©FutureTimeline.net

#WrongPlace

©FutureTimeline.net

#ButNotThatWrong

©FutureTimeline.net

ESS 490 Frances Lin Prof. Kate Huntington

ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN F L O O D - D R I V E N I N C I S I O N O F S W E T T C R E E K , U TA H

©FunCage.com

ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN F L O O D - D R I V E N I N C I S I O N O F S W E T T C R E E K , U TA H S W E T T

ESS 490 Frances Lin Prof. Kate Huntington

©FunCage.com

• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion

than… flash floods with higher peak discharges • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,

temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on

landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change

in incision pattern and rate

C A S E S T U D Y S W E T T C R E E K , H E N RY M O U N TA I N S , U TA H

Case

#HenryMtns

©GoogleEarth

#HenryMtns

©GoogleEarth

#HenryMtns

#MtnsHillers

©GoogleEarth

#DrainageArea

#MtnsHillers

#HenryMtns

©GoogleEarth

©GoogleEarth

©GoogleEarth

©GoogleEarth

©GoogleEarth

• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion

than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010) • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,

temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on

landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change

in incision pattern and rate

M O T I VAT I O N

• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion

than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010) • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,

temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on

landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change

in incision pattern and rate

M O T I VAT I O N

• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion

than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010) • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,

temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on

landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change

in incision pattern and rate

M O T I VAT I O N

• site of a previous study done by Johnson et al. (2010) • Sweet Creek of.. drains into… • It’s been proposed that… long-term snowmelt floods cause more erosion

than… flash floods with higher peak discharges (Johnson et al., 2010) • Since the relative contribution of… sensitive to factors such as seasonality,

temperature, precipitation… • Raise the question… what effects… anthropogenic climate change on

landscape evolution in this region? • This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs to estimate change

in incision pattern and rate

M O T I VAT I O N

• This project will… warm climate derived hydrographs … estimate changes in incision pattern and rate

!

MODERN !

climate

!

WARM

!

MODERN!

WARM!

using RegCM

!

climate

!

using RegCM!extracted hydrograph

!

MODERN!

WARM!

climate

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

R e g C M

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

R e g i o n a l C l i m a t e M o d e l

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

R e g i o n a l C l i m a t e M o d e l _

©CLM Community

R e g C M

• origniated from weather prediction

(IPCC, 2001)

©CLM Community

R e g C M

• origniated from weather prediction • now used in a wide range of

climate application • paleoclimate • anthropogenic climate change

(IPCC, 2001)

©CLM Community

R e g C M

• origniated from weather prediction • now used in a wide range of

climate application • paleoclimate • anthropogenic climate change

• data sets include • climatic state • regional physiographic features

(IPCC, 2001)

©CLM Community

R e g C M

• origniated from weather prediction • now used in a wide range of

climate application • paleoclimate • anthropogenic climate change

• data sets include • climatic state • regional physiographic features

• capable of describing climate*** feedback mechanisms

(IPCC, 2001)

©CLM Community

R e g C M

• origniated from weather prediction • now used in a wide range of

climate application • paleoclimate • anthropogenic climate change

• data sets include • climatic state • regional physiographic features

• capable of describing climate*** feedback mechanisms

• has begun to couple various other models

(IPCC, 2001)

©CLM Community

R e g C M

lithosphere hydrosphere biosphere atmosphere

!

MODERN

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

S I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input)

S I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

heat flux

precipitation

ice albedo

temperature

©FrontierScientists @NASA

temperature precipitation

heat flux ice albedo

©FrontierScientists @NASAS I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

temperature precipitation

heat flux ice albedo

©FrontierScientists @NASAS I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

??temperature precipitation

heat flux ice albedo

©FrontierScientists @NASAS I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

??temperature precipitation

heat flux ice albedo

S I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

For complete list of RegCM parameters, please visit NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Caltech www.jpl.nasa.gov

©FrontierScientists @NASA

C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

S I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

•Hydrographs (output) • graph • discharge vs. time • next step…

©USGS

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

S I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

•Hydrographs (output) • graph • discharge vs. time • next step…

SAMPLE

©USGS

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

S I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

•Hydrographs (output) • graph • discharge vs. time • next step…

J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )

C l i m a t e R e - a n a l y s i s D a t a

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O 2 C o n c e n t r a t i o n ( i n p u t )

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

S I M U L AT I O N S

• prescribe CO2 (input) • RegCM

•Hydrographs (output) • graph • discharge vs. time C l i m a t e R e - a n a l y s i s D a t a

J o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )

Validate the model

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )Validated

!

MODERN!

WARM

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

Prescribe [CO2]

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

I P C C S P E C I A L R E P O RT

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chage

• don’t need to know… mean • pay attention… trends

Prescribe [CO2]

(IPCC, 2000)

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

Prescribe [CO2]

I P C C S P E C I A L R E P O RT

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chage

• omit the details • pay attention… trends

(IPCC, 2000)

Glo

bal

Te

mp

era

ture

(°C

)

Year

E m i s s i o n S c e n a r i o s

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

Prescribe [CO2]

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

Prescribe [CO2]..

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

Results

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

ResultsJ o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

ResultsJ o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )incision pattern

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

ResultsJ o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )incision pattern & rate

M E T H O D & S I M U L AT I O N S

C O

M o d e r n C l i m a t e

R e g C M

H y d r o g r a p h ( o u t p u t )

Wa r m C l i m a t e • A 1 • A 2 • B 1 • B 2

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

ResultsJ o h n s o n e t a l . ( 2 0 1 0 )incision pattern & rate

climate

Initial stage of warming, as ice melts, snowmelt flood events dominate the river discharge pattern and cause rapid incision. !

As warming proceeds and precipitation increases, flash flood events become dominant and incision rate slows.

E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .

E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .

Initial stage of warming, as ice melts, snowmelt flood events dominate the river discharge pattern and cause rapid incision. !

As warming proceeds and precipitation increases, flash flood events become dominant and incision rate slows.

Initial stage of warming, as ice melts, snowmelt flood events dominate the river discharge pattern and cause rapid incision. !

As warming proceeds and precipitation increases, flash flood events become dominant and incision rate slows.

E X P E C T E D R E S U LT S W I L L B E T E S T E D . .

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on incision of Swett Creek

#GlobalWarming

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification#Extinction

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification#Extinction

#FoodSecurity

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification#Extinction

#FoodSecurity

#HabitatInundation

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification#Extinction

#FoodSecurity

#HabitatInundation

#Deglaciation

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification#Extinction

#FoodSecurity

#HabitatInundation

#EmissionsPolicy

#Deglaciation

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification#Extinction

#FoodSecurity

#HabitatInundation

#EmissionsPolicy

#Deglaciation

#LandscapeChanges?

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification#Extinction

#FoodSecurity

#HabitatInundation

#EmissionsPolicy

#Deglaciation

#LandscapeChanges?

#WaterResources

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification#Extinction

#FoodSecurity

#HabitatInundation

#EmissionsPolicy

#Deglaciation

#LandscapeChanges?

#WaterResources

#GlobalWarming#ExtremeWeather

#SeaLevelRise

#OceanAcidification

#FoodSecurity

#HabitatInundation

#EmissionsPolicy

#Deglaciation

#LandscapeChanges?

#WaterResources

#Extinction

?

!

2014

!

2024

!

2034

!

2044

!

2054

!

2064

!

2074

!

2084

!

2094 ?Avatar (2009)

!

2094 ?Black Mirror (2011 - )Her (2013)

Children of Men (2006)

!

Q U E S T I O N ?

©MrWallpaper.com

!

Q U E S T I O N ?

©AnimalPictures123.org

#River

Work Cited Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2000). Summary for Policymaker Emission Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. !Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2001). Working Group I: The Scientific Basis. IPCC. !Johnson P.L., Whipple K. X., and Sklar L.S. (2010). Contrasting bedrock incision from snowmelt and flash floods in the Henry Mountains, Utah. Geological Society of America Bulletin. !

Credits ©TrekEarth ©Wikipedia ©Interactive Jungle ©Know The Lies

#GlobalWarming

#River

Frances Lin Undergraduate student Dept. of Earth and Space Sciences yuchun90@uw.edu

©MrWallpaper.com

©AnimalPictures123.org