Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids Through Dams and Reservoirs

of the Lower Snake and Columbia Rivers (Project

199302900)

CBFWAMarch 28-29, 2006steven.g.smith@noaa.gov

Objectives• Provide estimates of survival

for juvenile salmonids migrating through the Snake and Columbia Rivers

Objectives• Provide estimates of survival

for juvenile salmonids migrating through the Snake and Columbia Rivers

• Operate the PIT tag trawl in the Columbia River estuary

Objectives• Provide estimates of survival for

juvenile salmonids migrating through the Snake and Columbia Rivers

• Operate the PIT tag trawl in the Columbia River estuary

• Evaluate adult returns of PIT-tagged fish

Objectives• Provide estimates of survival for

juvenile salmonids migrating through the Snake and Columbia Rivers

• Operate the PIT tag trawl in the Columbia River estuary

• Evaluate adult returns of PIT-tagged fish

Bonnevill

e

The D

alle

s

John D

ay

Hells Canyon

OxbowBrownlee

Priest Rapids

Wanapum

Rock Island

Rocky Reach

Wells

Chief Joseph

Grand Coulee

McN

ary

Ice H

arb

or

Litt

le G

oose

Low

er

Gra

nit

e

Low

er

Monum

enta

l

Estuaryrecoveries

Juvenile detectors

Hatchery stream typeChinook (1993-2005)

0 200 400 600 800

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00KooskiaImnaha R. weir

Rapid RiverMcCallPahsimeroiSawtooth

Dworshak

R2=0.951, p=0.0002

Distance to Lower Granite Dam(km)

Surv

ival

Rele

ase

to L

GR

Stream type ChinookAll Snake River Basinhatcheries combined

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

X = 62%

55%Sur

viva

lRel

ease

to

LGR

Lower Granite tagging(each year)

• About 20,000 hatchery steelhead• Up to 10,000 wild steelhead• Up to 10,000 wild yearling Chinook• Combined with fish tagged above LGR

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Est

imat

ed s

urvi

val

Stream type Chinook Steelhead

Lower Granite to Little Goose

X = 90.3%X = 92.3%

91.9%94.0%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Est

imat

ed s

urvi

val

Stream type Chinook Steelhead

Lower Monumental to McNary

X = 85.0% X = 71.4%

90.9%(95.3)

72.2%(85.0)

Bonnevill

e

The D

alle

s

John D

ay

Hells Canyon

OxbowBrownlee

Priest Rapids

Wanapum

Rock Island

Rocky Reach

Wells

McN

ary

Ice H

arb

or

Litt

le G

oose

Low

er

Gra

nit

e

Low

er M

onum

enta

lCrescent Island

4 to 21% of all PIT-tagged steelhead leaving Lower Monumental Dam found on Crescent Island, 1998-2005

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Est

imat

ed s

urvi

val

Stream type Chinook Steelhead

Lower Granite to Bonneville

X = 48.6%??

X = 32.4%57.7%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Apr 9

Apr 16

Apr 23

Apr 30

May 7

May 14

May 21

May 28

1997-2004

2001

Median travel timeStream type ChinookLower Granite to Bonneville (461 km)

2005

Date at Lower Granite Dam

Tra

vel

tim

e (d

ays)

Snake River Trap to Bonneville Dam TailracePer-project extrapolation in some years

1965 1970 1975 1980

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 2005

Nodata

Chinook

Steelhead53.0%

22.5%

Outmigration year

Hyd

rosy

stem

sur

viva

l

Use of survival data

• Reach survival data used to evaluate structural and operational changes in the hydropower system and to determine where additional improvements are needed

Use of survival data

• Reach survival data used to evaluate structural and operational changes in the hydropower system and to determine where additional improvements are needed

• Survival estimates used to determine whether BiOp hydropower performance standards are met each year

Objectives• Provide estimates of survival for

juvenile salmonids migrating through the Snake and Columbia Rivers

• Operate the PIT tag trawl in the Columbia River estuary

• Evaluate adult returns of PIT-tagged fish

Survival (SE) from Tailrace of McNary Dam to Bonneville DamYearling chinook salmon

020406080

100

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Migration year

Su

rviv

al (

%)

Snake River Mid-Columbia

Yearling Chinook SalmonSurvival McNary to Bonneville

Detection rates trawl at Jones BeachYearling chinook salmon, 2003

5,184 detections

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

9 Apr 23 Apr 7 May 21 May 4 Jun 18 Jun

Release date from barge or detection at Bonneville Dam

Det

ecti

on r

ate

traw

l (%

)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Dai

ly p

assa

ge (

n)

Transport passage In-river passage Transport data

Transport regression In-river data In-river regression

Use of trawl data

• Used to determine smolt arrival timing to the estuary

Use of trawl data

• Used to determine smolt arrival timing to the estuary

• Used to compare performance of different groups (i.e., transport vs inriver)

Use of trawl data

• Used to determine smolt arrival timing to the estuary

• Used to compare performance of different groups (i.e., transport vs inriver)

• Used as final PIT tag recapture site, necessary for survival estimation to the tailrace of Bonneville Dam

Objectives• Provide estimates of survival for

juvenile salmonids migrating through the Snake and Columbia Rivers

• Operate the PIT tag trawl in the Columbia River estuary

• Evaluate adult returns of PIT-tagged fish

Stream type Chinook

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20050.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

In-river survival

Hyd

ropow

er sy

stem

surv

ival

SAR (%

)

Stream type Chinook

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20050.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

*

*

* Incomplete adult returns

In-river survial

SAR

*

Hyd

ropow

er sy

stem

surv

ival

SAR (%

)

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

R2 = 0.306P = 0.097

Stream type Chinook

Hydropower system survival

SAR (%

)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Survival

Hatchery Chinook Salmon 1998

2 Apr 16 Apr 30 Apr 14 May 28 May

Date leaving Lower Granite Dam

Per

cen

t S

urv

ival

(LG

R-B

ON

) SA

R (%

)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

1

2

3

Survival

SART

Hatchery Chinook Salmon 1998

2 Apr 16 Apr 30 Apr 14 May 28 May

Date leaving Lower Granite Dam

Per

cen

t S

urv

ival

(LG

R-B

ON

) SA

R (%

)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

1

2

3

Survival

SARM SART

Hatchery Chinook Salmon 1998

2 Apr 16 Apr 30 Apr 14 May 28 May

Date leaving Lower Granite Dam

Per

cen

t S

urv

ival

(LG

R-B

ON

) SA

R (%

)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

1

2

3

Survival

SARM SART

Hatchery Chinook Salmon 1998

2 Apr 16 Apr 30 Apr 14 May 28 May

"D"

Date leaving Lower Granite Dam

Per

cen

t S

urv

ival

(LG

R-B

ON

) SA

R (%

)

Use of SAR data

• To evaluate migration strategies (multiple bypass, transport vs spill, etc.)

Use of SAR data

• To evaluate migration strategies (multiple bypass, transport vs spill, etc.)

• Hydropower system mortality’s role in life cycle mortality

Major findings

Major findings

• Stream type Chinook survival has averaged 62% from hatchery release to the first dam

Major findings

• Stream type Chinook survival has averaged 62% from hatchery release to the first dam

• Reach survival has averaged 90% per project for Chinook and 85% for steelhead

Major findings

• Stream type Chinook survival has averaged 62% from hatchery release to the first dam

• Reach survival has averaged 90% per project for Chinook and 85% for steelhead

• Hydropower system survival has averaged 46% for Chinook and 32% for steelhead

Major findings

• Stream type Chinook survival has averaged 62% from hatchery release to the first dam

• Reach survival has averaged 90% per project for Chinook and 85% for steelhead

• Hydropower system survival has averaged 46% for Chinook and 32% for steelhead

• Migrant survival only weakly related to SAR, ocean entry timing appears important

Publications

• 18 reports to BPA (available on BPA website)

• 11 peer-reviewed publications

Questions