Post on 27-Mar-2015
Steele on IntelligenceWhat can we know, how?
Reflections on the near future.
Google versus the CIA—Five Year Outlook
Robert David Steele VivasHackers in Santa Cruz
13 November 2005
A copy of these slides are at www.oss.netModern IO Portal Page Dated Today (Last Link)
Baseball AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd
OSINT
HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
Potential Earnings IAd Hoc Information Purchase Curve for Current
Western Base of Individual Users Only
5K3K2K1K5C3C2C1C502510
This is an ugly best guess at what the Google population would spend, per year, if they could do one click information purchases from multiple sources--you do the math….
Federal Marketplace
US Spends Today: $5000M
Needs to Spend: $1.5B
Other Governments Should Spend an Equal Amount.
TOTAL: $4B/Year
State & Local Marketplace
50 States Spend Today: $0
Need to Spend: $1.5B in HS funds ($30M/state) for 50 Community Intelligence Centers/networks
Others should follow along.
TOTAL: $3B/Year
Corporate Marketplace
Multinationals Today: $25B
• Mostly “BI” or IT internal DM
• Mediocre sense-making or external à la carte small stuff
Small Business Today: $1B
Should Increase by 10X
TOTAL: $250B/Year
Associational Marketplace
UN, Red Cross, others: $100M
Need to Spend: $1B+
Need to GIVE Google: Raw information
Religions, Clans, and Citizen Intelligence are the Wild Cards--potential for Google customers alone is $8B on a bell curve from $5 to $5000 a year, with $500 as the average.
Plan for the Briefing1000 Sunday Where GIS Was
• 4 minutes on State of the World and the US• 4 minutes of where Google appears to be• 4 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker)• 4 minutes on sources in context• 4 minutes on emerging technical standards• 4 minutes of ethics and morality• 4 minutes on the White Paper for OSIS-X• 4 minute wrap on saving Google from itself
World War III Players
Bacteria
Nation-States
Gangs
Private Sector
Citizens
Mother EarthWater-Air-Green
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Pol Terror Level 3Imprisonment, executions
Pol Terror Level 4Large numbers, torture
Pol Terror Level 5Entire public, no limits
Has actually gotten better, the UN, although corrupt, is working!
Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
Water & War
Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Hyper-Arid
Sub-Humid
Arid
Semi-Arid
Water Pollution
1
2
34
5
6
Global Threats to Local Survival
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
Complex Emergencies32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced66 Countries
Food Security33 Countries
Child Soldiers41 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common80 Countries
Censorship Very High62 Countries
What I Told Congress & US1:You May Not Be Interested in Reality, But
Reality is Interested in You
Of course no one listened. We have to shake the people awake and teach them that information is power.
Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time, and space. Information can create stabilizing
indigenous wealth.
Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs destroy this option.
Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent
The Google Legacy
• Supercomputer• 1/3rd rack cost, optimized
LINUX for speed—10X performance @ half price
• Plug in racks/centers• Inherent back-up• Geospatially aware• Open Office soon?• Going to hand-held as
global access point
State of the Art
• Will blow through these• It’s not about separate sources anymore• It’s not about human reading anymore• It’s about integrating everything:
– Collecting relevant offline information– Machine-aided collation & exploitation– Connecting experts and their students– Presenting the information is a compelling way
OVERVIEWStart with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest
FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your area of interest
FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATIONSee specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention
FOCUS ON A PERSONPhotos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details
GET NEW INSIGHTSThis is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools
READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXTAnything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied
Silobreaker Advances on Google
• This costs $400 a year at full price.• Offered at $200 until the end of the year.• Test it free for seven days by following the
link at www.oss.net.• This has been my secret weapon for years,
now we are commoditizing it and moving on to more complex challenges—creating a World Brain.
Sources
• All information, all languages, all the time
• Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy
• 185 languages, 33 of them “core”
• 12 relevant dialects of Arabic
• Must follow television, radio, audio, street
• 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC
• Cannot be made sense of by single individual
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding
50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
Seven Views of RealityNot sharing, not listening, costs us.
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Technologies• Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access• XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data
smart—the context is in the content• IBM just linked DB2 with Google Enterprise
—when we add CISCO AON and CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally distributed instantly exploitable World Brain
• Foreign language man-machine networks and distributed advanced analytics will add value
• Gaming, not reports, will rule
Five Technical Trends• Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including
streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware receipt of relevant intelligence
• Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put industrial era spies and aggregators out of business—CIA, Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead
• Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at the paragraph level
• Synthetic information breaks the copyright chains—can still pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic knowledge that is original
• Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.
Ethics & Morality
• Secrecy is pathological—secrets can be ignored and manipulated—witness Iraq
• Secrecy displaces dialog—cult of secrecy• Secrecy enables corruption & treason—not
just by governments but by corporations (Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals), and religions (Catholic Church)
• Secrecy undermines social understanding of reality and allows rich to steal from the poor
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
A Revolution is UnderwayPeer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible
Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity
• World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers
• Half the brain—the half that can understand “other” views—dies by the age of 35
• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35—that’s when the brain matures
• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.
Reality Won’t Go Away
• End of cheap oil cascades across everything• End of free water is actually a bigger threat• Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease
could rebalance populations• Rise of crime and corruption reflects the
failure of all governments, including USA, to adapt to fast-changing real world issues
• Collective popular intelligence is in a race for life, a race that will determine our future.
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved ByChanging When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention
– More Peacekeeping
– More Education
– More Long-Term Aid
– Less Corruption
– Less Censorship
We have a sacred duty.
Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible
TECHNICAL HUMAN
III - External InformationEXTERNAL
INTERNAL
OrganizationalMemory System
DataConversion
DataVisualization
HeterogeneousSearch & Retrieval
TripReports
Churning(Rotationals)
LocalKnowledge
Expert Hires“Just Enough,Just in Time”
Internal Reporting
Vendor Reporting
Government Monitoring
Customer Monitoring
Environmental Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
CHUNKS(Intellectual Property)
PERSONALITY(Insight/Intuition)
Patents, Etc.
Trade Secrets
Meta-Data
Knowledge Capital™
Rolodexes/E-Mail
Personal Brand
Out-Sourcing ofInformationProcessing
Project/GroupManagement
Training
BusinessIntelligenceInstitutionalized
E-Commerce
Automated Analysis
Cell #
IV - Organizational Intelligence
I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
Open Sources Global Sources
Multiple Global Language Sources
Global Language and Area Analysis
The Open Loop / Unclassified System:
(Open access to web, on-line, broadcast, published, posted sources internal VPNs; From all sources, from all points of view, and all authors; Expressed in real time, in geo spatial terms, and local context.)
(Foreign language sources captured and processed; and indexed and available directly in the vernacular language and dialect; With accurate details and context; and access to sources and authors)
(Open market access to global domain expertise, and language/area expertise To review, integrate, synthesize, report From accurate real time details and context;With direct access to sources/authors;From the “street corner not the cubicle”)
(Completely unconstrained random sources with random training and experience; with native language and area experience; and orthogonal to the common “correct” DoD/ Intel analysis and reporting)
We need to live in the Real World of Open Sources and Open Analysis
Only Total Access to All
Data and Analysis from All Sources will Validate
Specific Data
Management HubIR&D Funding
DB2/OmniFindClient Standard
Content-Based RoutingPDA & Disk Level Security +
Google EnterpriseGoogleplex LeasedSee Sub-State Slices
Overnight Hard-Copy from EverywhereMigrate Toward Localized Digitization
“Inside the Book” and Ranking Applied to Foreign
Sehda
OSINT Pioneer Decision-Support Pioneer Global Geospatial Pioneer
+
OSINT-DS Toolkit & SourcesAnonymous Access
Data Mining PioneersMachine Translation Pioneer
Hand-Held C4I Terminals
Networking Pioneer Chief Scientist & Architect Installed Base Anonymizer
S-Minds
Influentials by Name
+ +
Cleared Multi-Lingual Operational Support in the Field
$1B/Yr 3
$111B/Yr 10
Pay with information
Pay with cash & information
DoD
$250M/Yr 1
$500M/Yr 2
$1B/Yr 3
$1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC
for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a
coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling
sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture.
1PB/Yr 15 PB/Yr 2
10 PB/Yr 3
Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning
with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground.
USG
10X DoD
with 1-3 year
lag time.
U.S. Based Corporations
OMB pursuing “common solutions” approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now.
Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas.
Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses.
Education Everywhere All Levels
Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertationsto OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “by name” into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus onrestoring education and research as the engines for wealthproduction through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, wefocus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation.
Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits.
United NationsAll NGOs, World Bank, IMF
Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side.
Labor Unions & ReligionsCitizens & Advocacy Groups
It’s no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments.
The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED
OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals)
GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations)
Intelink-X
USA Earns Nobels Across S&T
Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X
USA DGI, GIC, GSC
World Intelligence Network
General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant.Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.
Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad
Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping
DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council
OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM
# = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global
You Are Here...
12
3
Far Future
Near Future
Present
Historical Memory
Intelligence and
Research
Policy Planning Staff SP
Semantic Architecture Network
NSA
State Department Networks IC Networks
CIA
DIA
IC
Example 4. Global ST Community: Linking Science / Technology / Bio-Medical Expertise
Analysis & Policy
Intel & Analysis
EA
SA
NEA
AF
WHA
EUR
RegionalBureaus
IO
Legislative Affairs
Science Affairs
OES
STAS
Commercial Science
Community
USG Science
Community
NIH
Academic Science
Community
NSF
DoD
Other Federal & State
Agencies
UniversityResearch
CorporateResearch
TraditionalPublished Journals
On-LinePublished Journals
ContentDistributors
ProfessionalSocieties
NP
VCUS NGOFunded
Research
VPN & Internet Sources
DoE
USDA
USG VPN
White House Liaison
Global NGOFunded
Research
IndividualsIndividuals
What is our current scientific/technical TOPIC knowledge; and WHO are the EXPERTS?
OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM
Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets
You Are Here...
12
3
Gaming Future ROIs
Foreign Viewpoints
Reality
Public Memory
Secrecy rules
Elites rules
Act on 2% of the info.
People complacent
Short-term view
Unilateral militarism
Immoral capitalism
Big stick works BUT
Long-term cost not visible to public
Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form
Automated Extraction of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing and Converting Data Formats
Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data
Automated Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Detection of Alert Situations
Clustering and Linking of
Related Data
Statistical Analysis to Reveal
Anomalies
Detection of Changing Trends
Interactive Search and Retrieval of
Data
Graphic and Map-Based Visualization
of Data
Modeling and Simulations
Collaborative Work
Notetaking and Organizing Ideas
Structured Argument Analysis
Desktop Publishing and
Word Processing
Production of Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking and Realtime Group
Review
Finished Intelligence and Reporting
A
B
C
SECRET BIG DATA
• NSA-NGA
• SAIC
• HARRIS
• NG-MS
NOT SECRET BIG DATA
• UN, Red Cross, NGOs…
• NASA , public geospatial
• Factiva
• LEXIS-NEXIS
SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA
• Intelink
• ARDA
• ITIC
• JHU/APL
NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA
• CISCO
• Google/Libraries
• Amazon Inside the Book
• Napster Plus
Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X)
SIPRNET
Credits: Mike Hayden, Original Concept; Robert Steele, Labels & OSINT-Ops-Other; Steve Edwards, Turned Upside Down
Point of Entry Raw Produces Actionable Intelligence
Processed Raw
OPINTEL
Finished Intelligence
Policy Package
Public Perception
HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT OSINT OPS OTHER
HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT OSINT OPS OTHER
Dots need to be connecting at every level,Including immediately upon ingestion.
Today, one third of the dots connect here.(Collect 2/3rd, spill half—some say 80%)
Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form
Automated Extraction of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing and Converting Data Formats
Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data
Automated Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Detection of Alert Situations
Clustering and Linking of
Related Data
Statistical Analysis to Reveal
Anomalies
Detection of Changing Trends
Interactive Search and Retrieval of
Data
Graphic and Map-Based Visualization
of Data
Modeling and Simulations
Collaborative Work
Notetaking and Organizing Ideas
Structured Argument Analysis
Desktop Publishing and
Word Processing
Production of Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking and Realtime Group
Review
NEW: Intelligent Network Enables Applications At All Points
OLD:
Paradigm Shift in Information
• Dots don’t know they are secret until some human decides this.
• Dots gain value from swarming, lose value within compartmentation.
• Dots gain value from history and context.
• Dots gain value from speed of delivery.
• Dots in a foreign language are smarter.
Information for All Four Levels
Strategic Planning
Operational Coordination
Tactical Employment
Acquisition Design
• History
• Context
• Current Awareness
• Key Personalities/Motivators
• Imagery & Image Maps
• Translation Support
• Strategic Generalizations
• Critical Technologies
This is about information superiority across the board, not just enhancing all-source intelligence!
Inter-Agency Collaboration
SOJICC
J-2 J-3
J-1MP
J-5CA
J-4Eng
J-6IT
CGR2
INTELLIGENCE CLUSTER
80% Unclassified Information
NGO CLUSTER
LEA CLUSTER
SERVICE CLUSTER
CIVIL CLUSTER
COALITION CLUSTER
?
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Teams Crossing All Boundaries
Google-India & World Brain
• Four OPENS– Open source software
– Open source information
– Open spectrum
– Open Hypertext Document System
• We are close to both victory & salvation.
• Centers in each region
• Unite the seven tribes– Transnationally
– Locally
• Bottom-up people power
• He who enters data rules, not he who hides or manipulates data
• Openness is the antidote to secrecy & corruption.
Do No Evil & Counter Evil
• Taking money from US IC is very bad idea.• Poor people are the wild cards.• Foreign poor people are the best wild cards.• Beltway bandits are evil and the alternative to a smart,
moral, globally-responsible Google.• Need to create global multinational intelligence sharing
network rather than augmenting national secret networks.• It’s time for Google to grow up, scale up, and rule in a
United Nations/friend to all manner, NOT NOT NOT as a secret ally of the U.S. Government. Cut the IC ties NOW.
Humble Suggestions for Google
• Buy Silobreaker, Vivisimo, & the Institute of Scientific Information
• Partner with Amazon, FedEx-Kinkos• Explode World Bank and UN Relationships• Integrate CISCO AON and IPCIPS• Replicate or cooperate with Skype• Fund global man-machine foreign language
translation and advanced analytics network• BE the Global Intelligence Network/World Brain
Spread the Word
Robert David Steele VivasCEO, OSS.Net, Inc.Coach, Global Intelligence
Partnership (20 companies & rising)
Bear@oss.net703.242.1700Will speak for sushi.Use MoveOn.Org OSINT
topic to organize everywhere in the world