Post on 12-Jan-2015
description
ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.ch
Too Complex to FailConcentration and Complexity in Financial Networks
Stefano BattistonTowards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm
September 12, 2013
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments
SNF-Professorship on Financial Networks and Systemic risk
Institute of Banking and Finance, UZH (from Fall 2013)
FOC: Forecasting Financial Crises - EU Project FET-OPEN(2010-2013).
Coord. G. Caldarelli (IMT Lucca), 14 partners, including ECB
SIMPOL: Financial Systems Simulation and Policy Modeling - EUProject FET-OPEN (2013-2015)
Coord. S. Battiston - Financial networks modeling, Crowd-sourcing:engaging people in mapping influence
INET (Inst. of New Econ. Thinking) - Finan. Stability Program,coord. J. Stiglitz (Columbia Univ.).
Activity on Financial Networks, chaired A. Haldane (BoE)
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 2 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Outline
Outline of the talk
Towards a sustainable financialsystem: key dimensions
Interdependence
Complexity
Concentration
Notion of economic value.
200 400 600 800 10000
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Time (days)
DebtR
ank
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 3 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Interdependence
Interdependence
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 4 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Interdependence
Interdependence
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 4 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Interdependence
Interdependence
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 4 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Interdependence
Interdependence
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 4 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Interdependence
Balance Sheet Interlock and Distress Propagation
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 5 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Interdependence
Balance Sheet Interlock and Distress Propagation
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 5 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Interdependence
Balance Sheet Interlock and Distress Propagation
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 5 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Interdependence
Comovements among CDS
Nodes:institutions withtraded CDS
Links:significant
co-movementsbetween spreads.
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 6 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Complexity
Complexity
ComplexInstruments,e.g. derivatives
Complex networkof contracts
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 7 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Complexity
Complexity
Probability of default are interdependent: determination ofequilibrium can be not easy
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 8 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Complexity
Complexity
Probability of default are interdependent: determination ofequilibrium can be not easy
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 8 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Concentration
Concentration: how many relevant market players in the game.
1 Risk is more concentrated. Fewer egg baskets.
2 Higher chances of market power.
High concentration and strong interdependence together:
1 Higher systemic risk (a single big player can affect other big ones)
2 Higher risk of regulatory capture (big players share economicinterests, no collusion)
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 9 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
The Corporate Network
Equity ownership ties:influence and information
40 thousand TNC, 1million actors
1% of the actors: 80% ofinfluence
100 financial firms: 40%of influence.
Stock Debt
Em
plo
yees
Manage−
ment
Board
of
Directors
Corporation
Banks Stockholders Investors
elect
elect
cash−flow rights
Treasury shares
Outstanding shares
(Preferred shares)
Loans
Bonds
cash−flow rights
voting rights
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 10 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
The Corporate Network
Equity ownership ties:influence and information
40 thousand TNC, 1million actors
1% of the actors: 80% ofinfluence
100 financial firms: 40%of influence.
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 10 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
The Corporate Network
Equity ownership ties:influence and information
40 thousand TNC, 1million actors
1% of the actors: 80% ofinfluence
100 financial firms: 40%of influence.
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 10 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
The Corporate Network
Equity ownership ties:influence and information
40 thousand TNC, 1million actors
1% of the actors: 80% ofinfluence
100 financial firms: 40%of influence.
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 10 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 11 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 11 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 11 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 11 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 11 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 11 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
DEXIA
UBS
CREDIT SUISSE
DEUTSCHE BANK
COMMERZBANKBNP
SOCGEN
NATIXIS
BARCLAYS
RBS
HBOSUNICREDITO
MITSUBISHI UFJFORTIS
CITIGROUP
BOA
JPM
WELLS FARGO
WACHOVIAGSACHS
MERRILL LYNCHMORGAN STANLEY
Relative asset size (%)
Debt R
ank
10 b
Debt
90 b
Fragility
3
6
9
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 12 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
DEXIA
UBS
CREDIT SUISSEDEUTSCHE BANK
COMMERZBANKBNPSOCGEN
NATIXIS
BARCLAYSRBS
HBOSUNICREDITO
MITSUBISHI UFJFORTIS
CITIGROUP
BOA
JPM
WELLS FARGO
WACHOVIAGSACHS
MERRILL LYNCHMORGAN STANLEY
Relative asset size (%)
Debt R
ank
10 b
Debt
90 b
Fragility
3
6
9
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 12 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
DEXIA
UBS
CREDIT SUISSE
DEUTSCHE BANK
COMMERZBANK BNP
SOCGEN
NATIXIS
BARCLAYS
RBS
HBOS
UNICREDITO
MITSUBISHI UFJ
FORTIS
CITIGROUP
BOA
JPM
WELLS FARGO
WACHOVIA
GSACHS
MERRILL LYNCH
MORGAN STANLEY
Relative asset size (%)
De
bt
Ra
nk
10 b
Debt
90 b
Fragility
3
6
9
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 12 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
DEXIA
UBS
CREDIT SUISSE
DEUTSCHE BANK
COMMERZBANK BNP
SOCGEN
NATIXIS
BARCLAYSRBS
HBOS
UNICREDITO
MITSUBISHI UFJ
FORTIS
CITIGROUPBOAJPM
WELLS FARGO
WACHOVIAGSACHS
MERRILL LYNCH
MORGAN STANLEY
Relative asset size (%)
De
bt
Ra
nk
10 b
Debt
90 b
Fragility
3
6
9
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 12 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
DEXIA
UBS
CREDIT SUISSE
DEUTSCHE BANK
COMMERZBANK
BNP
SOCGEN
NATIXIS
BARCLAYSRBS
HBOS
UNICREDITO
MITSUBISHI UFJFORTIS
CITIGROUP
BOA
JPMWELLS FARGO
WACHOVIA
GSACHSMERRILL LYNCH
MORGAN STANLEY
Relative asset size (%)
De
bt
Ra
nk
10 b
Debt
90 b
Fragility
3
6
9
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 12 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
DEXIA
UBS
CREDIT SUISSE
DEUTSCHE BANK
COMMERZBANKBNPSOCGEN
NATIXIS
BARCLAYS
RBS
HBOSUNICREDITO
MITSUBISHI UFJFORTIS
CITIGROUP
BOA
JPM
WELLS FARGO
WACHOVIA
GSACHSMERRILL LYNCH
MORGAN STANLEY
Relative asset size (%)
Debt R
ank
10 b
Debt
90 b
Fragility
3
6
9
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 12 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Interplay
When interdependence, complexity and concentration are so high:
AS IF we had one international mega-bank, or not?
Risks
Regulatory capture
Systemic distress
Social divide
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 13 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Interplay
When interdependence, complexity and concentration are so high:
AS IF we had one international mega-bank, or not?
Risks
Regulatory capture
Systemic distress
Social divide
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 13 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
The Notion of Economic Value
Economic value: a social norm.
Investment decisions: where is drive to sustainability?
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 14 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
The Notion of Economic Value
Economic value: a social norm.
Investment decisions: where is drive to sustainability?
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 14 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Conclusions
Scientific work on financial networks and systemic risk: problemsmay have deeper roots than we tend to think.
Seems good to reduce concentration, interdependence andcomplexity, together.
Proposals to reform bank organization could be examined in thislight.
At the same time: a serious effort to extending the notion ofeconomic value.
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 15 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
Related International Activities
SIMPOL (Financial Systems Simulation and Policy Modeling)
FOC (Forecasting Financial Crises)
GSS (Global Systems Science)
GSDP Global Systems and Policies
INET - Systemic Risk Task Force: WG Fin. Nets
MULTIPLEX (Theory of networks of networks)
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 16 / 17
Stefano Battiston ETH Zurich www.sg.ethz.chToo Complex to Fail Concentration
References
Debtrank: [Battiston, Puliga, Kaushik, Tasca, Caldarelli, DebtRank:Too-central-to-fail? (2012) Sci. Rep. 2:541]
Complex derivatives [ Battiston, Caldarelli, Georg, May, Stiglitz, Nat. Phys., 2013]
CDS and network reconstruction [Kaushik R., Battiston S., 2013 PLoS-ONE, forth],[Puliga M., Kaushik R., Battiston S., Caldarelli G., 2013 in progress]
Estimation of systemic risk in networks from partial information: [Musmeci, Puliga,Gabrielli, Battiston, Caldarelli, JOSS 2013, forth.]
Controllability in e-mid [Delpini, Battiston, Riccaboni, Pammolli, Gabbi, Caldarelli,Sci. Rep., 2013, forth.]
Controllability in TARGET2 [Galbiati, Delpini, Battiston, (2013) Nat Phys]
Towards a Sustainable Financial System, Stockholm September 12, 2013 17 / 17