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Thanatia and Thermodynamic Rarity : a way of Assessing the Mineral Resources Depletion

Antonio Valero and Alicia Valero

Oct 14, 2015 WRF, Davos

New materials for the “Green” Economy 2

Exponential consumption trend of minerals

Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing

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In summary…

World demand for all elements (especially the critical ones) is exponentially increasing.

Ore grades are abruptly declining and increasing the environmental impact of mining

Recycling is still very low for most elements. Even a 100% recycling is not enough to

satisfy demand.

4

Questions…

How is it possible that no global accounts for the degradation of the most critical and valuable minerals is carried out?

How can Thermodynamics help to understand the mineral depletion phenomenon?

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2. THERMODYNAMICS AS

THE ECONOMICS OF

MATTER

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A river, a glacier, a mine… have exergy, but with respect to what?

Some basic ideas of Thermodynamics 7

Exergy is a measure of distinction [kJ]

Exergy is a measure of an object’s rarity with respect to the surrounding commonness. The rarer (less concentrated) something is, the greater it stands out. Exergy accurately measures, in energy terms, the distinction of a piece of matter with respect to a given reference environment.

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Some basic ideas of Thermodynamics

So what is commoness for

minerals?

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THANATIA as a possible dead state of the Earth’s resources.

Suppose we imagine a possible state of the Earth

when all commercially exploitable resources have been consumed and dispersed.

From Greek “θάνατος” representing death (state).

How would be the composition of Thanatia’s crust?

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11 Thanatia’s model

THANATIA CRUST The upper continental crust can be approximated to the average

mineralogical composition of the current earth’s crust. Composed of 292 common minerals o All resources have been extracted and dispersed o All fossil fuels have been burned.

Source: Valero D., A.; Valero, A. & Gómez, J. B. The crepuscular planet. A model for the exhausted continental crust Energy, 2011, 36, 694 – 707; Valero, A.; Agudelo, A. & Valero D., A. The Crepuscular Planet. Part I: A model for the exhausted atmosphere Proceedings of ECOS 2009, 2009

Quarz 2,29E+01 Forsterite 6,96E-03 Helvine/ Helvite 8,05E-05Albite 1,35E+01 Hedenbergite 6,82E-03 Strontianite 7,88E-05Oligoclase 1,19E+01 Chalcopyrite 6,64E-03 Dispersed Tb 7,00E-05Orthoclase 1,18E+01 Phlogopite 6,62E-03 Perovskite 6,94E-05Andesine 5,46E+00 Witherite 5,99E-03 Tridymit 6,30E-05Paragonite 3,96E+00 Pentlandite 5,75E-03 Cryolite 4,95E-05Biotite 3,82E+00 Cordierite 5,57E-03 Sulphur 4,72E-05Hydromuscovite/ Illite 3,03E+00 Pyrolusite 4,90E-03 Orpiment 4,55E-05Augite 3,00E+00 Fayalite 4,77E-03 Brookite 4,21E-05Hornblende (Fe) 2,63E+00 Anatase 4,46E-03 Eudialyte 4,04E-05Labradorite 2,50E+00 Francolite 4,35E-03 Carnallite 4,03E-05Nontronite 1,93E+00 Tourmaline 4,30E-03 Xenotime 3,70E-05Opal 1,24E+00 Orthite-Ce / Allanite 4,05E-03 Dawsonite 3,62E-05Ripidolite 1,20E+00 Lepidolite 3,99E-03 Wolframite 3,21E-05Almandine 1,04E+00 Gedrite 3,23E-03 Dispersed Lu 3,10E-05Muscovite 1,01E+00 Beryl 3,22E-03 Dispersed Tm 3,00E-05Sillimanite 9,97E-01 Pyrophyllite 3,22E-03 Stibnite 2,75E-05Epidote 9,06E-01 Rhodonite 3,04E-03 Copper 2,48E-05Kaolinite 8,36E-01 Magnesite 3,02E-03 Cerussite 2,21E-05Calcite 8,00E-01 Chloritoid 3,00E-03 Blomstrandite/ Betafite 2,05E-05Magnetite 7,95E-01 Ilmenorutile 2,96E-03 Sodalite 1,98E-05Riebeckite 5,74E-01 Ulexite 2,92E-03 Britholite 1,71E-05Beidellite 5,10E-01 Diadochic Ce 2,83E-03 Ferrotantalite 1,58E-05Ilmenite 4,71E-01 Jacobsite 2,72E-03 Ramsayite/ Lorenzenite 1,24E-05Titanite 4,46E-01 Clementite 2,64E-03 Anglesite 1,16E-05Clinochlore 4,37E-01 Kernite 2,61E-03 Greenockite 1,16E-05Sepiolite 3,48E-01 Bastnasite 2,54E-03 Chondrodite 1,12E-05Aegirine 3,04E-01 Colemanite 2,46E-03 Axinite -Fe 1,10E-05

Name Abundance, mass %Name Abundance,

mass % Name Abundance, mass %

Exergy

Zero Exergy

Technosphere

Current Earth with mineral deposits

Thanatia

Earth’s evolution

The exergy of mineral resources

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Thanatia, would constitute the starting point for assessing the loss of mineral endowment on Earth!

Evolution of materials to Thanatia 13

NATURE/CRADLE

Resources Life cycle of a product

Services or products Exergy

Abatement processes

Emissions

Residues

THANATIA/ GRAVE

Solar energy

Wastes Effluents Emissions

Exergy

Replacement processes

Exergy

CRADLE TO GRAVE Real Exergy Cost: Embodied exergy/TEC cost

GRAVE TO CRADLE Hidden cost: Exergy replacement cost

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How much would it cost to produce a commodity from Thanatia?

Exergy values are far removed from social perception of value.

The real quantity of energy required to extract and process a given mineral is much greater than the minimum thermodynamic exergy: Exergy cost or embodied exergy

The difference between the Exergy Cost and Exergy is the Exergy loss a measure of our TechnologicaI IGNORANCE !

Exergy & exergy cost of mineral resources

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Actual exergy => Exergy cost (kJ)

Minimum thermodynamic exergy (kJ)

Applications of the Second

Law for mineral resources

assessment

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Exergy

Zero Exergy

Technosphere

Current Earth with mineral deposits

Thanatia

Earth’s evolution

The exergy of mineral resources

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Thanatia, would constitute the starting point for assessing the loss of mineral endowment on Earth!

Rarity

Thermod. Rarity

Ore grade xB xM xC

Natural Bonus

Mine to market cost

xL

Exergy (kJ) Thanatia

Landfills (Urban mining)

Mines (Commercial extraction)

Post-beneficiation (Ore Concentration)

x=1 x=0

Unattainable mining

Thermodynamic Rarity 18

2 costs: real (embodied exergy) and hidden/avoided costs (exergy replacement cost) o Embodied exergy accounts for the difficulty of mining and

refining a mineral. o Avoided costs: “natural bonus” for having minerals

concentrated in mines and not dispersed => measure of destruction of the mineral patrimony.

Thermodynamic Rarity

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Rarity does only depends on

i. The concentration of the commodity in the market ii. The concentration of the mineral in the crust iii. The available technology to extract it.

o It can be calculated not only for commodities but any

device containing metals/minerals!

Thermodynamic Rarity

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Thermodynamic rarity of some main ores of elements. In construction

H He

Li Be B C N O F Ne 558 260

Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar 47 638 1 1

K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr 1,227 3 23 1,191 5 16 18 10881 776 139 26 754,828 24,247 409

Rb Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Xe 1,357 1,393 1,043 8,652 6,162 363,917 442 445 2,825,065

Cs Ba La Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Rn 39 336 485,910 7,642 103,087 691,420 28,455 37 493

Fr Ra Ac Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu Uub Uut Uuq Uup Uuh Uus Uuo

Ce Pr Nd Pm Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu 620 873 670 4,085

Th Pa U Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr 1,090

>10,000 GJ/t 10,000-1,000 GJ/t 1,000-100 GJ/t <100 GJ/t

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A new dimension in the criticality assessment of minerals

Economic importance

Supply risk

Thermodynamic rarity

Universal and objective (kJ)

Country dependent and

variable

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How much is the yearly loss of the mineral exergy endowment of the Earth?

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Mining and concentration

1% Smelting and

refining 6%

Coal 26%

Oil 25% Natural gas

18%

Non-fuel minerals

33%

DE LA TUMBA A LA CUNA A 2nd Law vision of global mineral resources: “exergy loss basket”

Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing

CO2 and H20=> Thanatia

Dispersion=> Thanatia

1) Our planet is headed towards mineral depletion (best ore grades have been extracted and are dispersed in the biosphere)

This is not fatalism but science. It is Thermodynamics

Final reflections 24

oCan be used for assessing the rate of Loss of Mineral Endowment of the Planet or of Each Country

o In fact, it measures the Mineral Aging of the Planet, whose commercial death is represented by Thanatia!

Thermodynamic Rarity

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Final reflections

3) The Circular Economy is a beautiful myth, but the Second Law of Thermodynamics is unavoidable:

“In each material cycle

something is lost because one cannot afford complete and cheap recycling. We can only yearn for a Spiral Economy, with the largest number of turns, but in the end spirals get diluted into Thanatia”

We propose a fractal tree for

each chemical element.

Final reflections

Technosphere

Thanatia

Geosphere

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The ages of man Rare

Material intensity

Years 10000 BC 3300 BC 1300 BC 1500 AC 1900 1940 1950 2xxx (?)

Stone Age

Bronze Age

Iron Age

Coal Age

Oil Age

Nuclear Age

Stone Age

Periodic Table Age

This message was already given 45 years ago! 28

Now is time for Second Law Analysis 29

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Sustainability is a journey, Thanatia a destiny!

On youtube (Spanish): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6qi4bKRPe0 On youtube (English): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76eUJxPaqFU

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THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen and the 2nd Law

“The Entropy Law itself emerges as the most economic in nature of all natural laws... the economic process and the Entropy Law is only an aspect of a more general fact, namely, that this law is the basis of the economy of life at all levels. . ."

N. Georgescu-Roegen. The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (1971)

Interview by A. Valero with N. Georgescu-Roegen in 1991 http://habitat.aq.upm.es/boletin/n4/aaval.html

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Yet the 2nd Law is only used in a metaphorical way. Ideas are never converted into numbers!

Thermodynamics Laws vs. Economics

First Law:

Corolary: Money is not a suitable resource depletion indicator.

Second Law:

Money can be printed out of nothing, kilojoules cannot!

Activity can generate profit yet always destroys resources (irreversibility)

Corolary: In a planet with limited resources, infinite growth is not possible.

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0

325

650

975

1,300

1,625

1,950

2,275

2,600

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1840 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

Ore

Gra

de (

Ag)

Ore

Gra

des

(Cu,

Pb,

Zn,

Au,

Ni,

U, D

iam

onds

)

Copper (%Cu)

Gold (g/t)

Lead (%Pb)

Zinc (%Zn)

Uranium (kg/t U3O8)

Nickel (%Ni)

Diamonds (carats/t)

Silver (g/t)

(kg/t U3O8)

(Ag, 1884 - 3,506 g/t)

Ore grades are declining

Ore grade decline in Australia’s main commodities

Source: Mudd, G. The Ultimate Sustainability of Mining – Linking Key Mega-Trends with 21st Century Challenges Sustainable mining conference, 2010

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… Yet very little is being recycled

Source: Graedel et al. (2011) What Do We Know About Metal Recycling Rates? Journal of Industrial Ecology, 15, 355-366

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Agbogbloshie, Ghana

Recycling rates are increasing. However demand increases at an even higher rate

Recycling is not enough

The case of Aluminium 37

Source: Gerber (2007): Strategy towards the red list from a business perspective From availability to accessibility - insights into the results of an expert workshop on ``mineral raw material scarcity''

A 2% yearly increase in demand implies doubling extraction every 35 years=historic extraction