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‘Road Investment Strategy’
Alongside the Autumn Statement on 3 December, the Government will publish its first Road Investment Strategy - a workplan for the Highways Agency as it is turned into a government-owned company. New road projects are being investigated all over the country for these plans.
Route StrategiesSince 2013, the Highways Agency has been reviewing all its roads via 18 Route (or ‘Route-Based’) Strategies.
Feasibility StudiesThe Department for Transport is also carrying out six major ‘Feasibility Studies’ looking at these cross-country routes:A303 to the west of EnglandA1 north of NewcastleA1 west of NewcastleA47 across NorfolkA27 on the south coastAcross the Pennines from Manchester to Sheffield
The Highways Agency’s budget for new roads will more than double between 2015 and 2020:
Broken trafficforecasts
Current road policies depend heavily on predictions of future traffic growth, but there is strong evidence that the Department for Transport’s traffic forecasts have overestimated demand since the 1980s, particularly for long-term predictions.The 1989 forecasts predicted growth from 1996 to 2012 of 37%. What actually materialised was just 13%
UK statistics for 2013 show that total car traffic is now the same as in 2003 and the annual distance driven per person was 13% higher in 1995 than in 2013.
Roads to nowhere
Five things to ask your parliamentary candidates:
● Do you agree that new roads create new traffic, and just fill up in the long term?
● Will you help invest more in road maintenance to tackle the huge backlog of potholes, rather than building new roads?
● Do you support a £3 billion green retrofit programme to reduce the community severance and environmental impact of main roads?
● Do you support spending at least £10 per person per year on investment in cycling?
● Will you help take urgent action to reduce air pollution in our towns and cities?
General Election 2015
2002 20202012 2015
£649m £1.0bn
£3.8bn
£1.5bn
£1.9bn
Highways Agency budget
ACTUAL TRAFFIC GB
ACTUAL TRAFFIC ENGLAND
1989 GB FORECAST (HIGH)
1989 GB FORECAST (LOW)
1997 GB FORECAST (HIGH)
1997 GB FORECAST (LOW)
2008 ENGLAND FORECAST
2009 ENGLAND FORECAST
2011 ENGLAND FORECAST
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
2003 = 100
Government forecasts vs actual road traffic
Chart first published in 'Due Diligence, Traffic Forecasts, and the Pension Infrastructure Programme' by Phil Goodwin, Local Transport Today, 13.4.2012Source data calculated by Mitchell, Stokes, Goodwin, IAM Motoring Facts, from DfT original sources.