Satellite Image/Loop of Sandy

Slide showing surface analysis of Sandy throughout lifetime

Slide with loop of Sandy (with track?)

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Seven day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Six day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Five day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Four day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Three day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Two day forecast

Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis One day forecast

Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Saturday, October 27, 2012

Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Sunday, October 28, 2012

Wave Watch III model output valid 8PM Mon Oct 3036 hour Wave height forecast (ft)

Surge Probabilities from morning of Oct 28

ESTOFS Surge Guidance

Probability of 48 hour snowfall > 12 inchesIssued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012

Valid 8PM, Sunday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30

3 day Snow Accumulation (inches)Issued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012

Valid 8PM Saturday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30

Extratropical Surge Height (x 0.1feet)ESTOFS – 114 hour forecast valid 8AM Tuesday October 30

ASCAT winds – 10:19 AM Monday October 29

Bright red – Hurricane Force (>63 kts)Dark Brown – Storm Force – (48-56 kts)

ESTOFS Surge Guidance from 2AM Sunday Oct 28

MSLP and 10 m winds – 30 hour GFS forecast valid 8AM October 30

Day 7 ForecastValid 8AM Monday Oct 29

Verifying AnalysisValid 8AM Monday Oct 29

OPC 96 hour forecast from Thursday Oct 25 valid Monday Oct 29

OPC 96 hour forecast from Friday Oct 26 valid Tuesday Oct 30

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0151 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OF FAR WRN MD...WV...AND PARTS OF WRN VA

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 291851Z - 300045Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT.

DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ONGOING AS OF MID AFTERNOON OWING TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME -- I.E. 20-30 KT OF NWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY THE CHARLESTON WV VWP WITHIN THE 0.5-1-KM LAYER. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HURRICANE SANDY AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL YIELD A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC COOLING WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER...WITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1 IN/HR FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT AFTER 21Z. HIGHER RATES TO 2 IN/HR /LOCALLY HIGHER/ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY WAA AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE FRINGES OF THE WARM CORE ACCOMPANYING BECOMING-POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY...AND NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING TAKES PLACE. NAM/RAPID-REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY 100-MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS...ATOP -2C TO -4C ISOTHERMAL LAYERS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SUPPORTING THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES.

AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF SANDY...0-1-KM MEAN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 45-50 KT AFTER 21Z. AS SUCH...SUSTAINED NWLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 35-40 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...STRONGEST OVER RIDGE TOPS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1/4 MILE WITH BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..COHEN.. 10/29/2012

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2091

October 29, 2012

12Z Monday, Oct 29, 2012 18Z Monday, Oct 29, 2012

72 hour Precipitation Forecast: 8AM Saturday Oct 27 – 8AM Tuesday Oct 30Issued 6AM, Sat Oct 27, 2012