Post on 28-May-2020
Super Market: Overview 2017
Forecasting 2018
ECR Meeting
Panagiotis Boretos
Deputy Managing Director
Commercial Director
28/02/2018
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Key Findings
KEY FINDINGS FOR THE TOTAL MARKET
• Counting from 2010, Q3 2017 is the first
period presenting positive GDP vs Q3 2016
• Inflation trend in 2017 reversed, being in
same level as 2012
• Positive sales trend for the market in 2017
vs 2016
• Positive trends in both volume and value in
2017
• Unemployment decreased, during the first
ten months of 2017
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Content
1 Greek Market Layout
2 Trends in value for Total Greece - Super/Hyper Markets
3 Trends in value for 6 Top Retailers - Super/Hyper Markets
4 Forecasting 2018
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Greek economy
RETAIL TURNOVER INDEX (w.o AUTOMOTIVE FUEL)
INFLATION RATE TRENDUNEMPLOYMENT
GDP
Source: ELSTAT Jan 2017 (latest available period/provisional data)
-4,9%
-7,1%-6,4%
-5,3%
-1,8%
-0,2%
0,0%
1,2%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
YTD SEP
17
-1,2%
-7,2%
-11,3%
-8,6%
-1,0%-0,8% -0,6%
1,0%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Jan - Oct
2017
14,8%
21,0%
26,9% 27,5% 26,5% 25,0% 23,5% 21,6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Oct
2017
4,7%
3,3%
1,5%
-0,9%-1,3%
-1,7%
-0,8%
1,0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Super & Hyper Markets | At least 2 cash registers
During 2017, Random Weight categories have shown excellent performance
FMCG & Random Weight Value Sales Trend
Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM - RW
RW 19.6% RW 19.7% RW 20.3%
FMCG 80.4%FMCG 80.3% FMCG 79.7%
3,0%
-5,6% 6,0%
-6,1%
-6,2% 2,3%
YEAR 2015 YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017
Random Weight FMCG .. .
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Positive trends in both Volume and Value terms in year 2017
FMCG
-6,2
2,3
-7,9
3,41,7
-1,1
YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017
Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM - RW, Year 2017
-5,6
6,0
-4,8
5,8
-0,8
0,3
YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017
Value Volume Price per Volume
Random Weight
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FMCG Value Sales Trend by month
Value sales trend is positive during the latest consecutive months
-5,9%-8,2% -9,3%
2,2%
-13,8%-14,4%
-2,8%
-6,3% -7,0% -6,6%-4,8%
4,1%
-9,3%
3,5%
-3,9%-2,5%
4,6%
1,9%4,1%
5,6% 6,0%1,6% 8,0%
7,4%
Ιαν-16 Μαρ-16 Μαϊ-16 Ιουλ-16 Σεπ-16 Νοε-16 Ιαν-17 Μαρ-17 Μαϊ-17 Ιουλ-17 Σεπ-17 Νοε-17
Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM - RW
-5,6%
-8,9%
-1,8%-3,9%
-12,5%
-5,3%-0,2%
-9,1% -10,0%-10,5%
-5,2%
3,9%
-6,7%
9,6%
-3,5%
5,6%
9,2%
1,7% 8,9%
11,9% 11,3%
7,2%
13,3%
8,1%
Ιαν-16 Μαρ-16 Μαϊ-16 Ιουλ-16 Σεπ-16 Νοε-16 Ιαν-17 Μαρ-17 Μαϊ-17 Ιουλ-17 Σεπ-17 Νοε-17
Random Weight Value Sales Trend by month
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Monthly Value Sales in Billions | 2017 vs 2015
The negative trend in sales, over the past two years is coming from FMCG,
Random Weight remain stable
Total Market, FMCG & Random Weight
Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM - RW
6,75 6,34 6,53
5,43 5,095,21
1,321,25
1,33
Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Total Super Hyper Market FMCG Random Weight
Total S/H Market -3.3% vs 2015
Total FMCG -4.1% vs 2015
Total Random Weight+0.1% vs 2015
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Decreasing categories in Value Contribution
Dairy, Household Cleaners & Personal Care and Beauty showing the most
significant losses in value contribution in Super-Hyper Markets
Source: IRI InfoScan & Random Weight, HM/SM
5,8% 5,8% 5,0% 8,2%3,0%
13,5%
5,6% 5,6%4,8%
8,0%
2,9%
13,1%
HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS PERSONAL CARE &
BEAUTY
PERSONAL HYGIENE COOKING AIDS OTHER HOUSEHOLD
PRODUCTS
DAIRY
YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017
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Winning categories in Value Contribution
Random Weight in total and Food and Beverage categories, showing the most
significant gain in value contribution in Super-Hyper Markets
Source: IRI InfoScan & Random Weight, HM/SM
8,5% 13,2% 7,8% 3,1% 4,7% 19,7%
8,7%
13,3%
8,0%
3,3%
4,7%
20,3%
NON ALC
BEVERAGES
PACKAGED FOOD SNACKS FROZEN FOOD ALCOHOL DRINKS RW
YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017
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Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM
Positive signs mainly in Food & Beverage Categories
Super/Hyper Markets I Value Sales Trend 2017 vs 2016
-1,3%
0,8%
-1,3%
-1,2%
5,9%
3,7%
5,8%
8,4%
3,2%
0,6%
0,6%
3,7%
6,0%
HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS
OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY
PERSONAL HYGIENE
NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
PACKAGED FOOD
SNACKS
FROZEN FOOD
ALCOHOL DRINKS
COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS
DAIRY
OTHER PRODUCTS
TOTAL RW
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FMCG Value Sales Trend Ι Top 5 Retailers
YR 2015YR 2016 YR 2017
Contribution of Top 5 retailers recovered the final quarter of 2017
Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM
-8.0% 2.0%
Value Contribution Q1 ‘16 Q2 ‘16 Q3 ‘16 Q4 ‘16 Q1 ‘17 Q2 ‘17 Q3 ‘17 Q4 ‘17
Top 5 Retailers 89.1% 87.8% 86.1% 87.7% 87.7% 87.7% 86.2% 88.1%
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Value Growth during latest 24 Months
Starting from April 2017, Top 5 Retailers have better performance
than Total Market
Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM
-5,9%
-8,2%-9,3%
2,2%
-13,8%-14,4%
-2,8%
-6,3%-7,0% -6,6%
-4,8%
4,1%
-9,3%
3,5%
-3,9%-2,5%
4,6%
1,9%
4,1%
5,6%
6,0%
1,6%
8,0%7,4%
-6,4%
-8,9%
-11,0%
-0,5%
-15,3%
-16,7%
-5,4%
-9,1% -9,3%-8,5%
-6,2%
2,9%
-11,1%
1,8%
-5,0%
-2,1%
4,9%
1,1%
4,3%
5,7% 6,1%
1,9%
8,7%8,1%
JAN 16 MAR 16 MAY 16 JUL 16 SEP 16 NOV 16 JAN 17 MAR 17 MAY 17 JUL 17 SEP 17 NOV 17
Total Greece S.Markets
Top Five Retailers
14
Forecasting 2018 Explanatory Variables:
• GDP
• Number of Stores - Carry over effect
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Forecasting model factors
• 4+ years of POS data with key causal measures
• Macroeconomic Factors
– Gross domestic product
– Turnover Index in Retail Trade
– Unemployment rate
– Consumer Price Index (Inflation Rate)
– Per capita figures: GDP and National Income
• Other Research & Data
– Seasonality and Holidays
– Number of Stores
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Variables’ elasticity per category
IRI Analysis
Number of Stores ElasticityGDP Elasticity
0,96
1,84
0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50
PERSONAL CARE BEAUTY
PERSONAL HYGIENE
DAIRY
OTHER HOUSEHOLD…
HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS
Total FMCG
RW
PACKAGED FOOD
BEVERAGES
COOKING AIDS
ALCOHOL DRINKS
SNACKS
FROZEN FOOD
0,59
0,62
0,00 0,50 1,00
PACKAGED FOOD
PERSONAL CARE BEAUTY
PERSONAL HYGIENE
HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS
OTHER HOUSEHOLD…
SNACKS
COOKING AIDS
BEVERAGES
DAIRY
ALCOHOL DRINKS
Total FMCG
RW
FROZEN FOOD
Food & Beverage categories which have positive value trend, have higher elasticities being more sensitive due to GDP & No of stores changes
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Forecasting 2018
IRI Scenario Scenario 2
Categories 2016 vs 2015 2017 vs 2016Forecasting
2018
Forecasting
2018
FMCG & RW -6.2% 3.0% 3.1% 4.8%RW -5.8% 6.3% 5.4% 8.2%
FMCG -6.2% 2.3% 2.6% 4.1%
HOUSEHOLD -4.9% -0.6% 0.7% 1.6%
HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS DETERGENTS -4.9% -1.3% 0.5% 1.4%
OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS -5.1% 0.8% 1.0% 1.9%
HBA -5.7% -1.2% 1.4% 1.6%
PERSONAL CARE BEAUTY -4.2% -1.3% 1.3% 1.5%
PERSONAL HYGIENE -7.5% -1.2% 1.5% 1.7%
FOOD -6.3% 3.2% 3.0% 5.4%
PACKAGED FOOD -5.9% 3.7% 3.8% 6.6%
SNACKS -2.6% 4.9% 4.0% 7.1%
DAIRY -10.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8%
FROZEN FOOD -3.5% 8.4% 3.2% 6.3%
COOKING AIDS -5.4% 0.6% 1.4% 4.5%
BEVERAGES -5.9% 5.9% 5.0% 7.8%
ALCOHOL DRINKS -4.9% 3.2% 2.8% 6.0%
• IRI Scenario / GDP under our estimation for the 2018: 1.28% in average & no unexpected changes
• Scenario 2 / National Target of GDP in 2018 is under 2.8%
IRI Results
GDP 2018:
1.28%
GDP 2018:
2. 8%
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Summary
1Overall 2017 was a positive year both on value and volume in SM, price trend of FMCG is slightly
negative due to the intensive price promotions although is stable for Random Weight
2Main factors influencing 2017 performance were the slight increase of GDP and the number of
stores due to operation of EYS
3 Positive trend of 2017 in SM, due to channel switching during the second semester
4Food sector including Random Weight had positive performance in 2017,on the other hand both HH
and HBA although improved their performance noticed negative trend
5In 2018 the positive trend will be continue if we have the same conditions in the market. Assuming
that we will not have any further increase of the number of stores the only macroeconomic factor
influencing is GDP
6The first IRi scenario, is GDP to be increased as 2017 and the second more optimistic based
on the National target of the Bank of Greece
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Thank you!