Sustaining National Meteorological Services

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector, National Weather Service

Riverdale, MDJune 18, 2013

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Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on NWP

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMNMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMMB

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern

Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

Sea Nettle

Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

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Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems

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• NOMADS – NOAA’s National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System real-time and retrospective, format-independent access to climate and

weather model data • A Unified Access Framework approach that engages data providers and users and

has a high probability of demonstrable successes

• Digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models

• Readily provides access to domestic and international users of NWS operational models on a “come and get it” basis.

Distributing NWS Operational Model Data: NOMADS Capabilities

• Increasing model resolution will require larger NOMADS capabilities

• Increasing number of users accessing model output from around the world will require more rapid response capabilities

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Major Challenges to NOMADS

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• Run NWS Global Forecast Systems at higher resolution out to 10 days

• High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

3 kilometer resolution

Runs every hour

• Ensembles: Higher Resolutions

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (going from 55km to 21 km)

Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) (going from 16 km to 12 km)

• Hurricane Models (to be run at 3km)

• Accelerate Storm Surge Modeling for NY, NJ, and New England

An Example of the Model Resolution Increase