Post on 24-Aug-2020
Supporting decision making through adaptive tools in a changing climate
The team
• Judy Lawrence VUW
• Daniel Collins NIWA Christchurch
• Rob Bell, Scott Stephens, Paula Blackett NIWA Hamilton
• Nick Cradock-Henry Landcare Research Lincoln
• Marjolijn Haasnoot Deltares the Netherlands (parallel project and peer review)
• Bob Frame Landcare Research Lincoln & Andy Reisinger NZAGRC (peer reviewers)
Rivers and floods
River flows simulated across New Zealand to 2100.
Annual series of informative flood statistics are extracted for use with communities and analysed for trends and signal emergence.
Sea-level rise—certainty and uncertainty
near certainty:0.2-0.3 m
IPCC “likely range”across RCPs
Polar ice sheetinstabilities (outsideIPCC analysis)
deep uncertainty
When is tipping point reached as SL rises?
Wave set-up
Storm surge
Sea level variability
High-end scenario
Interactions with parameters
Climate change scenario
Global SLR
2000 21002050 2150 2200
1stor
der i
ndex
0
1Contribution of each parameter to the variance of the outcome: coastal flooding
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Pathways development
Asks the following questions
Will the option meet the long term objective?Will it increase or decrease exposure to the changing risk?What combination of options will give the greatest flexibility?What are their side effects?What other measures will assist meeting the objectives? (e.g. warning signals and decision triggers, planning controls, information)
Dynamic adaptive policy pathways
What DAPP achieves
Considers lifetime of actions
Short-term investment decisions that don’t close off options
Explores different pathways and identifies robust and flexible ones so addresses pathdependency and lock-in
Defines use-by date of options so change of path can happen
Monitors triggers regularly to identify risks and opportunities to promote timely actions
Signals, triggers and thresholds
Source: Marjolijn Haasnoot, Deltares, 2016
Triggers
• Depend on risk-time profile for receptors (people, assets, natural systems)
• Uses local risk exposure to coastal processes, storms & flooding (hazard & risk assessments)
• Integral to DAPP process—pre-defined decision points based on physical or societal conditions
• Need to build in lead time back from threshold(planning, consenting, funding, implementation)
Why are signals and triggers needed?
To support the monitoring of adaptive plans so pathways can be changed ahead of flood and SLR inundation
To reflect changed climate and socio-economic conditions
Project purpose
To model signals and design triggers using scenarios for implementing adaptive plans by decision-makers, using the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning approach for managing changing flood and sea- level rise risk profiles.
The project tasks
• Pluvial flood signals • Sea level rise signals• Pluvial and sea-level rise decision triggers
templates• Test these in several locations with stakeholders for
credibility, salience and legitimacy using socio-economic scenarios
• Test with Deltares collaborators comparing with Delta plan monitoring framework under development
Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSP indicators
Source: Frame & Reisinger (2016)
Building on international collaborations
• Sea-level rise reaches Y • No. of damaging events
(time-bound or unbound)• Erosion reaches X metres
of houses• No. of transport link
disruptions• No. of exceedances of
stormwater capacity > X
• Reach a fiscal limit• Perceptions of risk change• LOS provision below a
critical limit• Social capacity to adapt
exceeded (many smaller events c.f. an extreme
• Critical facility threatened
R Be
ll, N
IWA
Possible triggers…….
Thank you