Steve Buttrick and Ken PopperThe Nature Conservancy

Identifying Climate Resilient Terrestrial Landscapes in the

Pacific Northwest

Doris Duke Charitable FoundationClimate Change Resilience Project

Conserving Nature’s Stage

Steve ButtrickDir of Conservation Science

Ken PopperSenior Conservation Planner

October 14, 2015

Core Team

Ken Popper: Senior Conservation Planner - ORMichael Schindel: Dir. Information Mgmt. - ORAaron Jones: GIS Analyst - ORBrad McRae: Spatial Ecologist – NA ScienceJim Platt: GIS Analyst – NA ScienceBob Unnasch: Dir of Science – IDSteve Buttrick: Dir of Cons. Science - OR

ProjectArea

Agenda

• Concept and Methods• Use in Conservation Planning

Highly VulnerableLimited capacity to adaptDisrupted function, low diversity

Highly ResilientLarge capacity to adaptSustain function and diversity

Resilience: DefinitionThe capacity for renewal in a dynamic environment

- Gunderson 2000

Resilient site: Has characteristics that maintain ecological functions and will likely sustain a diversity of species even as the composition and ecological processes change.

Vulnerable site: A place where processes are disrupted and fragmented, and diversity is likely to decrease. The site may still perform many natural services

Central Concept

By mapping key geophysical features and evaluating all occurrences of these features for characteristics that buffer against climate effects, we can identify representative examples of geophysical features that are most resilient to climate change.

Premise # 1

Geophysical features underlie the spatial distribution of biodiversity and a region’s biological richness is due, in part, to this geophysical diversity.

Diversity and Land Facets

The higher the number of land facets the higher the number of species

Anderson and Ferree. 2010.Conserving the StageClimate change and the geophysical underpinnings of species diversity, PlosOne

Conserving Nature’s Stage

Soil Order (11)

Elevation (7 with 600m breaks)

Slope (3 breaks)

Alfisols 0-600 0-6 Andisols 600-1,200 6-18 Aridisols 1,200-1,800 Over 18 Entisols 1,800-2,400

Histosols 2,400-3,000 Inceptisols 3000-3,600 Mollisols 3,600-4,200

Spodosols Ultisols

Vertisols Rock

Three geophysical factors and breaks were used to create land facets.(The number of classes defined for each factor is indicated in parentheses,

along with a description of how they were defined)

Land Facet Development

Premise # 2

Topoclimate diversity and local permeability convey a level of resilience to a landscape or site.

Geophysical features underlie the spatial distribution of biodiversity and a region’s biological richness is due, in part, to this geophysical diversity.

Landforms control the distribution of moisture, nutrients and climatic effects.

More Heterogeneity = more options for species to move and rearrange at a given site.

Mt. Mansfield Mt. Mansfield LandformsLandforms

NN

Topoclimate Diversity

Topoclimate Diversity

Heat Load Index: HLI

Compound Topographic Index: CTI

Topoclimate Diversity

Topoclimatic Diversity Index

Local Terrestrial Permeability

Permeability

TerrestrialPermeability

TerrestrialResilience

TerrestrialResilience

Density

Use in Conservation Planning

• Assess existing conservation sites for terrestrial resilience.

Ecoregional Assessments

Portfolio sites intersected and ranked by proportion of Resilient Land Facets

Use in Conservation Planning

• Assess conservation status of resilient land facets in existing conservation portfolios.

• Use Resilience to update ecoregional assessments

Land Facet Targets:

Above Average Resilience

AndAll Land Facets

Land Facet– based Portfolio 32% of project area

Target # of targets % Goals MetBiodiversity 549 44%Land Facets 90 100%

Biodiversity Targets:

Systemsand Species

Biodiversity– based Portfolio 39% of project area

Target # of targets % Goals MetBiodiversity 549 100%Land Facets 90 79%

Combined Land Facet and Biodiversity–based Portfolio

41% of project areaTarget # of targets % Goals MetBiodiversity 549 100%Land Facets 90 100%

All Targets

Met all goals

Use in Conservation Planning

• Assess conservation status of resilient land facets in existing conservation portfolios.

• Use Resilience to update ecoregional assessments• Use Resilience to inform conservation/management

actions on public land.

Use in Conservation Planning

• Assess conservation status of resilient land facets in existing conservation portfolios.

• Use Resilience to update ecoregional assessments• Use Resilience to inform conservation/management

actions on public land.• Leverage results so that new projects are put through a

resilience filter

Use in Conservation Planning

• Assess conservation status of resilient land facets in existing conservation portfolios.

• Use Resilience to update ecoregional assessments• Use Resilience to inform conservation/management

actions on public land.• Leverage results so that new projects are identified

using a resilience filter DDCF Protection Grant: Prioritize underprotected and

overconverted land facets based on1. Resilience2. Ownership3. Conservation Risk

TerrestrialResilience

Steve Buttrick:

sbuttrick@tnc.org

Ken Popper: kpopper@tnc.org

The Nature Conservancy in Oregon

http://nature.ly/resilienceNW

http://nature.ly/resilienceNW

Steve Buttrick:

sbuttrick@tnc.org

Ken Popper: kpopper@tnc.org

The Nature Conservancy in Oregon

http://nature.ly/resilienceNW