SFDC’s First Annual BusinessResource Summit

November 17, 2009

The Shape of the Economic Recovery

Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor

Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Global Insight

Forecast > > > > > > > >

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

Non-Mfg

Mfg

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - USTHOUSANDS

Oct 09 =- 5.5 Mil

Source: BLS Establishment Survey

000s

US Job ChangeMonth-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted

Oct

Source: BLS

Initial Unemployment Claims000s

(4-week moving average)

U.S. Unemployment Rate

%

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

Oct = 10.2 %

Housing Trends:New & Existing Home Sales

Existing(left scale)

New

(Right Scale)

(000s) (000s)

Interest Rates2001 - 2014

Forecast > > > > > >

Consumer Confidence

100

Present Situation

Expectations

Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Leading Index

2006 2007 2008 2009

The Washington Economy

%

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

GDP/GRP 2000 - 2014

Washington

U.S.

Thousands

Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area

1991 - 2008

Avg. = 45,000

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 08 – Sep 09

(000s)

Washington – 37,000

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by SectorSep 2008 – Sep 2009

Washington MSA(000s)

Total - 37,000

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Unemployment Rate

%

Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

U.S.

Washington

9.5

6.2

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate

September 2009%

US 9.5

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

6.2

Total Active Listings Per SaleOctober Each Year

LDN

PW

FFX

ARLDC

MONT

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia

All Housing Types%

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009

Economic Forecast

Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

D.C.D.C. 5.35.3 4.2 4.2 3.03.0 4.84.8 6.86.8 6.46.4 7.07.0 7.57.5

Sub. MDSub. MD 4.84.8 3.43.4 -8.5-8.5 7.27.2 8.78.7 10.610.6 13.013.0 15.115.1

No. VANo. VA 13.2 9.0 -15.5 12.9 19.4 25.4 27.6 30.7

REGION 23.323.3 16.616.6 -21.0-21.0 23.923.9 34.934.9 42.442.4 47.647.6 53.353.3

Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 45,000

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2014Washington Area and Sub-state Portions

(Annual % Change)%

DCSMMSANV

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

www.cra-gmu.org

Cardinal Bank & George Mason University 18th Annual Economic Conference

Friday, January 15, 2010