Space Tourism

And

Sustainable Development

Steven Fawkes

29th November 2006

BIS European Developments

in Space Tourism Conference

Space Tourism and Sustainable Development

may seem incompatible but…links on five levels:

• operational

• cultural

• economic

• resources

• survival

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

1986: 1st market study

1985: Society Expeditions/Phoenix

1996: X Prize announced

1998: Space Adventures formed

2001: Denis Tito flight to ISS

2004: SpaceShipOne first private spaceflight

2006: Spaceport developments

1968: Seminal papers by Hilton &

Ehricke

1972: Club of Rome report

1962: Silent Spring by

Rachel Carson

1970: US EPA formed

1990: 1st IGPCC report on global

warming1997: Kyoto

Protocol

2005: GE launch Ecomagination & Walmart launches

sustainability objectives

1995: Brent Spar

1973: 1st oil crisis

2000: 50% population

live in cities

Space Tourism and Sustainable Development Timelines

Sustainable Development

“development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

MAJOR INTERCONNECTED ISSUES: • Population growth• Wealth distribution• Resources:

• Water • Energy• Minerals• Food

• Environment:• Atmosphere• Land• Sea

Sustainable Development – Population Growth

Overlays Will Day, 2006

Sustainable Development – Wealth Distribution

Sustainable Development – Water

Overlays Will Day, 2006

Sustainable Development - Energy

Overlays Will Day, 2006

Sustainable Development – Mineral Resources

“Providing today’s developed country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.”

R.B.Gordon, M. Bertram and T.E. GraedelYale University

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America23rd Jan 2006

Sustainable Development - Resources

Sustainable Development – The Environment

“Air pollution causes 2 million premature deaths a year”

World Health Organisation

“Air pollution causes nearly 170,000 deaths a year in China”

World Bank

Sustainable Development – The Environment

Sustainable Development – Connections

Overlays Will Day, 2006

Corporate Responses to Sustainable Development

Rejection and Non-responsiveness: “Very few companies today are actively opposed to sustainability concepts; most are simply ignorant of the issues and non-responsive” (WWF, 2003).

Compliance: The “vast majority” of companies – activities include reducing operating risks and impacts and protection of corporate reputation.

Efficiency: Actions include introducing policies to reduce costs. Despite the benefits to be gained, this approach to critical issues is often “managed outside the core business activities, and so missing strategic opportunities for value creation” (Draper, 2006).

Strategic Proactivity: At this stage, corporations seek competitive advantage by, among others, engagement with stakeholders in product development.

Sustaining corporations: “Vanguard” companies (WWF 2003) which are pioneering alternative interpretations of business values and success.

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations

MAJOR ISSUES:

• Design of ground based facilities:

• energy

• resource use

• sustainable design and operation

• Design of vehicles:

• emissions (need holistic analysis)

• cradle to cradle “C2C” design

• Carbon neutral trip – offsets:

• estimated cost of offset:

• £25 for sub-orbital (cf. London to Singapore return)

• £1,500 for launch to ISS (Soyuz technology, 3 PAX)

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations

FAILURE TO BUILD SUSTAINABILITY INTO ANY BUSINESS IS NOW A MAJOR BUSINESS RISK:

• Market perception risk

• Regulatory risk

• Social pressure risk (NGOs/public opinion)

BE CONSISTENT:

Failure to be consistent is a business risk

Space Tourism and Sustainability – Operations

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SPACE TOURISM ON CULTURE:

• environmental consciousness

• inspiration of the young

• the frontier culture

• sense of purpose

• optimism

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

This photo is credited with kick-starting the mass environmental movement

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

“Before I flew, I was already aware of how small and vulnerable our planet is; but only when I saw it from space, in all its ineffable beauty and fragility, did I realize that humankind's most urgent task is to cherish and preserve it for future generations.”

Sigmund Jaehn , 1st German Cosmonaut

“Nothing could have prepared me for the beauty of the view. It was breathtaking – watching the Earth from above without seeing borders, wars and divisions and realising how fragile the planet is. Every world leader should make the trip. They’d start to see things differently.”

Anousheh Ansari

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

"The way I want to inspire kids is to fly to space and let them know that they can too”

Burt Rutan

“Space, the final frontier”

Star Trek

“Where there is no vision the people perish”

Solomon, Proverbs 29 v8

“Perhaps the core message is that evolution and exploration are inseparable, that the curious intellect and the wondering spirit are the evolutionary process from inside. They are the hallmarks of humanity and the true propellants of spaceflight.”

Wyn Wachorst

“Man must explore and this is exploration at its greatest”

Dave Scott, Apollo 15

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Economics

A NEW INDUSTRY:

''What this country needs is a really good $500 billion technology - something to reignite popular enthusiasm and the economy'‘

R Samuelson, Washington Post

Space tourism revenue forecasts:

$100 billion/year by 2030

$1 trillion/year by 2060

Patrick Collins

Space tourism facts:

$1 billion committed investment in spaceports - 2006

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources

“3554 Amun, a mile wide lump of iron, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and other metals that has an orbit closely resembling that of the Earth’s……….3554 Amun contains thirty times as much metal as has ever been mined by human beings in the history of Earth. It’s value, at current prices and if mined slowly to keep commodity prices level, is estimated to be 20 trillion dollars.”

John S. Lewis

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources

Solar Power Satellites

Projected European power demand in 2020 is 535 GW

Energy dependence set to grow from 50% to 70% by 2030

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources

Lunar helium–3 as a fuel source for fusion power

Potential value of $140 million/100 kg

“But one assumption that I know will be justified is that the Moon, the near-Earth asteroids, and the rest of the solar system contain the resources that will take mankind to the next level of civilization and prosperity.” Mike Griffin, NASA Administrator

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival

“20 ways the world could end” include:

Pandemic

Nuclear war

Gamma ray burst

Asteroid impact

Mega tsunami

Super volcanoes

Catastrophic climate change

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival

“The real space race is between spaceflight and extinction”

J. Richard Gott

“If we were up there among the planets, if there were self-sufficient human communities on many worlds, our species would be insulated from catastrophe,”

Carl Sagan

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions

Space Tourism is a growing industry

Sustainable Development reflects real problems

Sustainable Development is a business opportunity

Space Tourism links directly to Sustainable Development through:

• operations

• culture

• economics

• resources

• survival

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions

Large parts of the Sustainable Development “industry” will oppose the idea of Space Tourism

If the Space Tourism industry sees Sustainable Development as just as a “compliance issue”, then it will face considerable opposition

Need to mitigate risks by:

Designing sustainability into operations and systems

Making the case that space is a vital part of sustainability

A rare opportunity to design Sustainable Development into a new industry from the start

I have learned to use the word impossible with great caution

Wernher von Braun

A Final Thought

Thank you for listening