Post on 13-Jun-2018
SPMP-MED A Sustainable Pest Management technological
Platform for the MEDiterranean basin
Gilioli G.(1,4), Caroli A.(1), Memo M.(1),
Castelli F.(1), Ponti L. (2,4), Gutierrez A.P. (3,4)
1. University of Brescia, Italy gianni.gilioli@unibs.it
2. ENEA, UTAGRI-ECO, Roma, Italy
3. College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
4. Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agro-ecological Systems, Kensington, California, USA
2nd SDSN for Mediterranean Conference "Solutions for Agri-Food Sustainability in the
Mediterranean" Siena 5-6 March, 2015
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Food production: a factor 2 from now to 2050 Food accessibility:
a factor 1.15 from now to 2050
Environmental impact: we start from almost 0
1. Introduction
• Major challenges in agri-food from now to 2050
• Different meanings and different contexts – Different methods/techniques
• Comparative assessment
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• The case of pest
management – The failure of the
classical approach based on chemical control only
– The issue of the environmental pollution and health impact
Sustainability in agriculture
Main areas of innovation for sustainable pest management
• Management options – Managing agro-ecosystem structure and dynamics
• Acting on ecosystem resistance and resilience • E.g.: habitat and community diversity
– New pesticides • Minimizing the impact of the environment and human health
• Decision support systems and decision making (rational
pest management schemes how, when and where) – Knowledge – Technologies – Processes of implementation
• Implication for many SDGs
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The proposed solution (Unibs, ENEA, UC-Berkeley, CASAS)
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Knowledge
Technology
Process
SPMP-MED A Sustainable Pest Management
technological Platform for the MEDiterranean basin
• Damage caused by pest is related to a set of processes and conditions that are knowable in advance
• Population dynamics of abundance or prevalence are the key elements of knowledge driving force
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Environmental Management
Pesticide Management
Population Abundance/ prevalence
Impact on cultivated plants
Impact on the environment
2. The knowledge
• Pest is a player in a trophic network
• Each level supplies resource to the next
• The dynamics of system abundance can be described using the same model in all trophic levels
Sun
Plant
Growth
Respiration
Wastage
Reproduction
Minerals,
CO2, H2O Herbivore
Gr.
Resp.
Egestion
Repr.
Carnivore
Gr.
Resp.
Egestion
Repr.
Sun
Plant
Growth
Respiration
Egestion
Reproduction
Herbivory Minerals,
CO2, H2O
Temperature
Respiration
Photosynthate
• The processes are based on the supply/demand ratio for resources
• Inflow/outflow processes have similar shapes described by the same functions
• The functions depend on environmental forcing variables
1( )t )(2 t i t( ) k t( )
N1(t) x0(t) y(t) N2(t) Ni(t) Nk(t)
Birth
Death
…
2 ( )r t1( )ir t 1( )kr t1( )r t
k = 30
k = 10
k = 5
k = 1
Developmental time
Frequency
of maturation
times
• Temporal population dynamics is described by Physiologically-Based Demographic Models
x,y
Individual
Population
Area
Region
Biology
Geographic distribution
• The consideration of the spatial scale (GIS integration occurs at the population level)
• Background – Common structure of knowledge for rational and
sustainable pest management schemes
– The importance of tools to select, organize and generate knowledge to establish a scientifically-based procedure for the PM, in order
– To make the procedure of decision making in PM increasingly standardized by means of decision support tools
– The development of a platform
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3. The technology
Meteo stations
Input data
Model
GIS analysis
Maps
N (t) = N (0) + f (t) - g (t)
Plant and pests
High resolution simulation
Bio-ecology database
• Components of a sustainable pest management technological platform
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Global (coarse topography)
Climate level
Dell’Aquila et al. 2012
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Global (coarse topography)
Regional (greater detail)
Climate level
Dell’Aquila et al. 2012
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Plant level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Plant level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Plant level
Pest level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Plant level
Pest level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Plant level
Pest level
Climate level
Economic level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Plant level
Pest level
Climate level
Economic level Change in profit (€ ha-1)
-256 0 431
Ponti et al. 2014
• Common presumptions in many traditional (top-down) management schemes – Exists a linear chain causes-effects
– Consider necessary and sufficient intervention on a single level (often relying on a single technology)
– Complexity of interaction between social and ecological sub-systems and between these and management are often disregarded
PEST ABUNDANCE
SOCIO- ECONOMICS
YIELD PEST
CONTROL
4. The process
• Management: complexity and non linearity – Neither simple approaches nor silver bullet technologies – Rational management schemes are needed
Decision making
Env. data Experts in modelling
Extension service
Experts in IPM
Data gathering
Information to the stakeholders
Actions (at farm level)
Bio. data
Model output
• A classical scheme of a top-down approach in Integrated Pest Management
DATA GATHERING, ANALYSIS AND MODELLING
AGRO-ECOSYSTEM
PLANT HOSTS
- Phenology
- Status
ENVIRONMENT
- Ecosystem
properties
- Land use
- Weather
PESTS
- Population
dynamics
- Status
MONITORING
DATA
PROCESSING
- Database
- GIS
SYSTEM
ANALYSIS AND
MODELLING
OPERATIONS
DECISION
MAKING
ACTORSS
Individual end-users
and organizations
Research team
and facilitators
Institutions and
NGOs
- Agronomic
- Pests control
- Habitat
management
• The adaptive management approach and the technological innovation systems
5. CONCLUDING REMARKS
• Since the 1970 the approach has been successfully implemented – Different contexts: crop pests (open field and protected
crops), invasive alien species, arthropod-transmitted diseases (humans and animals)
– Many systems: cotton, cassava, coffee, olive, vineyard, etc. – Many regions: USA, South America, Sub-Saharan Africa,
Mediterranean area
• Technology use has to be considered as part of
innovation system implementation – Focus on the technology – Link innovation and application – Considering the institutional, organizational and cultural
dimensions 27
• Implications for the good governance – Flexibility of the technology (different scales) – Assessment: exploration of scenarios for sustainable pest
management scheme – Analysis of agricultural resilience and adaptability (e.g., climate
change) – Bio-economic analysis (risk and opportunity) – Decision support for different stakeholder communities and
interests
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• What is the remaining work to do – Improving the architecture of the system and database – Improving generality and developing a user interface
• What we look for
– Opportunities for cooperation and involvement in projects
– Resources for developing new solutions for the Mediterranean area
– Contribute to the design the sustainable development agenda for the Mediterranean region in the area of pest management
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