The World in 2029

World Tourism Forum Lucerne

Rohit Talwar CEO

Fast Future April 23rd 2009

rohit@fastfuture.com

Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766

Mob +44 (0)7973 405145

What do they Have in Common?

They all started in an economic downturn

81%81% 76%76%

62%62% 80%80%

Demographic Destinies Over 2 billion more people in 40 years –

Demographics is Driving Economics

1998

445 665

769

5266

4034

731

965

339

572

Source : United Nations2008 2050 Source: UN

Changing European Ethnicity

Life Redefined – Lifespans are Increasing

Food – Up or Salty?

Politics gets Complex

Economic Power Shifts

The Top 20 in 2025?

Source: www.gs.com

How will the Downturn Develop?

US Bank Exposure to Default RiskDerivates as % of Risk Capital Q408

Love is in the Air

Road to Nowhere

Suspicious Minds

Dancing in the Dark

GDP Growth India and China

8-10%

6-7%

1-2%

Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%

GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

Prepare for Alternative Scenarios

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg

Sustainability – Hope Fulfilled?

Don’t Break What you Can’t Fix“For too long, environmentally-friendly technology and issues about the environment have been seen as a corporate social responsibility issue and not an opportunity to create new wealth in the future. Governments alone cannot solve the problems we face unless the capitalist world invests in a sustainable future.”

Sir Richard Branson.

Virgin Atlantic

http://www.easier.com/view/News/Motoring/Saab/article-110953.htmlhttp://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/Admin/ImageGallery/BizBuzzMedia/Rob%20Coppinger/Virgin-low-res.jpg

http://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/Admin/ImageGallery/BizBuzzMedia/jackiet/Silverjet%20plane%20taking%20off.jpg

Don’t Make What you Don’t Need

From requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation and demobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics

Masdar – Tomorrow’s Energy Blueprint?

Image sources: http://www.outnext.com/on/2007/05/masdar_city_gre.html

Masdar in Abu Dhabi completes in 2015 as one of the first planned eco-cities – the solutions developed could be rolled out globally. Could you be part of that?

Opening Up Education

Transforming Healthcare

Rethinking Infrastructure

Telephony• Voice• Messaging• SIM card• Phonebook• Ring Tones• Security

Connectivity• Cellular• Up to 14 bands• WLAN/BT• GPS• NFC• FM

Data/Enterprise• 100Mbps• Email• IMS• Browsing• VPN• PIM• Ecommerce• Payments

Software• Protocols• Middleware• Applications• User Interface• Minimize fragmentation

Multimedia• Camera 8-16M• Camcorder• 24M Color Display • Memory (160GB)• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out• Games

(50-100M Tps)• DRM

Technology – The World in your Hand?

The Only Way to Fly?The Only Way to Fly?

Society – me, we or all of us?

http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg

The Middle East – Against the Wind?

US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025

170 million Tourists by 2020

Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012

Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025

1130 new aircraft by 2030

Airlines in Crisis

http://www.papermag.com/blogs/air-india-new-livery4.jpg

Airports - Endangered Species?

http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg

Promise Fulfilled?

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpg

What does the timeline of developments look like for your

key markets?

Conclusions - Designing the Future

• Restricting entry will become the issue

• Eco-political risks rising

• Technology will transform experiences

• New business models must evolve

• Sustainability in question