Post on 17-Dec-2015
Science questions
• How will source-receptor relations change due to expected changes in emissions?
• How should future emission scenarios be constructed?
Global emissions of NOx
[million tons]
0.0
40.0
80.0
120.0
160.0
200.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Europe North AmericaAsia + Oceania Latin AmericaAfrica + Middle East Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR)SRES A2 - World Total SRES B2 - World Total
Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Emission standards for gasoline vehiclesCurrent legislation
20102000
Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Projections of global SO2, NOx, BC and OC emissionsfrom anthropogenic sources, relative to 2000
Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Businessas usual,
with recentair quality
legislations
SO2 NOx BC OC
Maximum technically feasible reductions
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1990 2000 2010 2020 20300%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Currently ongoing activities
• China (Hao Jiming)
• EDGAR (John van Ardenne)
• GEIA (Claire Granier)
• EMEP (Kristin Rypdal)
Emission = Activity level x Emission Factor
Type of Sources and Pollutants, for a base year
Coal combustion: SO2, NOx, CO, Hg, PM
Biomass burning: black carbon
Emissions from transportation sector: VOC, NO, PM
Industrial processes: Hg from nonferrous metal smelting and cement production
Other sources of VOCs
a guideline for developing emission inventory
Emissions InventoriesEmissions Inventories
8john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)
Emission sources:- Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion- Industrial processes- Agriculture- Waste- Biomass burning
Emission sources:- Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion- Industrial processes- Agriculture- Waste- Biomass burning
Compounds:- CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases- NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3
- BC/OC
Compounds:- CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases- NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3
- BC/OC
1890 1990 1995 2000 20??
EDGAR/HYDE
EDGAR v2EDGAR v3
EDGAR FTEDGAR v4
EDGAR + IIASAEDGAR + POLES
vd WerfHoelzemann
Bond
QAUNTIFYEyring
GEIA
9
Issues in emission inventories
john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Activity data: biofuel use / biomass burning / statistics non-OECD
Emission factors: emission abatement
Grid maps (cm2 technical possible; data is often missing)
Temporal resolution (emission by month/week/day/hour)
Emission height (in which model layer is emitted?)
Compound speciation (NMVOC, aerosol)
Verification studies
10
Emission inventories and this task force
john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
1. Make use of existing work.Do not define a new inventory but provide means for existing emissions inventories (global/regional/country/city) to exchange knowledge and improve insight.
2. Verification of existing inventories- Global emissions budget: (inverse studies/satellite data)- Spatial/temporal resolution (measurement campaigns/regional modeling)- Emission factors/speciation (local measurements)
3. Science vs accountancy- Scientific capacity building in emission inventory development (exchange/training)- Fund accountancy work such as data mining on activity data and grid map construction for which often no scientific credits can be gained.
-1-3: How to deal with national (UNFCCC/EMEP-CORINAIR) emission inventories do we aim at independent estimates?
Emission inventories: a few issues
Claire GRANIER
Service d’Aeronomie / IPSL, Paris, France
Also at: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germanyand CIRES/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Development of international databases
Within: the GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity) project of IGBP Co-chairs: A. Guenther (NCAR, Boulder, USA) and C. Granier the ACCENT (Atmospheric Composition Change) European Network
Version 2 of the GEIA database developed as part of ACCENThttp://www.accent-network.org
First (global) inventories of GEIA-2 will be released ~ June, 15 POET (1990-2000) RETRO (1960-2000)
Tools will be soon available: visualization comparisons regridding formats
A few issues
• Consistency between inventories: gaseous/aerosols and VOCs speciation spatial: local, regional and global
More links between communities: national/international and international projects (organize an international workshop?)
• Natural emissions from static inventories to interactive
parameterizations/models to take into account impact of meteorology, climate change and land-use change. Database of ancillary data under development withinGEIA and ACCENT (more participants welcome).
• Verification of emissions intercomparisons of inventories and input data (emission factors, activity data, fire counts/area burned, etc.) Inverse modeling : is currently limited to a few species (CO, NO2) at the global scale. Has started to be used for
local/regional emissions. Methods still under development, an
intercomparison could be organized.