 °C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., 2004. J Climate); IPCC AR4: 3 C to > 5 C in 2100!

Forest fire frequency ↑ (Nepstad et al., 2006)

What are the synergistic effect of global warming + deforestation +

fires?

DEFORESTATION + CLIMATE CHANGE + FIRE

Grid point for 75% consensusprojecting the future condition oftropical South American biomes inrelation to current potentialvegetation, for the time slices (A) 2025+ 20% deforestation + fire and (B) 2075+ 50% deforestation + fire for the A2GHG emissions scenario, and (C), (D)similarly for the B1 GHG emissionsscenario. In these maps, “noconsensus” means that fewer than 12models agree with the transition.“Loss” means consensus forsubstitution of that biome class.

Atmospheric CO2

Concentrations (ppm)

Deforestation + Climate Changefor Emission Scenario A2

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire

Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change

B1 B1 A2A2

DEFORESTATION

…and if deforestation is 50% by 2075?

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow?

…and if deforestation is 100%by 2100?

2025 2075 2100

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2)

2025 2075 2100

…and by 2075? What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? …and by 2100?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORESTATION

2025 2075 2100

66%59%

60%21%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? …and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE

SCENARIO A2 by 2075?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORESTATION + FIRE

2025 2075 2100

61%60% 21%

57% 56%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2025?

…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2075?

Preliminary attempt at determining quantitative ‘tipping’ points for collapse of the Amazon forests

Tentatively, thresholds for the maintenance of therainforests are:

• ∆TGlobal Warming < 3 C (3.5 C in the Amazon)

• Total Deforested Area < 40%

• Forest fires decrease even further the resilence oftropical forests in the Amazon

• The role of CO2 “fertilization” is unkown and couldincrease resilience

„Savannization‟ of Amazonia and „Aridization‟ of NE Brazil

Risks to Tropical Biomes

Forest

SavannaCaatinga

Savannas

In Amazonia

Semi-Desert

In NE Brazil

Fontes: Oyama and Nobre, 2003 e Salazar et al., , 2007; Sampaio et al., 2007; Nobre et al., 2009;

Nobre and Borma, 2009; Salazar and Nobre, 2010

‘Tipping’ Points for Amazonia∆TGlobal Warming > 3.5 C; Total deforested area > 40%

Can we avoid that this … .

Fire...

….turns into this?

“The Economist”

Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries andDomestic and International policies

∆Tglobal warming < 3°C (3.5°C in the Amazon)

Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries andInternational policies

Desflore

tion (

² per

Deforestation in Amazonia 1977-2009 in km² per year

* annual average per decade Data from INPE, 2009

7.500 km²

in 2009

What public policies are needed to sustain this reduction?

As of 2009, 17% of

Amazonia was

deforested.

High Deforestation Rates up to 2004!

500 km

Amazonia in the 2050 BAU Scenario:Deforested 2,698,735 km2

Forest 3,320,409 km2

Non-forest 1,497,685 km2

Soares-Filho, et al. 2006, Nature33 Pg C

Land use change - scenarios

Desflore

tion (

² per

Deforestation in Amazonia 1977-2009 in km² per year

* annual average per decade Data from INPE, 2009

7.000 km²

in 2009

What public policies are needed to sustain this reduction?

As of 2009, 17% of

Amazonia was

deforested.

60% decline in deforestation rates

from 2004 to 2009!

Amazonia in the 2050 Governance Scenario:Deforested 1,655,734 km2

Forest 4,363,410 km2

Non-forest 1,497,685 km2

500 km17 Pg C Soares-Filho, et al. 2006, Nature

Land use change - scenarios

Policies to rapidly reduce deforestation (e.g.,maintaining 80% of forests in rural landholdings as it iswith the current land use policy); depends by andlarge on Brazilian policies; apparent success in the last5 years

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

10Actual emissions: CDIAC

Actual emissions: EIA

450ppm stabilisation

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

30Actual emissions: CDIAC

Observed

relative increase

2000-2008: 3.5%

IPCC scenarios:

1.6-2.7%

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009

(Avgs.)

CO2 emissions from fossil fuels

Concentrations in 2008

CO2 385 ppm

CO2-equivalent 463 ppm

CO2-equivalent with aerosols 396 ppm

A concentration of 450 ppm CO2-eq (plus aerosols) gives a

50/50 chance to a temperature increase of less than 2°C

Limiting global warming < 2°C by early and sharpreductions of global emissions (reducing this riskdepends little on Amazonian countries policies).

Policies to rapidly reduce deforestation (e.g.,maintaining 80% of forests in rural landholdings as it iswith the current land use policy); depends by andlarge on Brazilian policies; apparent success in the last5 years

Obrigado!Thank you!

20% deforest

B1-2025-Cchange

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075 2100

B1 B1 A2A2

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075 2100

Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

B1 B1 A2A2

DEFORESTATION

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1)

2025 2075 2100

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025?

…and by 2075?

…and by 2100?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075 2100

66%75%

…and by 2075? What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? …and by 2100?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) + DEFORESTATION

2025 2075 2100

34%61%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025?

… and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2075? … and if 100% is deforested and under the

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2100?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORESTATION

2025 2075 2100

34%61%

60%21%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? …and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE

SCENARIO A2 by 2075?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (B1) + DEFORASTATION + FIRE

2025 2075 2100

64%57%

60%21%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2025?…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORESTATION + FIRE

2025 2075 2100

61%60% 21%

57% 56%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2025?

2025 2075 2100

Nobre et al., 2010

in preparation

Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change

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20% deforest

B1-2025-Cchange

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075 2100

B1 B1 A2A2

Deforestation + Climate Changefor Emission Scenario B1

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

B1 B1 A2A2

DEFORESTATION

2025 2075 2100

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under CLIMATE CHANGE by 2025?

…and by 2075?

…and by 2100?

2025 2075 2100

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE + DEFORESTATION (Scenario B1)

66%75%

34%78%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon

by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is

abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A1 by 2025?

…and if 50% is deforested and

under the CLIMATE CHANGE

SCENARIO B1 by 2075?

2025 2075 2100

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075 2100

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2025?…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075?

20% deforest

B1-2025-Cchange

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

2025 2075

B1 B1 A2A2

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075

B1 B1 A2A2

DEFORESTATION

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025?

…and by 2075?

75%78%

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075

…and by 2075?

75% 74%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) + DEFORESTATION

2025 2075

75% 74%64%78%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025?

… and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2075?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORASTATION

2025 2075

75% 74%64%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025?

…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2075?

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

2025 2075

75% 74%64%78%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2025?

…and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075?

60% 20%

20% deforest

B1-20%-2025 -Fire

B1-20%-2025 +Fire

A2-2025-Cchange

A2-20%-2025 -Fire

A2-20%-2025 +Fire

50% deforest

B1-2075-Cchange

B1-50%-2075 -Fire

B1-50%-2075 +Fire

A2-2075-Cchange

A2-50%-2075 -Fire

A2-50%-2075 +Fire

100% deforest

B1-2100-Cchange

A2-2100-Cchange

CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORASTATION + FIRE

2025 2075

75% 74%64%78%

What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 andFIRE by 2025?

61% 60%

57% 56%20%

Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences

Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2005)

(Area)

van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated

Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones

Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2)

Atmospheric CO2 and the cumulative carbon budget starting from 1750

J. L. Sarmiento et al., 2010

Cumulative carbon fluxes from 1750 onwards of the main sources and sinks of the global carbon cycle including

fossil fuel emissions, the atmospheric CO2 increase, ocean uptake, and net land flux. The atmospheric increase

is calculated from a spline fit to the ice core and Mauna Loa CO2 data from (a), the ocean uptake is based on

the ocean inversion of Mikaloff Fletcher et al. (2006) scaled to the respective year assuming a linear relationship

between ocean uptake and atmospheric CO2 and the net land flux is computed by the difference Net land flux =

fossil fuel emissions – atmospheric CO2 increase – ocean uptake. The symbols are estimates from Sabine et

al. (2004) for the period from 1800 to 1994 summed to the 1790 to 1810 average of our estimates.

Notice:

Cumulative carbon

fluxes for Net Land

Flux is decreasing

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009

CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change

Fossil fuel

Land use change

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

Trends and regional distribution of land and ocean carbon sinks

Global flux estimates for 1960 to 1988 and 1989 to 2003/7 obtained by averaging the

fluxes shown in Fig. 1 and Table 2. The shaded region on the right summarizes the

post-1988/1989 bottom-up land source and sink components discussed in the text.

J. L. Sarmiento et al., 2010

Tropical Forests: sources and sinks

of carbon

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