Robert C. Stroh, Sr., DirectorShimberg Center for Affordable HousingUniversity of Florida

14 September 2005

FAR Legislative Strategy Session

Shimberg Center

Established in 1988 – F.S. 1004.46Activated 1989Business lines

Teaching – Residential developmentHousing Policy & ProgramsHousing TechnologyFlorida Housing Data Clearinghouse

Contacts

Toll free 800-259-5705 Web site www.shimberg.ufl.edu

Housing data Bill O’Dell, Asst. Dir.billo@ufl.edu

Policy & Programs Anne Williamson, Asst. Dir.arwill@ufl.edu

Housing technology Bob Stroh, Directorstroh@ufl.edu

Florida Housing Data

Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse began four years ago with joint funding from the Florida Housing Finance Corporation (FHFC) and the Shimberg Center.

The Clearinghouse provides a common reference point for the health of Florida’s housing stock.

The Clearinghouse makes fact-based decision-making possible relative to housing.

Housing in Florida

Two Florida markets:

Large urban & coastal counties

Small rural counties

Affordability factors:

Household incomes

Housing prices

Mortgage rates

Affordability Factors

Household Incomes

Housing Prices

Mortgage Rates

Regions: South / Central / North Florida

Examples: Palm Beach/Tampa-St.Pete/Duval

Median Household Incomes

Median Household Incomes

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

Palm Beach Hills/Pinell Duval

Hou

seho

ld in

com

e

1990

2000

2004

Household Incomes

Median income increased in all but five counties 1990-2000

Losers: Brevard (0%), Hardee (-1%), Hendry (-2%), Miami-Dade (-4%), and St. Lucie (-1%)

Big Winners: Dixie (19%), Holmes (22%), Jefferson (20%), St. John’s (28%)

Occupation/Employment Groups

Ability to find affordable housing

Occupation/Employment Groups Service workers: Mechanics, Secretaries, Bartenders, Retail,

Housekeeping, Receptionists, Security, Tellers, Waiters. Construction: Laborers, Electricians, Plumbers, Carpenters,

Painters, Truck drivers. Finance: Accountants, Financial planners, Insurance agents,

Credits analysts. Public Service: Firemen, Police, Postal carriers Managers: Engineering, Food service, Lodging, Construction

Single-family Home Choices

Wage as Portion of Qualifying Wage for SF Home

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.6

Service Constr Financial Pub Serv ManagerPort

ion

of Q

ualif

ying

Wag

e

WPB

Tampa/StP

Jax

2-bdrm Apartment Option

Wages as a Portion of Rent for 2-bdrm FMR

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Service Constr Financial Pub Serv ManagerPo

rtio

n o

f m

edia

n-w

age

wo

rker

WPB

Tampa/StP

Jax

Affordability Factors Household Incomes Housing Prices Mortgage Rates

Florida House Price Appreciation(adjusted for inflation)

Year InflationApprec

1971-80 8.11 1.41

1981-90 4.51 -1.50

1991-00 2.76 0.21

2001-03 1.94 6.81

2003-prelim 1.88 7.16

House Price Real Appreciation

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

71-'80 81-'90 91-'00 01-'03 03-prel.Ap

prec

iatio

n ra

te

Indexes

Indexes used to relate housing price to household income

Interpreting Indexes require caution: Index is misleading when wide variation present

Truncated data sources are misleading

Affordability Index

Affordability Index = (Median family income/Qualifying income) x 100

Higher index value > Easier to afford median priced home

Lower index value > Harder to afford median priced home

Index indicates relative changes within a county over time and relative affordability of housing across counties

Affordability Index Trends

Affordability Index

60708090

100110120130140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Ind

ex

va

lue

WPB

Tampa-St Pete

Jax

Affordability Factors Household Incomes Housing Prices Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates

I’ll leave that up to you to deal with!

Housing Need Indicator

Low Income/Severely cost-burdened Households at or below 80% AMI Paying more than 50% for mortgage or rent

The Clearinghouse provides current estimates and projections for 2002-2025

Affordable Housing Market

Households: Cost burdened/Below 80% AMI

County 2005 2015 2025Palm Beach 32474 40685 50300Hills/Pinnellas 39441 46317 53941Duval 11468 13643 16096

Affordable Housing Need in Florida

Tenure 2005 2015 2025Owner 345,654 424,482 514,685Renter 381,824 439,371 500,122

Households below 80% AMI with Over 50% Paid for Housing - Florida

The Affordable Home Market

Major Challenges Finding qualified buyers – work with community-based

non-profit to screen applicants

Assembling up-front cost – SHIP money helps in many counties

Homebuyer Training – Work with non-profit or county extension office

Florida Housing Data

Visit the Clearinghouse web site…

www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu

or

Contact the Shimberg Center at 800-259-5705

County/City Comparisons

Projected Construction Demand, 2025 Jefferson County 613

Lafayette County 862

Gulf County 925

Hamilton County 989

Orange County 236,720

Miami Dade County 279,813

Palm Beach County 286,862

Broward County 420,578

More Housing Data

HH head age HH Income HH Family size by age HH Tenure

----------------------------------

2000 Census data for consolidated plan

AHNA – for use in preparation of housing element

2000 Census for annual PHA plan for HUD

Housing by County/city Mortgage cost Cost burden Values Age/Condition/Size Projected SF/MF demand SF & Mfgr sales/yr Condo sales yr & price

Geographic Displays

2002 Median Single Family Sales Price