Post on 22-May-2020
SALMON
0
THE SALMON PANEL
DENNIS GUHLKE GUNNAR KNAPP
MARCY BEMILLER ROGER BING JOHN GARNER TERJE MARTINUSSEN
KEY TRENDS IN GLOBALSALMON MARKETS
• Steep growth in farmed Atlantic supply, driven by Chile and Norway
• Steep decline in farmed Atlantic prices Spring 2011-Summer 2012; prices now stabilizing/rebounding
• Lower wild salmon harvests in 2012• Wild salmon prices generally pulled downwards by
farmed prices
2
ESTIMATED WORLD SALMON SUPPLY
3
Sources: Farmed salmon: 1980-2010: FAO Fishstat J database; 2011-2012: Kontali AnalyseWild salmon: 1980-2009: FAO Fishstat J database; 2010-2011: Kontali Analyse
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,00019
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
12
MET
RIC
TO
NS
Estimated Global Salmon Supply
Wild (All SpeciesCombined)
Wild Coho &ChinookWild Sockeye
Wild Chum
Wild Pink
Farmed Coho &ChinookFarmed Atlantic
WORLD FARMED ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY
4
Source: Kontali Analyse
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MT
World Supply of Farmed Atlantic SalmonChile Norway All Other Countries
WORLD FARMED ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY
5
Source: Kontali Analyse
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MT
World Supply of Farmed Atlantic SalmonChile Norway All Other Countries
US MONTHLY SALMON IMPORTS
6
Source: National Marine Fisheries Service
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Ja
n-00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
MT
US Monthly Salmon Imports, by Product
Atlantic fresh fillets Atlantic frozen fillets Atlantic fresh (non-fillet)Nonspecified frozen fillets All other salmon products
AVERAGE US IMPORT PRICES
7
Source: National Marine Fisheries Service
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
$/lb
Average US Import Prices
ChileanFrozenAtlanticFillets
ChileanFreshAtlanticFillets
CanadianFreshFarmedAtlantic
ATLANTIC SALMON PRICE TRENDS
8
Sources: Urner Barry; Statistics Norway
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
$/lb
Price Trends for Selected Atlantic Salmon ProductsFOB Miami Fillet ($/lb) Norway average fresh export price ($/lb)Fob Seattle (Head-On) ($/lb)
Prices have trended
upwards since September; (relatively more in
Europe than in the US)
ESTIMATED WORLD SALMON SUPPLY
9
Sources: Farmed salmon: 1980-2010: FAO Fishstat J database; 2011-2012: Kontali AnalyseWild salmon: 1980-2009: FAO Fishstat J database; 2010-2011: Kontali Analyse
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,00019
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
12
MET
RIC
TO
NS
Estimated Global Salmon Supply
Farmed Atlantic
Farmed Coho &Chinook
Wild (All SpeciesCombined)
Wild Coho &Chinook
Wild Sockeye
Wild Chum
Wild Pink
ALASKA SALMON HARVESTS
10
Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,00019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MT
Alaska Wild Salmon HarvestsSockeye Pink Chum Coho Chinook
SALMON PANEL DISCUSSION TOPICS
1. Atlantic salmon global supply growth and market response2. Chilean farmed salmon outlook3. Asian market developments and implications4. Wild Alaska salmon market developments5. US salmon market issues
11
1. ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY GROWTH AND MARKET RESPONSE
• Global market• Dramatic long-term increases in both supply and demand• Markets diversifying• Price responsive
12
WORLD FARMED ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY
13
Source: Kontali Analyse
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MT
World Supply of Farmed Atlantic SalmonChile Norway All Other Countries
MAIN ATLANTIC SALMON CONSUMERSESTIMATES FOR 1998 AND 2011
14
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, June 2012, as used in a presentation by Aquachile
Thousand tons WFE
As farmed Atlantic salmon production has grown, end markets have diversified dramatically
Russia up from 12 to 147South America up from 8 to 45
NORWEGIAN ATLANTIC SALMON EXPORTS
15
Source: Kontali Analyse
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2011 2012
MET
RIC
TO
NS
WFE
Norwegian Atlantic Salmon Exports, 2011 & 2012
OtherOther Far EastJapanUSARussiaOther EuropeOther EUPolandDenmarkFrance
CHILEAN ATLANTIC SALMON EXPORTS
16
Source: Kontali Analyse
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Total 2011 Total 2012
MET
RIC
TO
NS
WFE
Chilean Atlantic Salmon Exports, January-October 2011 & 2012
OtherEUFar EastBrazilUSA
FRESH FILLET IMPORTS & PRICES
17
Source: National Marine Fisheries Service, Urner Barry. Note: Last month is Sept 2012.
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
PR
ICE
($/lb
)
MT
(100
0)
US Fresh Atlantic Fillets Monthly Imports & Prices
Total fresh filletimports
Urner-Barry price,Fresh ChileanAtlantic fillets, C-Trim, FOB Miami,3-4 lbs
Average importprice, Chileanfresh fillets
AS US IMPORTS OF CHILEAN FILLETS FELL AND PRICES ROSE, NORWAY FILLED MUCH OF THE
SHORTFALL
18
Source: National Marine Fisheries Service
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Jan- 00 Jan- 01 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- 06 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12
MET
RIC
TO
NS
US Monthly Fresh Atlantic Salmon Fillet Imports, by Product
All Other
Faroe Islands
Norway
Chile
ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY GROWTH AND MARKET RESPONSE: QUESTIONS . . .
• How have traditional markets responded to lower prices and higher supply?- New product forms? New distribution channels?
• How did European and American retailers react to lower market pricing?- Lower costs passed on to consumers?- Impacts on consumption?
• Why are prices rising faster in Europe than in the US?• How did higher supply and lower prices impact new market
development?• How are producers differentiating themselves in a difficult
environment?
19
2. CHILEAN FARMED SALMON OUTLOOK
• Short-term projections for continued growth?• But prices below production costs?• Market diversification significant and critical
20
CHILEAN ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY
21
Source: Kontali Analyse
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MT
WFE
Chilean Market Supply of Farmed Atlantic Salmon
CHILEAN ATLANTIC FILLET PRICES
22
Source: Kontali Analyse, Urner Barry
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
$/lb
Chilean Atlantic Fillet Average FOB Export Prices
FOB MiamiPrice, C-Trimfillets, 2-3 lbs
FOB saverageexport price,fresh salmonfillets
FOB averageexport price,frozen salmonfillets
23
Source: Presentation at 2011 Global Seafood Marketing Conference
ESTIMATED COST RANGE FOR CHILEAN PRODUCTION
CHILEAN ATLANTIC SALMON EXPORTS
24
Source: Kontali Analyse, reporting Chilean trade data
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Total2011
Total2012
Fresh2011
Fresh2012
Freshfillets2011
Freshfillets2012
Frozen2011
Frozen2012
FrozenFillets2011
FrozenFillets2012
MET
RIC
TO
NS
WFE
Chilean Atlantic Salmon Exports, January-October 2011 & 2012
Other
EU
Far East
Brazil
USA
CHILEAN FARMED SALMON OUTLOOK: QUESTIONS . . .
• What will happen with Chilean Atlantic supply in 2013 and beyond?
• Will financial challenges disrupt Chilean supply or otherwise impact US Atlantic fillet imports from Chile?
• Have new regulations fixed the problems that caused the ISA crisis?
• Are the regulatory changes done or will more follow?• Looking ahead, how will the number of Chilean salmon
producers change?
25
3. ASIAN MARKET DEVELOMENTS AND IMPLICATIONS
• Japan a mirror image of other salmon markets- Very high per capita consumption- Demand not growing, may be falling- Exacerbates sensitivity to over-supply
• Very rapid growth in Chinese reprocessing now slowing?
• Dramatic potential in domestic Chinese market?
26
JAPANESE FROZEN SALMON IMPORTS
27
Source: Japanese import data. Coho and trout import data not available for 2012; 2012 data estimated from Chilean monthly exports.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
MET
RIC
TO
NS
Japanese Monthly Imports of Frozen Coho, Trout and Sockeye
SockeyeTroutCoho
JAPANESE WHOLESALE PRICES
28
Source: FIS Japanese frozen market prices
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Tokyo Wholesale Prices for Imported Frozen Salmon(converted to $/lb)
Alaska sockeye Chilean coho Chilean trout
EXCHANGE RATES
29
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
$1.15
$1.20
$1.25
$1.30
$1.35
$1.40
$1.45
$1.50
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Exchange Rates for the Japanese Yen and the Euro
Value of100 Japaneseyenin dollars
Value of1 Euroin dollars
US EXPORTS TO CHINA
30
Source: National Marine Fisheries Service. Note: Data are for May-April “salmon year.”
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
met
ric to
nsUnited States Exports of Frozen Salmon to China
Frozensockeye
Frozen chum
Frozen Pink
ASIAN MARKET DEVELOMENTS AND IMPLICATIONS: QUESTIONS . . .
• How is the Japanese salmon market changing, and how does it affect the US market?
• How is the Chinese salmon market changing and what does the future hold? - Reprocessing- Domestic consumption
31
4. WILD ALASKA SALMON MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
• Five different species!• Wide fluctuations in harvests from year-to-year• 2013 harvests likely lower; difficult/impossible to predict accurately• Multiple product forms
- Frozen H&G & fillets, Fresh, Canned, Roe• Product shares and markets vary widely by species
- Annual shifts in response to market conditions• Important recent trends:
- Declining exports to Japan- Growing production for US and EU markets- Growing frozen exports to China for reprocessing
• 2012 prices down for frozen & fresh, up for canned and roe
32
ALASKA SALMON HARVESTS
33
Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,00019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MT
Alaska Wild Salmon HarvestsSockeye Pink Chum Coho Chinook
ALASKA SOCKEYE SALMON PRODUCTION
34
Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Operator Annual Reports
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
THO
US
AN
DS
OF
PO
UN
DS
Alaska Sockeye Salmon Production, by ProductFrozen Fresh Canned Other
ALASKA PINK SALMON PRODUCTION
35
Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Operator Annual Reports
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
THO
USA
ND
S O
F PO
UN
DS
Alaska Pink Salmon Production, by Product
OtherCannedFreshFrozen
ALASKA CHUM SALMON PRODUCTION
36
Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Operator Annual Reports
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
THO
US
AN
DS
OF
PO
UN
DS
Alaska Chum Salmon Production, by Product
Frozen Fresh Canned Other
FROZEN SOCKEYE END MARKETS
37
Note: Estimates are for May-April “salmon year.” USA end market volume estimated by subtracting exports from reported Alaska production, and should be considered only approximate. Sources: Alaska Department of Fish & Game Commercial Operator Annual Report data; NMFS Fisheries Trade Data.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MT
Estimated End Markets: Alaska Frozen Sockeye
USA Japan EU Canada China Other countries
FROZEN PINK END MARKETS
38
Note: Estimates are for May-April “salmon year.” USA end market volume estimated by subtracting exports from reported Alaska production, and should be considered only approximate. Sources: Alaska Department of Fish & Game Commercial Operator Annual Report data; NMFS Fisheries Trade Data.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MT
Estimated End Markets: Alaska Frozen Pink
USA China Thailand Other countries
FROZEN CHUM END MARKETS
39
Note: Estimates are for May-April “salmon year.” USA end market volume estimated by subtracting exports from reported Alaska production, and should be considered only approximate. Sources: Alaska Department of Fish & Game Commercial Operator Annual Report data; NMFS Fisheries Trade Data.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MT
Estimated End Markets: Alaska Frozen ChumUSA China EU Other countries
ALASKA FROZEN H&G PRICES
40
Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep
Alaska Wild Salmon Average First Wholesale Prices: Frozen H&GSockeye Coho Pink Chum
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ALASKA FROZEN FILLET PRICES
41
Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep
Alaska Wild Salmon Average First Wholesale Prices: Frozen Fillets
Sockeye Coho Chum
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
WILD ALASKA SALMON MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: QUESTIONS . . .
• How will Alaska harvests change in 2013—and how will the changes affect markets?
• What’s going on with MSC certification of Alaska salmon—and how will it affect Alaska’s domestic and international markets?
• Why weren’t 2012 wild sockeye prices affected more by lower Atlantic salmon pricing?
• How do shifts in product forms affect wild salmon pricing and markets?
42
5. US SALMON MARKET ISSUES
• Dominated by farmed Atlantic salmon- Wild salmon < 1/3 of fresh & frozen supply
• Consumption declined after 2007, only now returning to levels of mid-2000s
43
US MONTHLY SALMON IMPORTS
44
Source: National Marine Fisheries Service
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Ja
n-00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
MT
US Monthly Salmon Imports, by Product
Atlantic fresh fillets Atlantic frozen fillets Atlantic fresh (non-fillet)Nonspecified frozen fillets All other salmon products
APPROXIMATE US SALMON SUPPLY
45
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MT
Approximate US Fresh & Frozen Salmon Supply(Product Weight)
Imports-Farmed Atlantic fresh fillets Imports-Farmed Atlantic frozen filletsImports-Farmed Atlantic fresh non-fillet Imports-Unspecified frozen filletsImports-All other Alaska-FreshAlaska-Other frozen Alaska-Frozen sockeye
Note: Alaska supply estimated by subtracting US exports from reported Alaska production. Should be considered approximate estimates only. Note: Does not include US farmed salmon production.
US SALMON MARKET ISSUES: QUESTIONS . . .
• Why aren’t Americans consuming more salmon? Why isn’t consumption growing as fast as in Europe?
• Does “product of USA” matter to US consumers?• When will US consumers see genetically modified
salmon? How will it affect farmed and wild markets?
46