Speen Area Action GroupSpeen Area Action Group

High Speed 2 PresentationHigh Speed 2 Presentation

Mel Foster – Chair Mel Foster – Chair

July 27July 27thth 2010 2010

Covers Speen, Lacey Green, Loosely Covers Speen, Lacey Green, Loosely Row, North Dean, Gt. HampdenRow, North Dean, Gt. Hampden Formal committee formed Formal committee formed HS2 microsite created at HS2 microsite created at speenbucks.org.ukspeenbucks.org.uk HS2 Action Alliance affiliationHS2 Action Alliance affiliation Registered for Bucks CC summit meetingsRegistered for Bucks CC summit meetings Working with Chiltern SocietyWorking with Chiltern Society Regular updates and campaign promotionsRegular updates and campaign promotions

EXCEPTIONAL HARDSHIP SCHEME EXCEPTIONAL HARDSHIP SCHEME

Speen Area Action GroupSpeen Area Action Group

New Government won’t carry through New Government won’t carry through Labour’s plansLabour’s plans

Even if it happens, it will not come hereEven if it happens, it will not come here

It won’t really affect usIt won’t really affect us

It’s in the National Interest It’s in the National Interest

Why all the fuss?Why all the fuss?

New Government won’t carry through New Government won’t carry through Labour’s plansLabour’s plans

Sadly, not so – even more committed to high Sadly, not so – even more committed to high speed rail. More lines, faster implementation speed rail. More lines, faster implementation etc;etc;

Believe it is part of a low-carbon strategyBelieve it is part of a low-carbon strategy Local MPs are gagged by Ministerial CodeLocal MPs are gagged by Ministerial Code Central policy dogma not questioning enough Central policy dogma not questioning enough

Why all the fuss?Why all the fuss?

Even if it happens, it will not come hereEven if it happens, it will not come here

Public consultation now scheduled for early Public consultation now scheduled for early 2011 on referred route2011 on referred route

If this is rejected for any reason, another route If this is rejected for any reason, another route can be chosen without further consultation.can be chosen without further consultation.

Why all the fuss?Why all the fuss?

It won’t really affect usIt won’t really affect us

It’s in the National Interest It’s in the National Interest

Why all the fuss?Why all the fuss?

HS2HS2

Steve Rodrick, Chief OfficerSteve Rodrick, Chief Officer

PresentationPresentation

The Chilterns The Chilterns Conservation BoardConservation Board

Set up by Parliament in 2004Set up by Parliament in 2004

To conserve and enhance the natural beauty To conserve and enhance the natural beauty of the Chilterns AONBof the Chilterns AONB

To promote understanding and enjoyment.To promote understanding and enjoyment. 27 Board members 27 Board members

13 appointed by local authorities13 appointed by local authorities 8 elected by parish councils8 elected by parish councils 6 appointed by the Secretary of State6 appointed by the Secretary of State

RoutesRoutes

Route 3Route 3 Amersham, Gt. Missenden, WendoverAmersham, Gt. Missenden, Wendover ‘‘Preferred’ or recommended routePreferred’ or recommended route

Route 2.5Route 2.5 Hughenden, North Dean, Lacey Green Hughenden, North Dean, Lacey Green

Horsenden, HaddenhamHorsenden, Haddenham ‘‘Alternative preferred route’Alternative preferred route’

Route 4Route 4 Colne Valley Colne Valley

Route 2.5 Lacey Grn - HorsendenRoute 2.5 Lacey Grn - Horsenden

Route 2.5 tunnel exit - HorsendenRoute 2.5 tunnel exit - Horsenden

Route 2.5 near HaddenhamRoute 2.5 near Haddenham

What does a high speed What does a high speed railway look like?railway look like?

What does a high speed What does a high speed railway look like?railway look like?

7 – 10 years of construction7 – 10 years of construction Road closures and congestion Road closures and congestion Dust & dirt (do not hang washing out!)Dust & dirt (do not hang washing out!) 40 tonne trucks all over the area40 tonne trucks all over the area Noise and light pollutionNoise and light pollution Workers campsWorkers camps 5 mile wide construction zone5 mile wide construction zone

NoiseNoise

““Some 21,300 dwellings could experience Some 21,300 dwellings could experience a noticeable increase in rail noise.”a noticeable increase in rail noise.”

VibrationVibration

““An estimated 9,400 houses over An estimated 9,400 houses over tunnel sections could experience tunnel sections could experience vibration impacts.”vibration impacts.”

It won’t really affect us?It won’t really affect us?

The CC Board does not believe The CC Board does not believe that there is a proven case that it that there is a proven case that it is in the national interest - is in the national interest - economic or environmentaleconomic or environmental

This view is widely shared: This view is widely shared: Chiltern Society, HS2AA, just Chiltern Society, HS2AA, just about anyone who really studies about anyone who really studies the facts the facts

National InterestNational Interest

Is a new railway needed?Is a new railway needed? Justification is based on a 267% increase Justification is based on a 267% increase

in demand to 2033in demand to 2033 Actual long distance demand has been static Actual long distance demand has been static

since 1995 –some modal shift from coachessince 1995 –some modal shift from coaches More realistic demand forecasts can be More realistic demand forecasts can be

met from existing networkmet from existing network Virgin Pendolinos with extra carriages etc; Virgin Pendolinos with extra carriages etc;

could deliver a 65% increase in capacitycould deliver a 65% increase in capacity Chiltern Railways also has significant potentialChiltern Railways also has significant potential

Is a new railway needed?Is a new railway needed? Demand forecasts are always wrong:Demand forecasts are always wrong:

Eurostar running at 50% of forecastEurostar running at 50% of forecast Recent WCML forecasts downgraded 5 times Recent WCML forecasts downgraded 5 times

since 2005since 2005 High speed Javelin service from St. Pancras High speed Javelin service from St. Pancras

to Dover has already been cut due to lack of to Dover has already been cut due to lack of demand- after only 4 months in servicedemand- after only 4 months in service

Current case takes no account of:Current case takes no account of: Impact of IT on communications vs travelImpact of IT on communications vs travel Cost pressure causing irreversible cuts in Cost pressure causing irreversible cuts in

travel budgetstravel budgets

A new railway will regenerate the regionsA new railway will regenerate the regions ““..wider economic impacts are likely to ..wider economic impacts are likely to

be a relatively small part of the business be a relatively small part of the business case for HS2 at a national level.”case for HS2 at a national level.”

““.. The impact on national productivity is .. The impact on national productivity is likely to be limited.”likely to be limited.”

““80% of journeys will be to London”80% of journeys will be to London”

Is a new railway needed?Is a new railway needed?

Currently showing a return on investment Currently showing a return on investment of 2.4of 2.4 Based on unrealistic demand forecastsBased on unrealistic demand forecasts Actual costs exceed revenues for stage Actual costs exceed revenues for stage

1 by £10 billion. 1 by £10 billion. £28 billion benefit is ‘notional’ based on £28 billion benefit is ‘notional’ based on

saving business travel timesaving business travel time £70k p.a. salary & non-productive on £70k p.a. salary & non-productive on

traintrain

The business caseThe business case

No ‘dis-benefits’ included in the caseNo ‘dis-benefits’ included in the case

Precedential damage to an AONBPrecedential damage to an AONB Loss of amenity to countrysideLoss of amenity to countryside Loss of property valueLoss of property value Damage to natural resources e.g. Damage to natural resources e.g.

Chilterns AquiferChilterns Aquifer

The business caseThe business case

The Low Carbon CaseThe Low Carbon Case ““The Government is committed to the The Government is committed to the

establishment of a high speed rail network as establishment of a high speed rail network as part of its programme of measures to create a part of its programme of measures to create a low carbon economy”low carbon economy” P Hammond July 25P Hammond July 25thth

Emissions per passenger will be double what Emissions per passenger will be double what they are now on the West Coast Main Line.they are now on the West Coast Main Line.

They will double again if the trains run at 400 They will double again if the trains run at 400 kph rather than 300pkhkph rather than 300pkh

The Low Carbon CaseThe Low Carbon Case At best the overall impact on carbon emissions At best the overall impact on carbon emissions

will be neutral. (HS2)will be neutral. (HS2)

That will depend upon significant introduction of That will depend upon significant introduction of renewable energyrenewable energy

No technological improvement in aviation / No technological improvement in aviation / vehicle emissions technologyvehicle emissions technology

Will it end domestic UK flights?Will it end domestic UK flights?

““The total market for accessing Heathrow from the West The total market for accessing Heathrow from the West Midlands, North West, North and Scotland is currently Midlands, North West, North and Scotland is currently around 3.7 million trips. Our modelling suggests around 3.7 million trips. Our modelling suggests relatively little of this would shift to HS2.”relatively little of this would shift to HS2.”

n.b Current passenger throughput of Heathrow is 67 million n.b Current passenger throughput of Heathrow is 67 million per annumper annum

“ “ Under any scenario the number of Under any scenario the number of international international passengers on HS2 is likely to passengers on HS2 is likely to be fairly limited”be fairly limited”

Only 2% of Only 2% of motorway trafficmotorway traffic will switch to will switch to HS2HS2

Value for Money?Value for Money?

Each minute saved on the journey Each minute saved on the journey between Birmingham and London between Birmingham and London

will cost at least:will cost at least:

£540,000,000£540,000,000

New Government won’t carry through New Government won’t carry through Labour’s plansLabour’s plans

Even if it happens, it will not come hereEven if it happens, it will not come here

It won’t really affect usIt won’t really affect us

It’s in the National Interest It’s in the National Interest

Why all the fuss?Why all the fuss?

What you can doWhat you can do Input to the Treasury CSR consultation

http://spendingchallenge.hm-treasury.gov.ukhttp://spendingchallenge.hm-treasury.gov.uk// Write to your MP Write to the Sec of State for Transport Write to the Chancellor Write to the PM Write to all party leaders Get involved

QuestionsQuestions