Post on 06-May-2015
The 2nd wave of global financial crisis: myth or reality?
Lebedeva Karina,Financial University under the Government of RF,
International Finance Faculty,Group 2-4
The USA
Forecasted budget deficit in 2011~ $ 1,5 trillion Government debt~14,3 trillion
Fall in stock market indexes all over the world
But US securities are still considered as the most reliable in the world, and $ remains the world currency
The USA is not interested in the default, because the funds of the majority of developed economies are pooled in the US-debt Budget deficit reduction program (4 trillion for 12 years-Obama (higher taxes); for 10 years-Republicans (lower spending))
China
ACHIEVEMENTS
Economic growth in 2008 – 9%, in 2009- 9,2%
2nd economy in the world after the USA
RISKS High risk of financial
bubbles, because of large amount of funds injected into economy during the crisis
The fall in demand for Chinese-exports may influence quotations, especially on metal exchanges.
5-year quality plan + reduction of growth to 7% = attempt to eliminate the risks of overheated economy
The European Union
Stabilization fund: high costs for economic
leaders such as:
Stagnation, reduction of tax revenue,
constant risks of default in:
Spain
Ireland
Portugal
Greece
Germany
France
Instability in foreign exchange market
Fluctuations of oil prices
Japan
Forecasted fall in GDP
Negative influence on the economies dependent from Japan (3d in the world). E.g. Such companies as General Motors, Ford, Renault-Nissan, Volkswagen etc. suffered from the stop of Japanese auto-production Fall of demand for oil, decrease in oil prices
Russia
Increasing oil prices , but no GDP growth. What will be if oil prices begin to fall?
Only 3% from world GDP – little influence on global decisions
According to the forecasts of Russian scientists based on the analysis of prices of oil, gas and gold, the 2nd wave of crisis will take place in July-August 2011
High expected inflation rates
The main financial risks for global community
Excessive liquidity as a result of anticrisis measures in developed countries (too many oil future contracts)
Inflation risks in the EU and in the USA (Treasury bonds purchase for $600 bn), in China (more than 5%)
Global demand re-balancing: reduction in consumer-demand within the developed countries; stimulation of consumer demand in the developing countries+ control of too high economic growth
Thanks for your attention!