Scott KeeterPew Research CenterBrookings West / UNLVOctober 8, 2010

Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Intermountain West

Topics for Exploration

• Partisan and ideological tilt of Millennials• Fundamental social and religious values• Attitudes about political issues• Political engagement• Values and opinions on current issues

Evidence from Many Sources

• Pew Research Center surveys since 2000• Pew Forum’s Religious Landscape Survey 2007• US Census surveys on voter turnout• National Election Pool exit polls• Brookings / UNLV 2010 survey

Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 in the Intermountain West

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%51%

41%

30%

45%

Republican/lean Democrat/leanPew Research Center surveys

Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29 in the Intermountain West

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%51%

41%

30%

45%

Republican/lean Democrat/leanPew Research Center surveys

Republican Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%51%

41%

38%

33%

Intermountain West ElsewherePew Research Center surveys

Republican Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%51%

41%

38%

33%

Intermountain West Elsewhere

Ages 30+

Pew Research Center surveys

Democratic Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

30%

45%

44%

54%

Intermountain West ElsewherePew Research Center surveys

Democratic Party Affiliation and Leaning for Ages 18-29

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

30%

45%

44%

54%

Intermountain West Elsewhere

Ages 30+

Pew Research Center surveys

Self-Identified Ideology:Conservative

18-29 30+ Total

27

45 4128

41 38

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Self-Identified Ideology:Liberal

18-29 30+ Total

2617 19

2818 20

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Obama Vote

18-29 30+ Total

51 47 50

67

50 54

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2008 NEP exit poll

2010 Obama Approval

18-29 30+ Total

42 37 38

5746 48

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2010 Pew Research Center surveys

RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, COMMITMENT AND MORAL VALUES

Pew Research Center surveys

Religious Affiliation: Atheist, Agnostic, Nothing in Particular

18-29 30+ Total

32

18 2126

14 16

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Religious Affiliation: White Evangelical Protestant

18-29 30+ Total

815 1414

23 21

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Attendance at Religious Services: Weekly or More Often

18-29 30+ Total

2838 36

3040 38

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

Government Should Do More to Protect Morality in Society

18-29 30+ Total

4537 38

4539 40

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Homosexuality Should Be Accepted by Society

18-29 30+ Total

62

49 5263

47 50

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Abortion Should Be Legal in All or Most Cases

18-29 30+ Total

47 50 4949 52 51

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

OTHER ISSUES AND VALUESPew Research Center surveys

Government Should Do More to Help Needy Americans

18-29 30+ Total

6856 58

6861 62

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Stricter Environmental Laws and Regulations are Worth the Cost

18-29 30+ Total

6558 5963 60 61

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

The Best Way to Ensure Peace is Through Military Strength

18-29 30+ Total

2433 31

24 29 28

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

Rather Have a Smaller Government Providing Fewer Services

18-29 30+ Total

29

5347

26

46 42

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

POLITICAL ENGAGEMENTPew Research Center & US Census surveys

Follow What’s Going on in Government and Public Affairs Most of the Time

18-29 30+ Total

31

5751

33

56 52

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2007 Pew Forum Religious Landscape Survey

2008 Voter Turnout by State

National Arizona Colorado New Mexico

Nevada Utah

51 4752

47 49

37

67 6473

67 63 60

Ages 18-29 Ages 30+

US Census surveys compiled by CIRCLE

Registered to Vote

18-29 30+ Total

51

7872

59

81 76

Intermountain West Elsewhere

2009-2010 surveys by Pew Research Center

CURRENT ISSUES AND VALUESResults from the August 2010 UNLV/Brookings West Survey

Things in the Country are Going in the Right Direction

Series1

2432

21 22 23 21

Total 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Arizona’s Immigration Law “Goes Too Far”

Series1

3649

3729

36

25

Total 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Same-Sex Marriage Should be Recognized by the Law as Valid

Series1

43

5748

40 41

25

Total 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Political Values on Which Millennials Are Similar to Others

Total Ages 18-29

2nd Amendments rights are threatened 64 65Government programs for the poor undermine individual responsibility

60 62

Gone too far mixing religion & politics 58 59

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Political Values on Which Millennials Are Slightly More Liberal

Total Ages 18-29

We must do whatever is necessary to protect against terrorism, even if it means restricting civil liberties

50 45

Minorities still lack the same opportunities as whites

47 52

If financially able, women should stay home and take care of household

44 38

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Political Values on Which Millennials Are Significantly More Liberal

Total Ages 18-29

Cultural institutions should receive government support

61 74

Reduce gap between rich and poor even with higher taxes for wealthy

51 62

Labor unions play a positive role in our economy

50 64

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Millennials Favor More Federal Government Involvement

Total Ages 18-29

Environmental protection and cleanup 55 64Guaranteeing quality public education 58 70Promoting renewable energy 59 67Making affordable health care available to everyone

49 65

Creating jobs and economic growth 66 74Promoting the role of faith in public life

22 29

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

…But Not on Every Issue

Total Ages 18-29

Cracking down on crime and drugs 59 62Stopping the flow of illegal immigrants 74 64Dealing with millions of illegal immigrants already here

70 60

Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Vote for House of Representatives

4437

524647

5442

48

Republican Democrat

Intermountain West

All adults 18-29 All adults 18-29

Sept. 2010 survey by Pew Research Center & Aug. 2010 survey by Gerstein Agne

Total for US

Conclusions

• Millennial voters in the intermountain west remain more Republican than their counterparts elsewhere

• But they are significantly more liberal than older generations in the region

• Their political attitudes and values are not different from their counterparts elsewhere

• They appear to be slightly less politically engaged than Millennials elsewhere

Scott KeeterPew Research CenterBrookings West / UNLVOctober 8, 2010

Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Intermountain West