Brian Schnick

MS-GISc Candidate

Denver University

A GIS Model to Predict Feral Pig (Sus scrofa)

Habitat on Vandenberg Air Force Base,

California

Pigs cause damage; need to predict habitat

Pigs are difficult to observeNocturnalBed in dense brush/coverVAFB encompasses ~400 sq km

GIS modeling proven for raptors, mammals, pests

Why a GIS model?

30 CESGeobase ManagerRange ManagerArcheologistsFacility Managers

30 SFSGame Conservation Officers

30 FSSGolf Course Management

Proposed Audience

Pigs inhabit 56/58 CA counties

Rooting!Disturbs ground 6-18” deepLandscapingArcheology sitesEndangered species

No current catalog of pig incidents/locations

Needs Assessment

Predictive modelPreferred environmental factors

Provide data to:CES, SFS, FSS

Animal Control/Damage PreventionBarriers?Prioritized site study?Population control?

Goal of Application

ESRI GIS software in-place

ArcView/ArcInfo licensesSpatial Analyst

Raster CalculatorExtract Values to PointsDistance Straight LineCommand Line: ReclassByASCIIFile_sa

ArcIMS for distribution?

Software Requirements

Personal Desktop

SensorsTrimble GeoXH handheld GPS unit Leaf River digital game cameraRaven UAVNight vision devicesPersonal spotlight

Hardware Requirements

Secondary Data: National Map Seamless Server

Primary Data: TransectsGame CamUAV

Datasets and Sources

BTS Roads NED 1/9 arc sec NAIP (3 band) UTM Zone 10

NLCD 2001 Land Cover (30m)National Atlas Vegetation Growth – Peak:2005

National Atlas Vegetation Growth – Average:2005

National Atlas Roads National Atlas Streams National Atlas Land Cover Characteristics (AVHRR 1km)

Study AreaMulti-Stage Area Sampling

3 per area

NS / EW distribution

SW corner origin

www.random.org

Transect Selection

1

5

9

1 5 9

2 areas closed for EOD operations

3 contained admin/brush/terrain problems

Rejected without replacementUAV overcomes!

Barriers

Transects and GPS3 x 2 day sessions54 presence, 47 absence points

collectedLots of ticks and poison oak

Game Camera2 x week sessions120 photos of bushes, 1 photo of a

deer collected = 2 absence points

Data Collection

Raven UAV1 session of 2 hours @ duskIR sensor (low resolution)14 presence points collected

Data Collection, continued

UAV IR Video Clip

YouTube

Food/water/shelter = Water/Vegetation/Roads

Factor weights

Application Development

Environmental factor Weight

Distance to water 60%

Vegetation 30%

Distance to roads 10%

((([Dist2SmWaRas2] * -0.000114) + 1) * 6) + (([Dist2RoadRas] * 33.33) * 4)+ ([nlcd_reclass] * 0.33)

Vegetation weights

Application Development, cont.

Veg type Weight

Shrubland, herbaceous grassland, woody wetland, herbaceous wetland emergent

3

Recreational grasses urban, low intensity residential, evergreen forest, mixed forestland

2

Open water, high intensity residential, commercial-industrial-roads, transitional barren

1

Dis

trib

uti

on M

odel

The Data

Dist to Roads (m)

Dist to Water (m)

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

PresenceAbsence

Low in

tens

ity re

siden

tial

Everg

reen

fore

st

Urban

, rec

reat

iona

l gra

sses

Emer

gent

, her

bace

ous w

etla

nd

Shrub

land

Grass

es, h

erba

ceou

s0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

PresenceAbsence

Logistic regression: R2=.04

Process Validation

Logistic regression: R2=.31

Simulated data

Environment factors correlate to presence

Prediction correlates to presence: R2=.22

Moderate success creating GIS model for feral pig distribution!

Primary issue: data collection

Future research/model refinement

Disbursed data collectionRadio collars!Seasonal patterns

Discussion

Tim BeltonDarryl York, Paul Vincent, Ken LucasChris Ryan, Robert PetersonEd Panas, Wayne MosesTSgt Vail, SSgt Johnson, SSgt Fay

Acknowledgements