Space Manned Missions “What a joke !”

Arnaud Demay@A_Demay

Space Engineer

SpaceUp Paris 25&26/05/2013

Going beyond the limits, discovering new frontiers

Probability of death (in a normal life): 10-6 per hour

Probability of loss of passengers: 10-8 per hour

Probability of loss of the crew: 10-3 per mission

Having a better probability means a fu***ng bigger S/C

One key wordSAFETY

Crossing the atmosphere:P > 5,000 Pascals !Failure rate ~ 5%

Design failures (F2, 5, 15, 18) then production failures (F36, 63, 70)Longest series of successes is 74

Huge production (more than 1750 flights…) Longest series of successes is 149

Reliability under 10-2

Escape system for the crew is mandatory

654 astro/cosmonauts above 100km38 countries520 reached LEO24 went beyond : the Moon

“I’m sorry Dave.I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

4 cosmonauts and 14 astronauts died (less than 2%)

A design principle FO/FS criteria

Failure Detection, Identification and Recovery

-> FDIR methodology

Constraint: Volume

Example of a Mars mission: time duration in space

Long mission: a LOT of challenges

Thank you !Keep enjoying space

Arnaud Demay@A_Demay

Space Engineer

SpaceUp Paris 25&26/05/2013