Post on 27-Dec-2015
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Employment and labour mobility of youth and older age groups in the EU
Jan Behrens European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and InclusionVilnius, 12 May 2015
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The EU Economy recovers modestly reaching pre-crisis levels
Employment levels still below pre-crisis
Source: Eurostat, National AccountsNote: DG EMPL calculations for GDHI
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Source: Eurostat, LFS, data non-seasonally adjusted.
Change in employment in the EU, by age
Recent labour market trends Age group trends in employment show increases for all - still mainly the older workers
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EU
28
EA
19 SE
DE
NL
UK
DK EE
CZ
AT
LU FI LT LV FR CY
PT SI
IE BE
HU PL
SK
MT
BG
RO ES IT HR EL
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
7069
8078
77777675
7474737272
7170
6868686868686767666665
616059
53
EU Target
% o
f popula
tion 2
0-6
4
Employment rates in EU member states, 2014 q 4
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Employment rate in EU; by age, gender and education 2014 Q 4
15-6
4
20-6
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
Men
Wom
en
Low
Mediu
m
Hig
h
Total Age Gender (20-64)
Education level (25-64)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
6570
15
49
7278 80 80 80 77
66
38
126
75
64
53
74
84
0.9 0.90.5
0.9 1.0 0.90.6
0.3 0.3
0.9 1.0
2.2
0.30.1
0.8 0.90.6
0.80.4
2008Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 change 2013Q4-2014Q4Employment rate (%)
Year-on-year change (pp)
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Employment rate by age and educational attainment level in 2013, %
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
All ISCED 2011levels
Low MEDIUM HIGH
20 to 64 years
55 to 64 years
Educationalprogression
EU28
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Working age Active population Active Population, Active Population, Past em-popul. (age 20-64) Low activity scenario High activity scenario Education Effect ployment
Source: Own calculations based on Eurostat EU LFS and Eurostat Europop 2013 population projection
186
206
226
246
266
286
306
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
millions
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
% of Working Age Population (20-64 years)
EU28
Active pop, LOW scen.
Active pop, HIGH scen.
Shrinking working age population- potential employment paths
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Source: Eurostat, series on unemployment, seasonally-adjusted data
Unemployment rates - total (left axis) and youth (right axis), EU and EA
UnemploymentUnemployment in the EU slowly recedes from high levels followed for the first time by a mild reduction in long-term unemployment
Long-term unemployment in the EU
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EU citizens working in other EU Member States
Around 8 million econ. active EU citizens living in another MS in 2013 (3.3% of the labour force)
But remains below number of econ. active third-country nationals (10.6 millions or 4.3%) …and ten times lower than in the USA
Sharp increase in mobility since 2004 (enlargement), but falling since crisis
Mainly driven by job opportunities/ higher wages in host country
Shifting age patterns
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Labour mobility
• Economic benefits of freedom of movement of workers: broader economic opportunities, matching labour supply with demand, job creation, dissemination of knowledge and innovation
• Some risks: If geographically or sectorally concentrated (eg health professionals leaving)
• Mobility package (expected by end 2015): • Analyse and report objectively on mobility flows• Prevent errors, abuse and fraud• Adapt current provisions (eg coordination of social security)
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European Employment Strategy
• TFEU Title IX: Employment
• -The European Employment Strategy (EES)• - Europe 2020 and the European Semester
for economic policy coordination• • - The 2012 Employment Package
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The Open Method of Coordination
Joint Employment Report
EmploymentGuidelines
Country specific recommendations
2. European Council'sConclusions approves JER
1. Commission drafts:
3. Council of Ministers of Employment (EPSCO) issues:
4. Member States draw:
6. Commission evaluates NRPs and proposes recommendations
7. Council adopts:
National reform programmes
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Employment Guidelines 2010-2014
GL 7 Increasing labour market participation of women and men, reducing structural unemployment and promoting job quality
GL 8 Developing a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs and promoting lifelong learning
GL 9 Improving the quality and performance of education and training systems at all levels and increasing participation in tertiary or
equivalent education GL 10 Promoting social inclusion and combating
poverty
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Youth unemployment rate, EU MS, February 2015
Situation for youth (15-24 y)Unemployment declined, but remains high,considerable differences across the EU prevail
Youth unemployment rate, February 2015 and lowest and highest rates since 2008
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Key challenges for youth
Both cyclical and structural factors
• Performance of education and training
• Availability of quality work experience
• Labour market segmentation
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Youth Guarantee Council Recommendation of 22 April 2013: Member
States
ensure that all young people up to 25 receive a good-quality offer of
employment, continued education, an apprenticeship or a traineeship
within four months of becoming unemployed or leaving formal education
PES: Central YG provider
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Council Declaration on a European Alliance for Apprenticeships
Council Recommendation: Quality Framework for Traineeships
Mobility for young people
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Youth
2014 CSRs target mainly:
1.Youth Guarantee reference:BG, ES, HR, IE, IT, PL, PT, SK
2.Youth Guarantee related reformsBE, BG, CZ, ES, FR, HR, HU, IE, IT, LT, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK
3.Reach out to NEETs: BG, ES, HU, HR,
IT, LV, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK
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Older workers: challenges Labour supply- Declining working-age population calls for
higher employment rates ('productivity squeeze')
Sustainability and adequacy of pensions –
Duration of working lives, gender gaps
Eurobarometer 2011: barriers to employment
Active Ageing and creating an age friendly work environment
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Active ageing –Guiding principles EMCO/ SPC
a) Removing disincentives in tax-benefit structures and remuneration
b) Age management in work places and labour markets• -Providing access to life-long learning and career
counselling• - Promoting healthy ageing at workc) Work life balances-Broad range of policy domains. Key role of social partners
Active Ageing Index
20
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Extending working lifesDuration of working life (years, 2012) and employment rate of older workers (%, 2013)
Source: Eurostat
2014 CSRs target mainly on:
1. Keeping people longer in labour market:AT, BE, BG, CZ, DE, FI, HR, LT, LU, MT, NL, PL, SI
2. Enhancing older workers' employability:AT, BE, BG, CZ, FI, FR, LT, LU, NL, PL, RO, SI
3. Sustainability/adequacy pension system:AT, CZ, DE, HR, PT
4. Harmonisation of retirement age men and women:AT, BG, HR, RO
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Thank you ! For more details….
Please consult DG EMPL websitehttp://ec.europa.eu/social/home.jsp?langId=en
On Europe 2020
http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/making-it-happen/country-specific-recommendations/index_en.htm