Post on 12-Jul-2015
Tax Liens in theAmerican Landscape
Comparative Metrics of Tax Lien Certificate Policy Outcomes
States & Localities as Laboratories
• Where do Tax Lien Policies Work Best?– For local residents?
– For investors?
– For tax lien delinquents?
• What is the Best Possible Model?– What can appeal to newcomers (especially Californians)?
– What can respond to and satisfy demands for reform?
The Task(s) at Hand
• Compare Bid Rates by Land Use Category
– Deal with Data Access Hurdles• Acquire Sale Lists and Results Lists• Acquire and Integrate Property Information
– Overcome the Apples and Oranges Problem (Big Data)• Harmonize Zoning and Property Codes• Recalculate Premiums into Effective Winning Bid Rates
Florida Maryland
Comparative Densities
Maryland Densities
Florida Densities
Maryland Harmonization
• Diverse Local Rates– 12%
• Cecil
– 18%• Ann Arundel• Howard• Baltimore City
– 20% • Prince George’s
𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 ∗ 𝐿𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 + 𝐵𝑖𝑑𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚
ROI presuming 1 year
Purchased at Auction, 2013
Charting Broad ComparisonsTotal Face Avg. Face
Avg. Rate
Charting Land Use Comparisons #1
Charting LandUse Comparisons #2
Total Face Avg. Face
Total Count Avg. Rate
Land Use & Average RateAvg. Rate
What’s the difference that makes a difference?
Charting Quintiles
Charting Average Rate by QuintileCommercial Industrial
Land Residential
Bidding Aggression
Residential Bid Rate by Quintile
Bidding Aggression
Tax Lien Policies Compared
• What kinds of outcomes are incentivized?
– Relative likelihood of delinquency.
– Relative participation of investor community.
– Relative forbearance to delinquents.
– Relative speed of lien redemption.
– Relative speed & quality of property rehabilitation.