Societal-Systems Analysis:Societal-Systems Analysis:State Fragility and Political InstabilityState Fragility and Political Instability

Monty G. MarshallMonty G. MarshallCenter for Global PolicyCenter for Global Policy

George Mason UniversityGeorge Mason University

Complex, Adaptive (Eco-)Systems

All ecosystems are exposed to gradual changes…Nature is usually assumed to respond to gradual change in a smooth way.

However…smooth change can be interrupted by sudden drastic switches to a contrasting state. Although diverse events can trigger such shifts, recent studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state.

This suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on [building and] maintaining resilience….Stability domains typically depend on slowly changing variables…These factors may be predicted, monitored, and modified. In contrast, stochastic events that trigger state shifts are usually difficult to predict or control.

Marten Scheffer, Steve Carpenter, Jonathan A. Foley, Carl Folke, and Brian Walker. 2001.

“Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems.” Nature 413 (11 October 2001), pp. 591 and 596.

Precursors to Societal-System Failure Precursors to Societal-System Failure (Context)(Context)

Society: coherence and cohesivenessSociety: coherence and cohesiveness Networks – associational ties and interactionsNetworks – associational ties and interactions Impediments: size (area, population), endowment, Impediments: size (area, population), endowment,

diversity, level of technologiesdiversity, level of technologies System: state formation and performanceSystem: state formation and performance

Management – inclusive, representative, responsive, Management – inclusive, representative, responsive, accountable (sociational vs. instrumental strategies)accountable (sociational vs. instrumental strategies)

Problems: Problems: capturecapture, ignorance, incompetence, , ignorance, incompetence, marginalization, polar marginalization, polar factionalismfactionalism

Prospects: Risk and ResiliencyProspects: Risk and Resiliency

Polar (Macro-)Factionalism:Polar (Macro-)Factionalism:Insights to Political DynamicsInsights to Political Dynamics

Democracy-Predominate SystemDemocracy-Predominate System

The Polity dualistic authority scheme: democratic and autocratic

Political Participation Escalation SequenceRational Choice and the Emotion Quotient

Democratization

Autocratization

The Polity conflict management scheme:sociational or instrumental techniques

Repression

Polar Factionalism: Window on Crisis Dynamics

Performance

State FragilityPolitical Instability

State Failure

Dual Forms: Processual and Transitional Factionalism

Macro-Systemic Resiliency and Intercessions in Political Conflict Dynamics

The Good News!

Policy RecommendationsPolicy Recommendations

Increase resiliencyIncrease resiliency ““Whole of system” approachWhole of system” approach

Accountability guaranteesAccountability guarantees Election assistance and monitorsElection assistance and monitors Engagement and mediationEngagement and mediation

Lessen reliance on instrumental strategiesLessen reliance on instrumental strategies Security Sector Reform; Professionalization of Security Sector Reform; Professionalization of

the militarythe military Acknowledge emotion quotientAcknowledge emotion quotient