1©2019 AIR Worldwide CONFIDENTIAL—FOR WEBINAR ATTENDEES ONLY 1

The Addition of Great

Britain Storm Surge to

AIR’s Extratropical

Cyclone Model for

Europe

Richard M. Yablonsky, Ph.D.

Alastair Clarke, Ph.D.

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Agenda

Introduction

Updates to the Hazard Component

Hazard Model Validation

Updates to the Vulnerability Component

Modeled Losses

Upcoming Software Changes

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Introduction

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History of AIR’s Coastal Flood Model for Great Britain

20132000 20192010

Great Britain

Vulnerability

Update

Addition of

Great Britain

Storm Surge

to EU ETC

Great Britain

Exposure

Update

Great Britain

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Changes in Model Configuration

Previously:

AIR Coastal Flood Model for

Great Britain

2019 Update:

Storm Surge sub-peril in the AIR

Extratropical Cyclone Model

for Europe

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What Is Storm Surge?

Shallow Water Deep Sea

Sea Defenses

Bathymetry

Topography

WindPressure

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Extratropical Cyclones Generate Storm Surge

in Great Britain Historical Storm Tracks

Longitude

Latitu

de

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Historical Events Affect Both the West and East Coasts

Southerly wind pushes water into

Irish Sea

Northerly wind pushes water into

the Channel

Storm Anne (2014): West Coast Example*

*another example is Storm Undine (1991)

Storm Xaver (2013): East Coast Example**

**another famous example is North Sea Flood (1953)

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Updates to the Hazard

Component

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• Expanded domain covers all of England and Wales

• Uses Delft3D Flexible Mesh

• Dynamic simulation of tides

and surge

• Driven by wind and pressure

from EU ETC model catalog (see Keshtpoor, Carnacina, and Yablonsky, 2019: New

Statistical Approach to Select Coastal Flood-Producing

Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic

Catalog. J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Eng.)

• Surge depth at 10-meter

resolution via downscaling

and topography subtraction

New Hydrodynamic Coastal Flood Model

Hydrodynamic Domain Coarse Mesh

Current Coverage

Fine Mesh:

New Coverage

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CORINE Land Use/Land Cover Database

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• Data can be mapped to a Manning friction coefficient

• Helps to ensure proper flood extent over land

• Particularly challenging in urban areas

CORINE Land Use/Land Cover Database

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Incorporation of the Latest Levee Data Sources

• 2016 vintage defense data

set for the entire United Kingdom: defined crest

heights, material, quality

condition, and design type

• Undefined heights were extracted from 2- to10-

meter topography (DTM)

sources

UK Environment Agency Spatial Flood Defences Dataset

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Thames River Defenses

• The Thames Barrier was completed in 1984

• During construction, flood defenses were raised by ~2 meters for ~30 km downstream to match the Barrier

• Defenses for ~5 km upstream were also raised to increase protection and match protection of Central London

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Accounting for Breached Levees in Addition to

Overtopping Levees

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Hazard Model Validation

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Storm Surge Model Validation at Great Britain

Tide Gauges for Four Storms

Tide Gauge Locations

Four Storms Combined:

1953, Undine, Xaver, and Anne

RMSETWL= 0.32 m

RMSEWS = 0.28 m

Observed Water Elevation (Meters)M

od

ele

d W

ate

r Ele

va

tio

n (

Me

ters

)

Total water level

Perfect lineWind setup (no tide)

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Modeled Pressure, Wind, and Surge During

North Sea Flood of 1953

a) Sea level pressure

b) West-to-east wind

speed (U) ~180 meters

above ground

c) South-to-north wind

speed (V) ~180 meters

above ground

d) Water level due to

wind setup (without

tide)

a) SLP (mb) b) U (m/s)

c) V (m/s) d) Surge (m)

60

55

50

60

55

50

Latitu

de

(°)

-10 0 10 -10 0 10

1030

1020

1010

1000

990

980

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

20

10

0

-10

2

1

0

-1

-2

Longitude(°)

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Modeled Water Level Near Thames Barrier

from a Storm Like the 1953 North Sea Flood

Time (Hours)

Tide Only

Surge Only

Linear Tide & Surge

Total Water Level

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-40 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

~7.3 m (height of Thames Barrier)

~5.4 m (like North Sea

1953 storm)

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Flood Extent Validation for the 1953 North Sea

Flood Event (Thames River)

ThamesBarrier

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Flood Extent Validation Along the Humber River

for 2013 Storm Xaver

Hull, UK

Humber

River

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City of Hull Close Up: Storm Xaver in 2013

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City of Hull Close Up: Storm Xaver “Today”

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Boston, UK

The Haven River

Insufficient resolution (~220 m)

for water to reach Boston, UK

Flood Validation for Storm Xaver in Boston, UK:

Fine Mesh Versus Super-Fine Mesh

Boston, UK

The Haven River

Sufficient resolution (up to 35 m)

for water to reach Boston, UK

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Updates to the

Vulnerability Component

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Component-Level Damage Functions

Building

Structure Fixtures Services

Me

an

Da

ma

ge

Ra

tio

Flood Depth

Building Structure

Services

Fixtures and Fittings

Overall Building Coverage

Building and Component Damage

Functions for a Retail Shop

0%

20%

40%

60%

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Reduction in Commercial Building Vulnerability

Relative to Residential

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Previous Version Updated Version

Re

lativ

e V

uln

era

bili

tyResidential Commercial

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• Addition of marine

cargo, marine hull,

industrial facilities, wind

turbine, and builder’s risk

• Incorporation of

unknown damage

functions at CRESTA level

• Updated secondary

damage distributions

Vulnerability Updates Leverage a Unified

Framework Across Models in Europe

Marine

Industrial Facilities

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Da

ma

ge

Ra

tio

Flood Depth

67K Claims from Four Historical Floods Inform

the Latest Secondary Uncertainty Distributions

• In the new model, there is lower

probability of zero or full

damage

• Distinct secondary uncertainty

distributions for Residential and

Commercial risks

Pro

ba

bili

ty

Damage Ratio

Previous Updated

Mean Damage

Ratio

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Custom Flood Protection

Presence of Basement

Floor of Interest

First-Floor Height

Custom Elevation

Support for New Secondary Risk Characteristics

Foundation Type

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• Utilized best available building

footprint data sets to

accurately locate risks

• Updated construction splits,

replacement costs, coverage

splits, and policy conditions

• Improved automobile

valuation methodology

• Identified high-value industrial

facilities

New Industry Exposures Modeled at 90-Meter Resolution

London, UK

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New Industry Exposures Modeled at 90-Meter Resolution

1 km

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New Industry Exposures Modeled at 90-Meter Resolution

1 km

90 m

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Modeled Losses

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Observed Data Sources: UK Met Office, Munich Re, ABI

Historical Event Loss Validation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

North Sea Flood (1953 Vintage)

Loss

es

(GB

P B

illio

ns)

Model Ground-Up Estimated

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Historical Event Loss Validation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Undine (1991) Xaver (2013 Vintage) Anne (2014)

Loss

es

(GB

P M

illio

ns)

Flood Events

Model Insured Observed

Observed Data Sources: UK Met Office, Munich Re, ABI

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AOL 2 4 5 10 15 20 50 100 200 500 1,000 2,000 5,000 10,000

Loss

Return Period (Years)

Exceedance Probability of Insurable Gross Loss

X = No SoP

V = Vintage SoP

M = Modern SoP

2013 M

2013 V

1953 M

1991

2014

1953 X

1953 V

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AOL 2 4 5 10 15 20 50 100

Loss

Return Period (Years)

Exceedance Probability of Insurable Gross Loss

V = Vintage SoP

M = Modern SoP

2013 M

2013 V

1953 M

1991

2014

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Insured Aggregate Loss Comparison: Adding Surge

AAL 2 5 10 20 25 50 100 200 500 1,000

Loss

Return Period (Years)

Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture, and Auto

Lines of Business

Wind Only

Wind & Updated

Surge

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Insured Aggregate Loss Comparison: Wind & Surge

AAL 2 5 10 20 25 50 100 200 500 1,000

Loss

Return Period (Years)

Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture, and Auto

Lines of Business

Wind & Previous

Surge

Wind & Updated

Surge

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Upcoming Software

Changes

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Functional Changes in Touchstone

Touchstone 2018

Touchstone 2019

*

*

* Europe Extratropical Cyclone is still categorized as a “Tropical Cyclone” peril in Touchstone

43©2019 AIR Worldwide CONFIDENTIAL—FOR WEBINAR ATTENDEES ONLY 43

1) Events in the Database are tagged as either Extratropical Cyclone (E), Surge (S) or Combined (C).

2) In Touchstone® 2019, you can run the previous and new versions of the GB storm surge model

3) Users can apply financial terms on combined wind and surge losses in Touchstone and CATRADER®/Touchstone ReTM

4) CATRADER/Touchstone Re users can also get losses for the GB surge-only catalog

5) Exported CLFs will be for European ETC (even storm surge-only runs)

Bonus Features in Touchstone and CATRADER/Touchstone Re

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Summary

Added the storm surge sub-peril as part of AIR’s Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe

Expanded model coverage to include all of England and Wales

Updated with modern-day levee information to improve surge footprints

Enhanced damage functions using claims and peer-reviewed literature

Greater selection of primary and secondary characteristics to represent your risk

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Questions?