Post on 13-Feb-2017
1
S H I F T I N G
G R O U N D REPORT #1
CHANGING ATTITUDES TO IMMIGRATION
IN THE LONG TERM AND DURING
ELECTION CAMPAIGNS
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for Market Research, ISO 20252:2012, and with the Ipsos MORI Terms and Conditions which can be found at http://www.ipsos-mori.com/terms. © Ipsos MORI 2015.
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Jan
-84
Se
p-8
4
May-8
5
Jan
-86
Se
p-8
6
May-8
7
Jan
-88
Se
p-8
8
May-8
9
Jan
-90
Se
p-9
0
May-9
1
Jan
-92
Se
p-9
2
May-9
3
Jan
-94
Se
p-9
4
May-9
5
Jan
-96
Se
p-9
6
May-9
7
Jan
-98
Se
p-9
8
May-9
9
Jan
-00
Se
p-0
0
May-0
1
Jan
-02
Se
p-0
2
May-0
3
Jan
-04
Se
p-0
4
May-0
5
Jan
-06
Se
p-0
6
May-0
7
Jan
-08
Se
p-0
8
May-0
9
Jan
-10
Se
p-1
0
May-1
1
Jan
-12
Se
p-1
2
May-1
3
Jan
-14
Se
p-1
4
Newsstories
Netmigration
Issuesindex
Source: LexisNexis; ONS; Ipsos MORI
News stories/Net migration (x10)
Issues Index (%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pre-war
Baby boomers
Generation X
Generation Y
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today?
RACE RELATIONS/IMMIGRATION
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
7% 8%
62%
37%
20%
28%
11%27%
Apr-11 Feb-15
Too much About the right amount Too little Don't know
Source: YouGov, April 2011; Ipsos MORI, Mar 2014, Dec
2014, Feb 2015
Generally speaking, do you think that the issue of immigration has been discussed in Britain too much, too little or about the right amount over the last few years/months?
By party (Feb 2015)
4%
7%
6%
2%
8%
41%
28%
17%
74%
37%
37%
28%
28%
21%
28%
18%
38%
48%
4%
27%
Conservatives
Labour
Lib Dems
UKIP
Total
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
R² = 0.7767
.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00
Plaid Cymru
GreensLiberal Democrats
SNP
Labour
Total
Conservatives
UKIP
On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”) MEAN
What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are
immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN
Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British
adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
R² = 0.7424
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00
Total
What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are
immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN
On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”) MEAN
Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British
adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
Pre-war
Gen X
Baby-boomers
Gen Y
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
Race relations
/ immigration
Read the Daily Mail
Owner-occupier
Vote Conservative
Read the Daily Express
Read the Sun
Work full-time
More likely to see as important
issue to Britain
Social classes AB
Read the Guardian
Satisfied with gov
1.81
1.65
1.65
1.32
1.29
1.16
0.63
Less likely to see as important
issue to Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2004
0.68
0.58
7% of variation explained by the model
Race relations
/ immigration
Vote UKIP
Read the Sun
Vote Conservative
Read Daily Mail
White ethnic group
Aged 65+
More likely to see as important issue to Britain
Read the Guardian
Degree/post-grad
Vote Labour
Scotland
Aged 18-24
Greater London
Vote Green
4.75
1.69
1.67
1.61
1.44
1.41
0.55
0.56
0.63
0.68
0.68
0.52
0.74
Less likely to see as important issue to Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014
17% of variation explained by the model
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
May2015
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
* Up until Sept 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants
2001 General
Election
2005General
Election
2010 General
Election
2015 General
Election
Border controls relaxed for “A8” EU
Countries Border controls relaxed for
Romanians and Bulgarians
Highest concern
ever recorded (56%)
1% 3% 4% 1% 5%
55%58%
63%
42%
54%
33%28%
29%
32%
29%
11% 11%5%
25%
12%
Conservatives Labour Lib Dems UKIP Total
Changed a lot Changed a little Stayed the same Don't know
Thinking back to the last general election in 2010, since then would you say your views on immigration have changed a lot, a little, or stayed the same?
18%
30%
33%
62%
36%
56%
50%
57%
34%
50%
18%
14%
8%
3%
10%
7%
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
2%
Lib Dems
Labour
Conservatives
UKIP
Total
Much more worried A little more worried
A little less worried Much less worried
Don't know
And would you say you have become more or less worried about immigration since 2010?
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574
British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
Base: those who say their views have changed a lot or a little,
930 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
Before: Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
After: Thinking about the General Election, which single issue was most important to you in helping you
decide which party to vote for?
33
34
31
31
38
41
31
48
60
41
2
2
3
3
5
7
8
9
15
25
Housing
Care for older and disabled people
Education/ schools
Taxation
Europe/ EU
Asylum and immigration
Poverty/Inequality
Benefits
Healthcare/ NHS/ hospitals
Managing the economy/ economic situation
After the election (week 7) Before the election (week 6)
Base of British adult community members 18-75 surveyed online:
Week 6 – 1,085, Week 7 – 1,042
Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut
Community
N.B. Only 10 most frequently cited
issues shown.
[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]
2001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Jan
-93
Jun
-93
No
v-9
3
Ap
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Fe
b-95
Jul-
95
De
c-9
5
May
-96
Oct
-96
Mar
-97
Au
g-9
7
Jan
-98
Jun
-98
No
v-9
8
Ap
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Fe
b-00
Jul-
00
De
c-0
0
May
-01
Oct
-01
Mar
-02
Au
g-0
2
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3
Ap
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Fe
b-05
Jul-
05
De
c-0
5
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Fe
b-10
Jul-
10
De
c-1
0
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Fe
b-15
News stories (000s) Net migration (0,000s) Issues index (%)
1997 2005 2015
New
s st
orie
s/N
et m
igra
tion
(x10
)
Issu
es I
ndex
(%
)
Denotes General Election
Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97GE
Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01
Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05
GE
GE
Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10
2010
GE
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
N/A
GE
Source: Based on LexisNexis annual data published in
the Daily Mirror April 2015,ONS; Ipsos MORI
34%
32%
18%
8%
8%
No change 1 point change 2 point change
3 point change 4 point+ change
On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”)
Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 2,698
British adults 16+ (Feb – Jun 2015)
44%
37%
20%
February
47%
36%
17%
June
Neutral
Negative
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Positive
On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0-4 negative; 5 indecisive; 6-10 positive)
Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 2,698 British
adults 16+ (Feb – Jun 2015)
5%6%
19%
22%
44%
5%
Increased a lot Increased a little Remain the same Reduced a little Reduced a lot Don't know
February 2015 June 2015
5%5%
20%
22%
45%
4%
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a
little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?
Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 2,698
British adults 16+ (Feb – Jun 2015)
67%
20%
10%
February
66%
19%
11%
June
Increased
Reduced
Remain the
same
Increased
Reduced
Remain the
same
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?
Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 2,698 British
adults 16+ (Feb – Jun 2015)
0
50
100
150
200
250
30 Mar - 5 Apr 6 Apr - 12 Apr 13 Apr - 19 Apr 20 Apr - 26 Apr 27 Apr - 3 May 4 May - 7 May
Source: Kerry Moore, Cardiff Uni (2015)
Nexis UK search of national newspaper headlines, lead paragraphs and indexing using search terms:
immigration/migration/asylum/refugee
47
36
36
22
18
15
13
13
12
11
Source: Media Analysis http://electionunspun.net/ ; Issues Index Base
982 British adults 18+, 10th – 20th April 2015
Issues Index: What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Election Unspun: media content analysis by the Media Standards Trust
1419
563
495
386
353
350
264
229
220
201
NHS
Unemployment
Education/Schools
Low pay/minimum
wages/fair pay
Defence/Foreign
Affairs/Terrorism
Housing
Poverty/inequality
Pensions/Social
Security/Benefits
Economy
Health/NHS
Education
Immigration
Welfare
Defence/
Foreign policy
EU
Housing
Crime/Justice
Environment
Issues Index April 2015Media analysis
Number of mentions, 13-19 April 2015 % think each is an issue, 10-20 April 2015
Immigration/
immigrants
Economy
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with immigration?
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of British
adults 16+ (Feb-Oct 2015)
14% 12%
67%
62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Oct-
06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Oct-
07
Ja
n-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Oct-
08
Ja
n-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Oct-
09
Ja
n-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Oct-
10
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Oct-
11
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Oct-
12
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct-
13
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Oct-
14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Ap
ril 26-2
7,
2015
Marc
h 2
9-3
0, 2
015
Marc
h 1
-2, 201
5
Febru
ary
1-2
, 2015
Jan
uary
4-5
, 2015
Novem
ber
23-2
4, 2014
Octo
ber
26-2
7, 20
14
Se
pte
mber
28-2
9, 20
14
Au
gust 31-S
epte
mber
1, 20
14
Au
gust 3-4
, 2014
July
6-7
, 2014
Jun
e 8
-9, 2014
May 1
1-1
2, 2014
Ap
ril 13-1
4,
2014
Marc
h 1
6-1
7, 2
014
Febru
ary
16
-17, 2014
Jan
uary
19-2
0, 20
14
Decem
ber
8-9
, 201
3
Novem
ber
3-4
, 201
3
Octo
ber
6-7
, 2013
Se
pte
mber
8-9
, 2013
Au
gust 11-1
2, 2013
July
14-1
5, 2013
Jun
e 1
6-1
7, 2013
Ap
ril 28-2
9,
2013
Ap
ril 14-1
5,
2013
Marc
h 1
0-1
1, 2
013
Febru
ary
10
-11, 2013
Jan
uary
13-1
4, 20
13
Decem
ber
2-3
, 201
2
Novem
ber
4-5
, 201
2
Octo
ber
7-8
, 2012
Au
gust 19-2
0, 2012
July
22-2
3, 2012
Jun
e 2
4-2
5, 2012
May 2
7-2
8, 2012
Ap
ril 29-3
0,
2012
Marc
h 1
1-1
2, 2
012
Febru
ary
12
-13, 2012
Decem
ber
18-1
9, 2011
Novem
ber
20-2
1, 2011
Octo
ber
9-1
0, 201
1
Se
pte
mber
11-1
2, 20
11
Au
gust 14-1
5, 2011
July
17-1
8, 2011
Jun
e 1
9-2
0, 2011
May 2
2-2
3, 2011
Ap
ril 10-1
1,
2011
Marc
h 1
3-1
4, 2
011
Febru
ary
13
-14, 2011
Jan
uary
16-1
7, 20
11
Decem
ber
5-6
, 201
0
Novem
ber
7-8
, 201
0
Octo
ber
10-1
1, 20
10
Se
pte
mber
12-1
3, 20
10
Au
gust 8-9
, 2010
July
11-1
2, 2010
Jun
e 6
-7, 2010
May 1
6-1
7, 2010
May 2
-3, 2010
Ap
ril 18-1
9,
2010
Ap
ril 4-5
, 20
10
Marc
h 2
1-2
2, 2
010
Marc
h 7
-8, 201
0
Febru
ary
21
-22, 2010
Con Lab Lib Dem Other
Source: YouGov
12% 8%13% 16%
1%
2%2%
3%2%
15%17%
18% 18%
3%
57%66%
55% 55%
49%
15%8% 11% 10%
46%
Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem UKIP
Completely To some extent Not very much Not at all Don't know
To what extent does [party’s] position on immigration reflect your own views ?
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574
British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
10% 7% 10% 13% 12%
4%3%
6% 3% 4%
45%61%
32%37%
50%
41%
28%
52%47%
35%
Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem UKIP
I am not very clear about …policies on immigration
I don't think…policies are strong enough to control immigration in the way I want
I think…policies on immigration are too tough
Don't know
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 3,129
British adults 16+ (Mar-Apr 2015)
On the topic of immigration, you said that the policies of [PARTY] do not completely reflect your
views. Why did you say that?
Base: all who say the party they intend to vote for does not completely
reflect their views on immigration
Ipsos MORI
3 Thomas More Square
London E1W 1YW
t: +44 (0)20 7347 3000
f: +44 (0)20 7347 3800
Bobby Duffy
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Kully Kaur-Ballagan
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
Kully.Kaur-Ballagan@ipsos.com
Glenn Gottfried
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
Glenn.Gottfried@ipsos.com