Supply and Demand is Not Sustainable

Dr. Susan Krumdieck Department of Mechanical Engineering

Dr. Andre Dantas Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Tony Burton Energy Systems Engineer Cape Foulwind

What is this about?

Overview:

• Past

KaikuoraThe Role of Engineering

Supply and DemandContinuous GrowthIncreasing Demand

• Present

• Future

Sustainable Growth?Kyoto?Switch to Renewables?

Service and AvailabilityContinuityEnergy Architecture

Manapouri

Demand

Supply (without tax)

Supply (with tax)

C O ST

$

PRODUCTION QUANTITY

S’

SP’

P

QQ’

SUPPLY DEMANDPricePastEconomics

PastEngineering

DevelopmentInnovation

Advancement

Mt. Cook

We also know from the past:The Supply and Demand Model

most closely represents the “bloom and collapse”

cycle of bacteria and other single-cell biota

Problems of Unlimited Growth:

Food Forests Fisheries

Water War Waste

Peak Oil

Global Climate Change

Population

Mass Extinction

Whanganui River

Modern Economics

• Supply and Demand

• Sustainable Growth

• Triple Bottom Line Accounting

• Green Image Marketing

• Incentives / Carbon Tax

• Price Signals for Switch to Alternatives

• Sustainable Development

Modern Energy EngineeringEnergy is no longer “too cheap to meter”

The Environment is no longer “a free dumping ground”

Energy Resources

SupplyCostDemandEnd Use

Environment CostsHealth Costs

Catlins

Motion Sensors for LightsBuild Bike Paths

Energy AuditingLoad Management Ripple Control

Deregulation Market Pricing

Fund Research on Fuel CellsUpgrade Power Networks

Subsidies for Wind FarmsResearch into BioFuels

Sustainable Economy Goals

Environmental ImpactsEnergy Effic

iency

Renewable Energy

Green ProductsSustainable Development

Appropria

te T

echnology

Monowai

Stone JetSubstitute Renewable Energy and Green Products

into the fossil fuel system,

and you end up with…

Nelson

Moeraki

Farewell Spit

Lake Matheson

What will happen is what has always happened

Future: Engineering Change

• Correctly Pose the Problem

• Theory

• Method

• Analysis

• Engineering

Franz Joseph

Problem Definition

• Economics: Sustained Growth

• Ecology: Sustainable Environment

• Engineering: What ever you want

Fox Glacier

Engineering Problem Definition:

Stable energy and environmental resource architecture which provides well-being of civilization within the constraints of continuous resource availability

Able Tasman

TheoryRegional System Model

Reference Input Controls Physical

PlantActuators

FeedbackCatlins

Systems Model

West Coast

CONTINUITY MODEL

QUALITY

SERVICES

TECHNOLOGY

Appliances, Devices

Built Environment

IMPACTS Pollution, Erosion, Species, Natural Resource Extraction

Sustainable Primary Consumption and Impacts

ECONOMY INFRASTRUCTURE

Plant, Grid, Market Place, Roads, Buildings

Social, Economic and Energy Architecture

Culture Values Education Regulations

Interest Rates Inflation Income

Innovations Communication Systems Computation Capabilities System Control Strategies

SUPPLY

Energy, Resources

Model Structure

Environmental Structure

Actual Primary Consumption and Impacts

Availability

Performance

+

-

Well Being +

-

Individuals

Strategic Analysis Methodology

1. Define the system and performance metrics

2. Define objectives for well-being

3. Build socio-economic and cultural history

4. Develop a regional system model

5. Develop Performance-Objective design for reference energy architecture

6. Evaluate critical change factors

7. Develop scenarios for evolution Cape Foulwind

MethodMethod

“Achieve function and quality goals within the

constraints of resource availability”

Westport

Service and Availability Economy

ConsumersProducers

& Suppliers$

Free Market Relationship

Desired Services

Sustainable Availability

Sustainability Modelling

Information Flows

Natural ResourcesEnvironment Manapouri

Available Services

West Coast

Analysis and Modelling

• Real-Time Simulations

• Virtual Reality Experiential Interface

• Animation

Projects and New Technologies

Moeraki

• Modelling Environment

• Comparator computational systems for real-time analysis and communication to the community in a generic and relevant way

• Communication of sustainable built system possibilities to all sectors of society

• Built Environment

• Communications systems for access to availability information

• Feedback processing of environmental impact data, and real-time mitigation systems

Or we could keep trying to make Stone Jets to supply demandStone Jets to supply demand

H 2 Express

Biofuel Beauty

Wind and Solar Salvation

Nuclear Nonsense

Fusion Foolishness

H 2 Express

Thanks for your attention