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Sovereign Debt Conference
Session 2: Eurozone Countries at Risk (then and now)Prof. Louka T. KatseliLondon,
09.09.2013
2008 main economic features: Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece
GDP* General
Government Gross Debt**
Current-Account
Balance**
Annual Real Effective Exchange Rates vs
Euroarea***
General Government
balance**
Gross Fixed Capital Formation as (%) of
GDP*
Unemployment Rate*
PORTUGAL 0.0 71.6 -12.6 101.94 -3.6 22,5 8.5
SPAIN 0.9 40.1 -9.6 102.84 -4.5 28,7 11.3
IRELAND -3.0 44.3 -5.6 94.48 -7.3 21,8 6.3
GREECE -0.2 113.0 -17.9 103.84 -9.8 22,6 16.6* Annual percentage change
** As a percentage of GDP
*** 2005=100 (Price deflator, exports of goods and services)
Source: EUROPEAN ECONOMY 6|2011
Sovereign Debt Conference
2008 – 2012 Macroeconomic Policy Measures: Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece
Government Expenditures (%) of
GDP*
Total Tax Revenue (%) of GDP** Labour Compensation per
Employee**** Unit Labour Cost****
2008 2012 2008 2011*** 2008 2012 2008 2012
PORTUGAL 44,8(77)
47,5(78,4) 35,9 36,1 108,7 110,1 104,5 99,8
SPAIN 41,5(450,9)
48,0(493,6) 35,5 33,0 115,2 120,4 113,0 106,4
IRELAND 42,7(77)
42,0(68,8) 31,1 29,7 114,9 111,5 112,6 96,5
GREECE 50,6(117,9)
54,8(106) 34,2 34,9 111,0 103,7 101,5 102,9
*General Government Expenditures in bl. € in parenthesis**Total Revenue from Taxes and Social Contributions as a (%) of GDP***no available data for 2012**** OECD Index base (2005=100)Source: European Commission – Eurostat Database, OECD Stat Extracts
Sovereign Debt Conference
2012 and 2013 main economic features: Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece
GDP* General
Government Gross Debt**
Current-Account
Balance**
Annual Real Effective Exchange
Rates vs Euro area***
General Government
Balance**
Gross Fixed Capital Formation as (%) of
GDP
Unemployment Rate*
PORTUGAL-3.2 (-2.3)
123.6 (123.0)
-1.9 (0.1) 102.61 -6.4
(-5.5)16
(14,7)15.9 (18.2)
SPAIN-1.4 (-1.5)
84.2 (91.3)
-0.9 (1.6) 103.51 -10.6
(-6.6)19,2 (17,7)
25.0 (27.0)
IRELAND0.9
(1.1)117.6
(123.3)5.0 (3.1) 96.35 -7.6
(-7.5)10,0 (10,3)
14.7 (14.2)
GREECE-6.4
(-4.2)156.9
(175.2)-5.3
(-2.8) 111.02 -10.0(-3.8)
13,1 (13,2)
24.3(27.0)
* Annual percentage change** As a percentage of GDP*** 2005=100 (Price deflator, exports of goods and services)2013 forecasts in parenthesesSource: European Economic Forecast, EUROPEAN ECONOMY 2|2013, Spring 2013
Sovereign Debt Conference
Key Questions:
1.Given the experience and policy responses, what are likely short-term and medium term prospects for the economy, debt, financial sustainability and the Eurozone?
2.What are important lessons for Eurozone and national policies to be drawn from national experiences (successes and failures)? How best to tackle growing debt and rising unemployment?
3.What are the future major risks and policy challenges for the Eurozone?
Sovereign Debt Conference