Post on 27-Mar-2018
SYSTEM LOAD FORECAST OVERVIEW
City Light Review Panel Meeting
January 5, 2016
| 2
AGENDA
•Why Forecast Load?
• Forecast Preparation & Assumptions
• 2015 Load Forecast
• Load Forecast Trends
•What About the Future?
| 3
WHY FORECAST LOAD?
• Portfolio Management
oLong term Resource & Conservation Acquisition
oContractual Requirements - BPA obligation
• Rate Setting / Finance
oRetail Projections / Revenue Requirements
• Reliability / Infrastructure
oDistribution System Design & Adequacy
oWECC Planning
• Regulatory Reporting
| 4
TYPES OF LOAD FORECASTS
• Energy Consumption
oResource Planning / Energy Conservation
oRevenue Projection
oRegulatory Reporting
• Peak Usage
oReliability
oResource Planning / Demand Conservation
oRevenue Projection
oRegulatory Reporting
| 5
TYPES OF LOAD FORECASTS
• Geographic Usage
oTargeted Conservation
oDistribution Planning / Reliability
| 6
ASSUMPTIONS OVERVIEW
• Economic outlook includes inputs on U.S. growth
in GDP, industrial production, employment,
income, CPI, housing starts & population
• Forecast based on “normal weather”
• Load forecast assumes historic achieved
conservation continues into the future
• Forecast of tunnel boring machine not included
| 7
LOAD FORECAST MODEL STRUCTURE
City Light’s Service Territory
Load Forecast
City Light’s Service Territory
Economy
King County Economy
Boeing & MicrosoftU.S. Economy
| 8
1,000
1,020
1,040
1,060
1,080
1,100
1,120
1,140
1,160
1,180
1,200
Aug
2000
Aug
2001
Aug
2002
Aug
2003
Aug
2004
Aug
2005
Aug
2006
Aug
2007
Aug
2008
Aug
2009
Aug
2010
Aug
2011
Aug
2012
Aug
2013
Aug
2014
Aug
2015
Syst
em
Lo
ad
in
aM
W
dot.com recession
&
>30% real rate increase
record
warmth
Great
RecessionExpansion housing
boom
Current 12-Month Load
≈2.8% LESS THAN
15 Years Ago
CITY LIGHT LOAD HISTORY – ROLLING 12 MONTH
| 9
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
120001
99
9
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
Gig
aw
att
-Ho
urs
Total Retail Commercial Residential Industrial
LOAD HISTORY & FORECAST BY CUSTOMER CLASS
Forecasted 20-year Average Growth Rates
Total Retail: 0.4% Commercial: 0.6%
Residential: -0.1% Industrial: 0.5%
| 10
“NEW NORMAL” OF ECONOMIC GROWTH?
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
An
nu
al
Gro
wth
Rate
Real GDP Average Real GDP (Post-War)
| 11
LOCAL LABOR MARKETS
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%1
99
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
Em
plo
ym
en
t G
row
th /
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
Seattle Employment Growth King County Unemployment Rate
| 12
LOAD, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSEHOLDS
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Em
plo
ym
en
t &
Ho
use
ho
lds
(00
0's
)
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
Weather-Adjusted System Load (aMW) Wage & Salary Employment Households
| 13
ENERGY EFFICIENCY, CODES, & FUEL SWITCHING.... RESIDENTIAL MWH PER HOUSEHOLD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
MW
h p
er
Ho
use
ho
ld
| 14
2015 SUMMARY
• Economic growth expected to continue, yet does
so below historical trend
• Local labor markets expected to moderate after
recovery from recent downturn
• Rapid growth in residential construction not
expected to be sustainable in long-term
• Load demand growth expected to slow relative to
historical trend due to numerous factors
• 20-year average annual growth rate ≈ 0.4%
| 15
COMPARISON OF RECENT LOAD FORECASTS
1,100
1,110
1,120
1,130
1,140
1,150
1,160
1,170
1,180
1,190
1,200
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast
| 16
ECONOMIC GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE U.S.FOMC REAL GDP FORECAST
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Long Run
Q4
/Q4
%
ch
an
ge
Actual June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014
| 17
ELECTRIC VEHICLESENERGY AND CAPACITY
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Cap
aci
ty M
W, En
erg
y M
Wa
Base Case
Capacity Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Cap
aci
ty M
W, En
erg
y M
Wa
High Adoption Case
Capacity Energy
| 18
DISTRIBUTED ROOFTOP SOLAR INSTALLATIONSCUMULATIVE TOTAL SYSTEM CAPACITY AND ENERGY
• Installations total
approximately 0.08% of
retail load
• Residential and
community solar
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
CA
PA
CIT
Y M
W. EN
ER
GY
-M
Wa
ROOFTOP SOLAR- HIGHEST CASE
ROOFTOP SOLAR- NO INCENTIVES
ENERGY -HIGHEST CASE
ENERGY -NO INCENTIVES
| 19
I-502 COMPLIANT CANNABIS PRODUCERSAVERAGE MONTHLY LOAD
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Average Monthly Load (MW)
- Estimated 0.84MW from seventeen I-502 compliant cannabis producers in Seattle.
- Due to the infancy of this customer base, current data are very rough estimates.
| 20
WHERE IS LOAD GOING IN THE FUTURE?
• City Light’s customers are changing the way they
use electricity
▼ Customers have embraced conservation with large
long lasting effects
▼ Distributed generation is reducing load the utility is
paid for (not consumption)
▲ Plug loads are increasing significantly
▲ Electric vehicles and battery storage will increase
consumption
| 21
WHAT’S NEXT?
• A bottom up investigation will look at issues
affecting load including:
oBuilding code & appliance standards
oOver-achievement of energy conservation
oReduced usage due to real rate increases
oAppliance loss to natural gas fuel
oWhile small so far effects of DG Solar, EV’s, cannabis
production, etc. need study
| 22
WHAT’S NEXT?
• Customer loads are changing – We need to
understand why
• This is a regional problem and we are working
with regional players to understand the causes
• Last end-use load study occurred before:
oPersonal computers were popular
oCable and satellite set top boxes were in common
use
oMost common plug loads were not yet invented
OUR VISIONTo set the standard—to deliver the best customerservice experience of any utility in the nation.
OUR MISSIONSeattle City Light is dedicated to exceeding our customers’expectations in producing and delivering environmentallyresponsible, safe, low-cost and reliable power.
OUR VALUESExcellence, Accountability, Trust and Stewardship.