Post on 13-Apr-2017
SURGERY
What’s the risk?
AAADon’t operate unless > 55 mm
UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mm
UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mm
UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mm
UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mm
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
0.1
0.2
0.3
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0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AAAOperate if > 46 mm?
UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mminitial monthly mortality 0.40%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
UK Small Aneurysm Trial (2016): 46 mminitial monthly mortality 0.20%
UK Small Aneurysm Trial (2016): 46 mminitial monthly mortality 0.20%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
AAAOperate if > 41 mm?
AAA size, mortality hazard & survival
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0.01
0.1
1
Aneurysm diameter (mm)
Mon
thly
mor
talit
y ha
zard
(%)
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0.01
0.1
1
Aneurysm diameter (mm)
Mon
thly
mor
talit
y ha
zard
(%)
AAA size, mortality hazard & survival
AAA size, mortality hazard & survival
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0.01
0.1
1
Aneurysm diameter (mm)
Mon
thly
mor
talit
y ha
zard
(%)
AAAOperate if > your MLE threshold?
SURGERY
What’s the risk?