Sheppard Corridor

John Livey, Deputy City Manager

Gary Wright, Chief Planner

Expert Panel Meeting

February 24, 2012

Overview

• Criteria

• Official Plan Perspective 1985 >

• Current Official Plan & Land Use

• Corridor Development Potential

• Factors Influencing Projections

• How Development Projects Inform Ridership

• Matching City Building & Transit Initiatives

City Building Message

• Toronto has planned for a multi-centre city

• Long term vision is essential

• Official Plan principles support decision making criteria

• Difficulties in employment projections

• Stop and Go Funding for Transit infrastructure

• Matching Development and Rapid Transit challenges

City Building Evaluation Criteria

• Connectivity

• Access/Mobility

• Community Impact

• Ridership

• Sustainability

• Cost

1983 Metropolitan Official Plan

1986 Network 2011

1990 Let’s Move

1994 Metropolitan Official Plan

2002 Toronto Official Plan Urban Structure Map

Toronto Official Plan Section 2.2.2

Scarborough Centre sits at the eastern end of the Scarborough

RT line served by two stations with a third planned, and is the

focal point of 13 surface TTC routes in the eastern part of

Toronto. Improving the Centre's connectivity will be crucial to its

success, particularly improving its regional gateway function,

improving service on, and extending, the RT route and

extending the Sheppard subway east providing a high-

speed connection between the Scarborough and North

York Centres.

Toronto Official Plan Secondary Plan Areas

Toronto Official Plan Higher Order Transit Map

Toronto Official Plan Land Use Designations

Sheppard East Corridor

Forecast 2011-2061: Consumers to Victoria Park

Victoria Park Station

Dwelling units 1,600

Population 3,200

Consumers Rd Station

Dwelling units 300

Population 600

Employment 8,000

Forecast 2011-2061: Pharmacy to Birchmount

Warden North Station

Dwelling units 3,700

Population 7,400

Employment 1,500

Forecast 2011-2061: Brichmount to Midland

Kennedy Station

Dwelling units 1,600

Population 3,200

Employment 500

Agincourt Station

Dwelling units 2,800

Population 5,600

Growth Forecast

Existing

LRT

Growth

2011 - 2031

Subway

Growth *

2011 - 2061

Sheppard Corridor (404 –Agincourt)

Dwelling Units

Population

Employment

16,000

43,900

28,900

2,500

6,100

7,700

12,000

24,000

10,000

Scarborough Centre (Progress – McCowan)

Dwelling Units

Population

Employment

5,800

12,200

14,700

12,000

27,800

6,900

23,000

46,000

12,500

Consumers Business Park

Employment

19,000

5,500

8,000

* Based on N Barry Lyon’s Forecast for KPMG

Value of Commercial & Industrial Building Permits

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

$ B

illi

on

s

City of Toronto Rest of CMA

City's

Com

merc

ial ta

x r

atio

reduct

ion p

olic

y b

egin

s Source : Statistics Canada

Office Vacancy Rates - GTA

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

00q4 01q4 02q4 03q4 04q4 05q4 06q4 07q4 08q4 09q4 10q4 11q4

City of Toronto "905" Municipalities

City's

Com

merc

ial ta

x r

atio

reduct

ion p

olic

y b

egin

s

Source: Cushman & Wakefield LePage

Commercial Property Tax Rates

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Toronto

Oakville

Mississauga

Brampton

Vaughan

Markham

Pickering City's

Com

merc

ial ta

x r

atio

reduct

ion p

olic

y b

egin

s

Sheppard East Ridership Forecast (2031)

Westbound AM Peak

Existing

(1) LRT

Don Mills to Morningside1

(2)

Subway Yonge to

Scarborough Centre1

(3)

Subway Downsview

to Scarborough

Centre3

(4)

Subway Downsview

to Scarborough

Centre2&4 (enhanced

service)

(5) Subway

Downsview to

Scarborough Centre

Approaching

Consumers Business

Park

N/A

3,000

4,200

4,800

7,300

Approaching

Sheppard Station

(Yonge)

4,500

6,000

7,800

9,500

12,500

Notes:

1. TTC Service Planning/City Planning (Sheppard East LRT EA, 2008)

2. TTC Service Planning/City Planning (Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown RT - Demand Forecasting Report, 2011

3. TTC Service Planning/City Planning (Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown RT - Demand Forecasting Report 2011 (Modified February, 2012)

4. Subway operating speed increased to 36 km/hr from 30 km/hr and headways reduced to 3 minutes from 5.5 minutes

BEYOND 2031 (5)

Subway Downsview

to Scarborough

Centre

30 Plus Years of Potential

Development Growth

Sheppard East Ridership Forecast (2031) Compared to Transit Technologies

AM Peak Direction Ridership

Approaching

Consumers Business Park (Westbound)

AM Peak Direction Ridership

Approaching

Yonge Street (Westbound)

City Building Conclusions

• Long Term Perspective

– Infrastructure lasts a long time

– Dollars are scarce – but this is not the last tranche

– Private sector involvement

• Align

– Development Around Stations

– Transit and Other Infrastructure

– Economic Development Strategy

• Apply the Criteria