STRUCTURED DECISION

MAKING

FOR CONSERVATION

AND NATURAL RESOURCE

MANAGEMENT

A TINY INTRO BY

SUZANNE HAGELL

“IF YOU ARE A MANAGER,

ALL PATHS LEAD TO A

DECISION.”

Gregory et al. 2012

DECISIONS = CHOICES

OUTCOMES

RESULT FROM CHOICE + CHANCE EVENTS

CHOICE

IS HOW YOU CONTROL OUTCOMES

CLEAR THINKING

IS ABOUT ANALYZING DECISIONS SO YOU HAVE A

BETTER CHANCE FOR A GOOD OUTCOME

KEENEY (2004)

MAKING BETTER DECISION MAKERS

FOR DECISIONS „WORTHY OF THOUGHT‟

WE USE CLEAR THINKING TO SOLVE 4%

WE SHOULD INCREASE THIS TO 75%

FAMILIAR

APPROACHES

• PROMOTE

OBJECTIVITY

• FOCUS ON

ACTIONS

• SIMPLIFY

DECISIONS

CLEAR

THINKING

• PROMOTES

SUBJECTIVITY

• FOCUSES ON

VALUES

• STRUCTURES

DECISIONS

THINK ABOUT YOUR:

ONE-OFF DECISIONS

HIRING

ALLOCATING FUNDS

LINKED DECISIONS

SETTING HARVEST LEVELS

SCREENING PROCESSES

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

THESE DECISIONS ARE:

WORTHY OF THOUGHT

AFFECTED BY OUR VALUES

AFFECTED BY UNCERTAINTY

WHAT YOU‟LL LEARN FROM

STRUCTURED DECISION MAKING

Tradeoffs & Optimization

Decide & Take Action

Problem

Objectives

Alternatives

Consequences

Iterate

THESE STEPS

ADDRESS:

VALUES

UNCERTAINTY

TRANSPARENCY

SCIENCE

NEXT STEPS:

GET TRAINED

GET PRACTICE

Hammod et al 1999

Gregory et al 2012

WHERE TO START

http://nctc.fws.gov/courses/SDM/courses/overview.html