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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018

TACITTeachingMaterials

By

JohnBessant(UniversityofExeter)TimJones(FutureAgenda)

Exeter,2018

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018

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ThesenotesaretoaccompanytheExecutiveBriefingonFuture-basedLearningwhichformspartoftheTACITprogramme.Theyaredesignedforteachersandcoachestousetohelpstructureaworkshopbasedontheapproach.Ourintentionisthattheybecomethebasisforanon-goingdevelopmentoflearningresourcesaroundthetopicandsofeedback,elaboration,configuration,addition,etc.wouldbewelcomed.Thedefaultassumptioninthedesignofthisworkshopisfora1-daysession(the‘IF-Lab’)withextensiveopportunityforinteractionandpracticeonthepartofparticipants.Inadditiontotheworkshopstructurethereareseveralhand-outsandotherlearningresources;ourintentionagainistobuildalibraryofthesetosupportdeliveryofvariousdifferentkindsofteaching/coachinginputbasedonthistechnique.

TableofContents

ModuleFuture-basedLearning–theIF-Lab(ImaginingthefutureLab) 3

TheIF-Lab–Imaginingthefuture.OverallRoadmapoftheworkshop 4

Resourcestosupplydelivery 5

Handout1:Thinkingabouttomorrow 5

Handout2:Scenarious 11

Handout3:Delphiapproach 12

Handout4:Roadmapping 13

Handout5:The‘Gamechanger’programmeatShell 15

Handout6:Workshopinstructions 16

Handout7:Furtheroptionalactivities 18

Acknowledgement

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018

Future-basedLearning–theIF-Lab(ImaginingthefutureLab)

Workshopsize:ideally10+participantsLocation:Flexiblelayout,chairsingroups,oracircleifpossible.Facilitators:1+1trainerContentThis module introduces the idea of exploring and working with futures. Throughpresentationanddiscussion,understandingisgainedofhowwecanbuildcoherentpicturesofthefuture,howwecananalyseandexplorethosefuturesandextractrobustinnovationprojects from them and how we can ‘backcast’, developing a roadmap for reaching thatdesiredfuturestate.Theworkshophasthreecomponents,eachofwhichinvolvesexplanationfollowedbygroupwork,presentationandreview.EducationalObjectivesAfter completing this module, participants will have completed the following learningoutcomes:Knowledge/understandingParticipantswill:

• Understandavarietyofapproaches towardssystematicexplorationandanalysisofpossiblefuturesasawayofframinginnovation/entrepreneurshipactivity

Abilities/skillsParticipantswill:

• Generatescenariosrelatedtotheirownorganisation’sfuturetrajectoryandidentifyarangeofpossibleinnovationoptionswithinthosefutures

• Analsyse selected options in detail and develop robust future cases as innovationopportunities

• Back-castfromthesefuturepossibilitiesanddeveloparoadmapforreachingtheemfromthepresentstate

• Usesomebasicpresentationskillstoimprovetheirimpactincommunicatingideas–pitchinginnovation.

CompetenciesParticipantswill:

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018

• Practice and rehearse the skills needed to

workwithfuturesasakeyinputtotheirorganziation’sinnovationsearchactivities

TheIF-Lab–ImaginingthefutureOverallroadmapoftheworkshop

1. Introductionandwarm-up2. Thinkingabouttomorrow

Break

3. Buildingscenarios–positive,negative,neutralBreak

4. Extractinginnovationopportunities

Break5. Roadmapping

6. Pitching,reviewandlearningcapture

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018

ResourcestosupportdeliveryMaterialsrequired:Type Quantity Purpose/locationPensNotepaper

1perparticipant3sheetsperattendee

Whiteboards/charts

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1 per group, standing nextto working area of eachgroup

Handouts(These can be distributed during the session or sent beforehand to allow participants toprepare)

1. Thinkingabouttomorrow(forallparticipants)2. Scenarios(forallparticipants)3. Delphimethods(forallparticipants)4. Roadmapping(forallparticipants)5. TheGamechangercase(forallparticipants)6. Workshopinstructions(forfacilitatorsonly)7. Furtheractivities(optional)

HandoutNo1:Thinkingabouttomorrow Executivebriefing:Future-basedlearning1.Thinkingabouttomorrow….Innovationis,bydefinition,allaboutthefuture.It’saboutwhatmightbe,whatcouldhappen,aboutproductsandserviceswhichshapeourlivesinsomefuturetime.Butit’salsounknown,uncertain,toalargeextentunpredictable.Sothechallengewefaceasinnovationmanagersandentrepreneursistofindwaysofimaginingthefuture,exploringthreatsandopportunitiesandusingthisinformationtoshapetheideaswecreate.

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018

Forecasting,futuregazing,isnotanewskillset.Backinbiblicaltimestherewereclearreferencestothepractice.Anditmatterstoday–arecentsurveyshowsthatfuture-prepared“vigilant”firmsenjoyabove-averageprofitabilityandmarketcapitalizationgrowth1.Someorganizations–forexampleShell–havebuiltastrongpositionthroughtheirabilitytoexplorethefutureandreturnfromthatjourneywithusefulinformationwhichshapedtheiractionsinthepresent.(Seethe‘Furtherresources’sectionformoreonthisandtheGamechangerprogrammewhichtheydevelopedoutoftheirexperience)The‘frontendofinnovation’isallaboutsearchbehaviourandforecasting/futuresmethodsprovideapowerfuladditiontothistoolkit.Inparticulartherearetwostrandstousingsuchtools–forecasting(theactoflookingforwardtoemergingthreatsandopportunities)andbackcasting(workingbackfromachosenanddesirablepositionwithinthosefuturestocreatearoadmapforhowtogettherefromtoday).Thechallengeinteachingandcoachinginnovationistodevelopskillsandcapabilitiesaroundsystematicallyusingfuturesapproaches.2.ThefuturestoolkitWecanbreakdownthefuturestoolkittothreestages:

• Forecasting–creatingpicturesofthefuture• Analysis–exploringtheimplicationsofsuchfuturesanddrawingoutpriorities–

wheredowewanttogettoasanorganization?• Backcasting–roadmappingourwaytoreachthisdestinationbeginningwithwhere

wearetodayIt’srelevantrightacrosstheinnovationspectrum,fromidentifyingthepotentialopportunityinastart-upthroughtoplottingthecourseofahundred-yearoldcorporationasittriestonavigateturbulentwaters.Possiblyinsertgraphic–funnelbasedaroundcreatepicturesoffuturethroughtochoosingwhichprioritytoworkonthroughtoimplementingthepathway.

1R.Rohrbecketal,‘Howleadingfirmsbuildasuperiorpositioninthemarketsofthefuture’,2018CorporateForesightandBenchmarkingReport,AarhusUniversity,Denmark.

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Project Duration: January 2016 - December 2018

Withineachoftheseareastherearehelpfultoolsandapproachestoenableustoworkwiththesethemes.Typicallytheseinclude:

(a) Exploringthefuturea. Extrapolatingtrendsb. Askingexpertsc. Scenarios

(b) Analysingthefuture

a. Identifyingthreatsandopportunitiesb. Prioritisingtheseandidentifyingactionareasc. Creatingcleartargets

(c) Roadmappingtowardsadesirablefuture

a. Backcasting,identifyingthestepsneededtoreachthisfromtoday’spositionb. Planning,creatingapathwaytowardsthisfuture

TheTCIchallengeistoprovideopportunitiestobuildandpractisetheseskills,firstinworkshoprehearsalandthenappliedtotheorganizationitselfinsystematicfashion.3. Exploringthefuture

(a) FollowingtrendsThesimplestapproachtoexploringthefutureistotakewherewearenowandtrytoidentifytrendsandfollowthemthrough.Organizationsalreadydomuchofthis,makingextensiveuseofshort-termforecaststodevelopproductsandservicesbasedonanticipatedgrowthinmarketdemand,technologicalperformanceorsomeothervariable.Butthesearetoolsfordealingwithnear-termfutures;thechallengecomeswhenweusetrendextrapolationtolookfurtherout,beyondhorizonsof5yearsormore.AgoodexampleisMoore’sLaw;thishasworkedwellasoneoftheshapingdevicesfortheITindustryanditsmultiplemarkets.OriginallyanobservationbyGordonMoore,oneofthefoundersofIntel,thissuggestedthatthepowerofcomputerchipsdoubles(asmeasuredbythenumberoftransistorsplacedonanintegratedcircuit)everytwoyears.Addtothisinformationontrendsaroundthecostofproducingthosechipswhichalsoseemtofollowapattern,halvingeveryfiveyearsorso.Andprettysoonyouhavesomeguidelineswhichhavehelpedwholeindustriesmakestrategicplans,investingtodayfortomorrow’sgrowthopportunities.IntelspendsbillionsonnewplantsandguidesitsstrategyinpartviaMoore’slawandwhatthatwouldmeanforthekindofdevicestheyshouldmake.Othersontheuser

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

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sideassumethatsuchpowerbecomesavailableandthinkaboutwhatmightbepossiblewithit–leadingtosmartphones,wearabledevicesandevermorepowerfulcomputingembeddedintheInternetofThings.Trendscanbemappedintermsoftheiroveralltrajectorybutit’salsousefultohavesomesenseoftherateofchange.Forexampleweknowthattheworld’spopulationisgrowing–buthowfast?Thecostofhealthcareisrisingbuthowfast?Thenumberofpeoplelivingincitiesisrising–butwhereandhowfast?Thepoweroftrendextrapolationisthatitfocusesquicklyonakeythreatoropportunity.Theirmainweaknessisthatitoftenfocusesonasingletrendorsmallsetoffactors-butthefutureiscomposedofmultipletrendsandtheirinteraction.Whatwe’rereallylookingforarecoherentnarrativeswhichweavetogethersomeofthesetrendsintomeaningfulstoriesinwhichwecanexplorethechallengesandopportunities.(Thinkingaboutthefutureis,aswe’vesaid,notnew–andcritiquesofforecastingarealsoanoldtheme.Duringthelastcenturytherewasconsiderablediscussionroundtherisingrisksofoverpopulation,environmentalpollution,energycostsandavailability,etc.Thedebatearoundwhatwerecalled‘Thelimitstogrowth’emergedinwhichforecastersarguedabouttherelativeimplicationsofthesetrendsandtheneedforpoliticalaction;wecanseereflectionsofthiskindofargumentinournewsmediatoday.Seethe‘Furtherresources’sectionforsomeexamplesofthesecritiques).

(b) AsktheexpertsAnyonecanstargaze,imaginefutures.Butithelpstohavesomepriorknowledgeaboutwhatislikely,whatmightbepossible.Sojudgmentsfromexpertsarevaluableinsharpeningforecastsandcreatingcoherentpictures.Delphimethodsarebasedonthisuseofexpertstohelpprovidepictures.(ThenamecomesfromthefamousOracleinGreekmythologywhowassupposedtobeabletoofferanswerstoquestionsaboutthefuture).Expertscanbeinvariousdomains–technical,political,sociological–theirskillsareinlookingforwardthroughalensofexpertise.AtypicalDelphistudyasksfortheiropiniononemergingfutures,thencompilesasharedpictureofthoseviews.Thisiscirculatedamongsttheexpertsforfurthercommentandelaboration,andsoon,graduallysharpeningandrefiningtheforecast.(AnexampleofaDelphiapproachwasamajorstudycommissionedintheUKin1985tolookatthefuturewithinformationtechnology25yearsahead.Itdrewonhundredsofexpertsandbuiltarichpicturewhichhelpedinformpolicy-making.Inthe‘Furtherresources’sectionyoucanreadanarticlepublishedin2015,whichlooksbackatthesuccess(or

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otherwise)oftheirpredictions)

(c) Creatingstoriesaboutthefuture–scenariosHumanbeingshaveevolvedtobeabletoprocessalotofinformationfastandtotryandmakesenseofit.Weinterprettheworldintermsofnarratives–storieswhichwetellourselvesandwhichweusetoguideouractions.AsweseeintheTACITworkonstorytelling(cross-link)wearehard-wiredforthisandwecanusethistoadvantageinanumberofsituations.Andoneobviousplaceisinimaginingthefuture.Creatingpicturesofthefutureinwhichwearegoingtolive–whatproductsandserviceswillweconsume?Howwillorfactoriesandofficeswork?Whatarethe‘usecases’inwhichnewtechnologiesmightbedeployedandfindmarkets?It’sessentiallyscience-fictionandhasalongpedigree.Whatwouldaworldlooklikewithextremelyhighlevelsofsurveillance?GeorgeOrwell’s‘1984’givesachillingexample,wovenintoastoryofhowthatmightbeexperiencedinpeople’slives.Geneticmanipulationandselectivebreeding?AldousHuxley’s‘Bravenewworld’givessomeclues.Mobilecommunicationsenabledbysatellites?StepforwardArthurC.Clarke,whohadtheoriginalideabackinthe1960sandwroteaboutitinoneofhismanynovels.Thepowerofsuchapproachesisthattheyweavetogethertrendsandtryandcreatepossiblefutureswhichwecanthenexplore.Wecancrawlinsidetheseworldsandthinkaboutwhattheywouldmeanforus–wherecouldacompanylikeoursplay,whatarethelikelynewbusinessesopportunities?Andwherearethethreatswhichweneedtowatchoutfor,howmighttheyaffectus?Scenariosarewidelyused–theyhelpunderstandpossibleinnovationsincontext.WhenacompanylikeBMWorDaimlerdevelopaconceptcaritisnotsimplyatechnologicalbox–itisastoryaboutthepeoplewhomightdrivethatcarandtheplaceitwillhaveintheirlives.SteveJobs’visionofthehomecomputerwasnotsimplyoneofdesigningtheboxbutofimagininghowthisdevicewouldfitintotheworldinwhichpeopleliveandwork.Shell,aswehavementioned,hasalonghistoryofworkingwithscenariosandits‘Gamechanger’programmeessentiallycommissionssciencefictionstoriesaboutthefutureformateamofwritersoutsidethecompany.Theythenusethesescenariosasplacestoexplore;theroleofGamechangersistofindopportunitieswithinsuchspaceforShelltodeployitscompetenciesinthefuture.(YoucanreadmoreaboutGamechangerinthe‘FurtherResources’section).Oneimportantfeatureofscenariosisthattheycanbeshared–thespacecanbeexploredbymultipleplayerslookingatajointfuture.Shellislookingatthefutureoflargesmart

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

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citiesbutexploringasanenergyprovideralongsideotherswhospecialiseinwatertreatment,communicationsutilities,transportationproviders,etc.Insimilarfashionthefutureofmobilityisnotjustofconcerntocarcompanies–ifthevehiclesbecomedriverlessthenwhatmightthespaceinsidebeusedfor.Anoffice?Anentertainmentcentre?Aschoolroom?Openingupthescenarioallowsotherstoexploreandtointeract,pavingthewayforpossiblecollaborativeinnovation.(4)AnalysingthefutureScenarioshelpprovidestorieswhichwecanexploretofindinnovationopportunities.Butweneedtobealittlemoresystematicifwearegoingtousethosetocreatevalue.Soinworkingwithfutureswealsoneedtodevelopskillsinprioritisingandanalysingthekeythreatsandopportunities.Typicallyorganizationsexploredimensionsliketheprobabilityofthescenarioemerging,thekeyforcesandactorsshapingit,thepotentialrisksandrewards,etc.Inotherwordstheydevelopanumberofbusinesscasesandthenlookcloselyatthemostattractive(orthreatening)ofthese.Thetoolsfordoingsoareessentiallythesameaswewoulduseindevelopinganewbusinesscaseforaninnovation.Systematicallyaskingquestionsaroundthecorevalueproposition,thekeyactors,thetargetmarket(s),thecostsandrevenueslikelytobeinvolved,etc.Andwecanusetoolslikestoryboarding,businessmodelcanvas,designthinking,etc.tocreatecoherentcasestopitchforfurtherexplorationtowardsthesefutures.IntheShellcase,forexample,theGamechangerprocessinvolveslookingatthreeversionsofscenarios–positive,negativeandneutralandthenteasingoutanumberofpossiblebusinesscaseswhicharethenpitchedinternallytofindsponsorsandchampionstohelpmovethemforwardaspartofShell’sinnovationstrategy.(5)BackcastingandroadmappingThefinalstageinusingfutures-basedapproachesistoworkbackwardsfromthedesirablefuturestatetowherewearetoday.This‘backcasting’istypicallydonebyusingaroad-mappingapproach,lookingsystematicallyatthestepsneededtomoveformtoday’spositiontooneinwhichtheorganizationcanachievethefuturestate–essentiallyaprojectplanforthefuture.Roadmappingisimportantbecauseithelpsidentifykeyresourceswhichhavetobefound–orcollaboratorstoprovidethem–andthetimingofsuchstages.Italsoallowsforlearningandexperimentalongthewayandthepotentialfordecisionpointstocontinueortoabandonthechosenapproach.

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HandoutNo2:Scenarios

ScenariodevelopmentScenariosareinternallyconsistentdescriptionsofalternativepossiblefutures,basedupondifferentassumptionsandinterpretationsofthedrivingforcesofchange.Inputsincludequantitativedataandanalysis,andqualitativeassumptionsandassessments,suchassocietal,technological,economical,environmentalandpoliticaldrivers.Scenariodevelopmentisnotstrictly-speakingprediction,asitassumesthatthefutureisuncertainandthatthepathofcurrentdevelopmentscanrangefromtheconventionaltotherevolutionary.Itisparticularlygoodatincorporatingpotentialcriticaleventswhichmightresultindivergentpathsorbranchesbeingpursued.Scenariodevelopmentcanbenormativeorexplorative.Thenormativeperspectivedefinesapreferredvisionofthefutureandoutlinesdifferentpathwaysfromthegoaltothepresent.Forexample,thisiscommonlyusedinenergyfuturesandsustainablefuturesscenarios.Theexplorativeapproachdefinesthedriversofchange,andcreatesscenariosfromthesewithoutexplicitgoalsoragendas.Forscenariostobeeffectivetheyneedtoinclusive,plausibleandcompelling(asopposedtobeingexclusive,implausibleorobvious),aswellasbeingchallengingtotheassumptionsofthestakeholders.Theyshouldmaketheassumptionsandinputsusedexplicit,andformthebasisofaprocessofdiscussion,debate,policy,strategyandultimatelyaction.Theoutputistypicallytwoorthreecontrastingscenarios,buttheprocessofdevelopmentanddiscussionofscenariosismuchmorevaluable.Scenariodevelopmentmayinvolvemanydifferentforecastingtechniques,includingcomputer-basedsimulation.Typically,itbeginswiththeidentificationofthecriticalindicators,whichmightincludeuseofbrainstormingandDelphitechniques.Next,thereasonsforthebehaviouroftheseindicatorsisexamined,perhapsusingregressiontechniques.Thefutureeventswhicharelikelytoaffecttheseindicatorsareidentified.Theseareusedtoconstructthebest,worstandmost-likelyfuturescenarios.Finally,thecompanyassessestheimpactofeachscenarioonitsbusiness.Thegoalistoplanfortheoutcomewiththegreatestimpact,orbetterstill,retainsufficientflexibilitytorespondtoseveraldifferentscenarios.Scenariodevelopmentisakeypartofthelong-termplanningprocessinthosesectorscharacterizedbyhighcapitalinvestment,longleadtimesandsignificantenvironmentaluncertainty,suchasenergy,aerospaceandtelecommunications.Manyorganizationsspendconsiderableresourcesonconstructingrichpicturesoffuturescenarios,engagingavarietyofexpertsandwriterstocreateplausiblevisionsoffuture

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

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possibilities.Some–suchasShell–usethemextensivelyinternallybutalsomakethemavailableforothers.ClickhereforanaudiointerviewwithHelenKingofBordBhia,theIrishnationalagencyforthefoodindustrywhichusesscenariostohelpexplorethreatsandopportunitiesforfirmswithinthatsector.Furtherreading:https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures

HandoutNo3:DelphiapproachDelphimethodsTheopinionofoutsideexperts,orDelphimethod,isusefulwherethereisagreatdealofuncertaintyorforlongtimehorizons.Delphiisusedwhereaconsensusofexpertopinionisrequiredonthetiming,probabilityandidentificationoffuturetechnologicalgoalsorconsumerneedsandthefactorslikelytoaffecttheirachievement.Itisbestusedinmakinglong-termforecastsandrevealinghownewtechnologiesandotherfactorscouldtriggerdiscontinuitiesintechnologicaltrajectories.Thechoiceofexpertsandtheidentificationoftheirlevelandareaofexpertiseareimportant;thestructuringofthequestionsisevenmoreimportant.Therelevantexpertsmayincludesuppliers,dealers,customers,consultantsandacademics.Expertsinnon-technologicalfieldscanbeincludedtoensurethattrendsineconomic,socialandenvironmentalfieldsarenotoverlooked.TheDelphimethodusuallybeginswithapostalorinternetsurveyofexpertopiniononwhatthefuturekeyissueswillbe,andthelikelihoodofthedevelopments.Theresponseisthenanalysed,andthesamesampleofexpertsresurveyedwithanew,morefocusedquestionnaire.Thisprocedureisrepeateduntilsomeconvergenceofopinionisobserved,orconverselyifnoconsensusisreached.Theexerciseusuallyconsistsofaniterativeprocessofquestionnaireandfeedbackamongtherespondents;thisprocessfinallyyieldsaDelphiforecastoftherangeofexperts’opinionsontheprobabilitiesofcertaineventsoccurringbyaquotedtime.Themethodseekstonullifythedisadvantageofface-to-facemeetingsatwhichtherecouldbedeferencetoauthorityorreputation,areluctancetoadmiterror,adesiretoconformor

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Project Number: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA

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differencesinpersuasiveability.Allofthesecouldleadtoaninaccurateconsensusofopinion.Thequalityoftheforecastishighlydependentontheexpertiseandcalibreoftheexperts;howtheexpertsareselectedandhowmanyshouldbeconsultedareimportantquestionstobeanswered.Ifinternationalexpertsareused,theexercisecantakeaconsiderablelengthoftime,orthenumberofiterationsmayhavetobecurtailed.Althoughseekingaconsensusmaybeimportant,adequateattentionshouldbepaidtoviewsthatdifferradically‘fromthenorm’astheremaybeimportantunderlyingreasonstojustifysuchmaverickviews.Withsufficientdesign,understandingandresources,mostoftheshortcomingsoftheDelphitechniquecanbeovercomeanditisapopulartechnique,particularlyfornationalforesightprogrammes.

HandoutNo4:RoadmappingRoadmappingisafuturestoolforinnovationwhichlooksaheadtosomekindoffuturestateandthentracksbackthroughthestagesneededtogettothatstate.Inotherwordsitmakesa‘roadmap’ofwhathastobedonetogetthere.(Anotherlabelsometimesusedis‘backcasting’ratherthanforecasting).AtypicalexampleiswhatiscalledTechnologyRoadmapping.Thismightbesuedtoidentifythetechnologiesneededandtheresourcesnecessarytousethosetechnologiesinordertocreateanddeliversomeproductorserviceinthefuture.Thestagesmightlooklikethis:

1 Identifyfutureproductsorserviceswhichmightbeofvalueinthefutureenvironment–say5-10yearsoutfromtoday.

2 Whattechnologieswouldbeinvolvedinthatproductorservice?3 Whatstepsdoweneedtostarttakingtoacquirethetechnologicalcompetence

tousethosetechnologiesinthefuture?Whichskills?InvestmentsinnewR&D?Acquisitionofkeyresourcesorequipment?Etc.

4 Fromtodaywhatarethestepstowardsbuildingthosetechnologicalcompetencies?

Thefigurebelowshowsanexampleofasimpleroadmap

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Inpracticaltermstherearemanydifferentwaysoflayingoutaroadmapbutthekeyelementswouldinvolveatimelineandsomeareastoconsider.Forexample:Year What’shappening Howdidwegetthere?

2025 Newproductfor

intelligenthomeautomation,controllingallyourhouseholddevices

2024 Prototypetestingwithkeymarketsandfinaldevelopment

Applyingtechnologiesinademonstrationproduct

2023 Individualcontrollersdevelopedandtestedandintegrationintoademonstrationproduct

Applyingthetechnologiesinavarietyofdifferentcontrollers–fortemperature,time,airquality,etc.

2022 Movingthetechnologiestoapplication

Masteringthecoretechnologies–havingskillsandequipmentinhouseandreadytodevelopproducts

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2021 EstablishanewR&Dareaandlaboratoryteam

Recruitkeystaffandprocurekeyequipmentandresources

2020 Identifyproductspecificationandthetechnologiesneededtoproduceit

Researchonpotentialmarketsandproductsfortheyear2025aroundintelligentenergyefficienthomeautomation

2019 Strategicdecisiontodiversifyintonewproductareasaroundenergyefficiency

Forecastingtoolstolookatthefuturein2025andmarketopportunitieswithintheenvironmentofthattime

2018 Roadmapsoftenfocusonkeystagesaroundtechnologyintegrationandidentifyproductperformancefeaturesneededandtechnologiestoenablethem–forexamplereliabilityandcost.Theremaybecompetingtechnologieswhichcandeliverthesameattributessosomethingabouttechnologyexplorationandselectionisoftenafeature.Moreinformationaboutroadmappingcanbefoundathttp://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/uploads/Resources/Briefings/v2n1_ifm_briefing.pdf

HandoutNo5:The‘Gamechanger’programmeatShell

LikemanylargeorganizationsShellhasexperimentedwithavarietyofapproachestocorporateventuring,tryingtodiversifythebusinessandanticipateemergingdevelopmentsintechnologyandmarkets.OneofthemostsuccessfulofthesehasbentheGamechangerprogrammeandtheselinksprovidesomemoredetail.Historyoftheprogramme:http://www.strategos.com/client/shell-gamechanger/Currentmodelhttp://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/innovation/innovate-with-shell/shell-gamechanger.htmlAshortvideointroductiontotheprocess

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCJ5CxFozkwAvideoexampleofateaminactionhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niv82wW3khs

HandoutNo6:WorkshopinstructionsTheIF-Lab–ImaginingthefutureWorkshopinstructions:Session1:ThinkingabouttomorrowTiming:30-40minutesSplitparticipantsintosmallgroupsandgetthemtospend10-15minutesimaginingtheirorganization8yearsfromnow.Thinkabouttheproductsandservicestheyareoffering,themarketstheyareserving,theinternaltechnologiesandprocessestheyareusing.Tryandthinkbeyondtoday’sstoryandexploreinterestingandchallengingfeaturesofthefuture–wherearethethreatsandopportunities?Summariseandfeedbackthesepicturesinashortpresentation.(N.B.encouragethemtobecreativeandcompellinginthesestoriesofthefuture–seetheTACITresourcesonStorytellingforwaysofdoingthis).Variationsonthistheme:

1. Getthemtoprepareanewsfeatureoffiveminutesdurationwhichdescribestheircompanyin8year’stime–whatit’sdoing,thechallengesitfaces,theopportunitiesithasdiscovered,etc.

2. Getthemtopresentthesadstoryofhowtheircompanyfailedtosurviveandwhatfeaturesledtoitsdownfall

3. As2butinsteadtheysurvivedamajorchallengebecausetheydid….?4. Timemachine–theyhavejustemergedformatimemachinewithmessagesfrom8

yearsintothefuture.Whatarethekeypoints,thelessonsthecompanyneedstolearn?

Thepurposeofthisactivityistogetthegroupsintoamodewhichexplorespossiblefutures,albeitinasomewhatunstructuredfashion.

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Session2:SystematicexplorationoffuturepossibilitiesTiming:45-60minutesIfpossiblegetthemtoworkonpreparationof8yearpicturesofthefuturebasedonusingthetoolsandresources(especially‘Myfutureagenda’)availableontheFutureAgendawebsite.https://www.futureagenda.org/Ifthisisnotpossiblethentryandgetthemtowatch/explorethesefuturepicturesduringtheworkshopsessionandthenprovideshortfeedbackonthekeyinsightstheywouldtakeformtheirreview.Whatdotheyseeasthebiggestareasofthreat?Andofopportunity?BreakSession3:BuildingscenariosTimingUsingtheinformationexploredinsession2drawout3mini-stories–scenarios–fortheirorganization8yearsfromnow.Onewillbepositive,successful,richinopportunity.Onewillbenegative,fullofthreatsandwithapooroutlook.Andonewillbeaneutralpictureinwhichthereareboththreatsandopportunities.Exploreandpresentthesetotherestoftheclass,highlightingthreeemergingopportunities(inorderofpriority)whichmightrepresentinnovationpossibilitiesinthis8yearfutureBreakSession4:ExtractinginnovationopportunitiesTiming:90minutes

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Takethemostpromisingoftheseideasandelaborateit,buildingabusinesscasearoundit.(Usetheinnovator’sstoryboardortheBusinessModelCanvasorothertoolstohelpwiththis).Developtheideaandchallenge/explorehowitcouldbemadereal.Whatarethechallengesindoingsoandwhatwouldyouneedtodotobringthisfutureabout?BreakSession5:RoadmappingTiming:45minutes

Usingtheroadmappinghand-outdevelopatime-basedactionplan–aroadmap–whichstartsformtodayandidentifiesthestepsneededtotaketheorganizationforwardtothepositioninwhichitcanexploittheopportunityidentified.Session6:PitchingandreviewTiming:45minutesPresenttheideasandroadmaps(maximum5minutespergroup)andbrieflydiscuss/exploreviaQ&AMovethediscussiontoareviewoftheprocessofusingfuturestohelpidentifyandexploreemergingopportunities.

Handout7:FurtheroptionalactivitiesThesecanbefoundhereAcknowledgement

Future-based Learning is a part of EU Erasmus+ Knowledge Alliance TACIT project

EAC/A04/2014, application: 562459-EPP-1-2015-1-UK-EPPKA2-KA.This project has

been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects

the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for

any use which may be made of the information contained therein.