Post on 27-Dec-2015
Risk Management: Ability to Forecast
Reading
• Brearly & Myers “Principles of Corporate Finance” 6th. Edition, Chapter 27
• Blake “Financial Market Analysis” 2nd. Edition, Chapters 7, Appendix B Chapter 12
• Ormerod “Butterfly Economics”
Categories For Forecasting
• General Economic Trends
• Specific Economic Series
• Prices in Financial Markets
General Economic Trends - Examples
• Population• Age Distribution• Overall Levels of Wealth• An ability to forecast some general trends• Bill Gates People
overestimate the degree of technical change over the next year and underestimate it over the next decade. No company has dominate two phases of the computer revolution
Specific Economic Series
• Some are difficult to forecast
• Growth in GDP
• Average error on UK Treasury Forecasts 1.5%, Average Growth 2%
• For US National Bureau of Economic Research, Commercial Forecasts a Failure
The Determination of Exchange Rates
An Example of Forecasting Financial Markets
Exchange Rate Arrangements 1
Free Managed Fixed Single Float Float Rate Currency
Independent No EconomicEconomic Policy Policy Independence
No Intervention in Intervention in No need toForex Market Forex Markets Intervene for no
Market
Exchange Rate Arrangements 2
Free Managed Fixed SingleFloat Float Rate Currency
US Poland EurolandSwitzerland Brazil LithuaniaRomania Belarus Barbados
Keeping Countries at Parities
• Using Reserves
• Running the Economy
• Interest Rate Adjustments
• Strongest Economy sets Policy
Problems of Forecasting Financial Markets
Price
Time
Price
t0 t1
a
a
b
c
c
Efficiency of Financial Markets
• Information is incorporated into pricePast Price InformationPublicly Available InformationAll Information
• Transactors in Markets on Average Should not be able to obtain abnormal returns
Theories of Exchange Rate Determination/Forecasting
• Fundamental - Economic Theories
• Technical - Psychological/Graphical
Forecasting the Future
• Fundamental Analysis -Underlying Economic Factors -Long Term
• Technical Analysis- Peoples Behaviour
- Patterns are Replicated- Revealed By Charting Data- Short Term
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
• Flows Approach to Forecasting - Forecasts Elements in Balance of Payments
• Asset Based Forecasting - Based on Choices on Assets - An evaluation of the value of the outstanding stock of a currency
Asset Pricing Theories - Monetary Theories
Asset Based Approaches 13. P = SP* Law of One Price Absolute
Purchasing Power Parity Theory
Price of Big Mac in Dollars April 1996
USA 2.36Argentina 3.00Britain 2.71Japan 2.70Switzerland 4.80Russia 1.93Poland 1.44China 1.15
Law of One Price Criticisms
• Justified on Grounds of Trade Flows
• You can’t trade Big Macs
• Many goods not traded - Roof Tiles, Haircuts
• 90% of exchange rate transactions not trade related so price of goods not a consideration
• “Rip Off Britain”
Relative Purchasing Power Parity
1. E( St) = E(Pt+1) - E(P*t+1)
Real Exchange Rates Fairly Stable in Longer Run
In Short Run Real Rates Exhibit Less Stability
(Note from here on P is used to denote inflation not price levels)
Relationship Between Spot and Forward Markets - Interest Rate
Parity
2. (1 + i) = (1 + i*) F S
3. F - S = (i - i*) Approximately equal (i - i*) S 1 + i*
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
4. Ft,1 = Et(St+1)
5. Ft,1 - St = E St+1 - St = i - i* St St
International Fisher Effects
6. it = Et(Pt+1) + Et(rt+1)
Real Interest Rate Parity
7. E(rt+1) = E(r*t+1)
6. E St+1 - St = E(Pt+1) - Et(P*t+1) St
Asset Pricing Models - Dornbush
• Unexpected Monetary Expansion
• Interest Rate Falls
• Covered Interest Rate Parity
• Forward Premium
• Expect Rates to Rise
• Must be Overshooting
Asset Pricing Exchange Rate Forecasting
• What is the source of differential rates of Inflation ?
• Monetary Expansion - Increases in Aggregate Demand
• Issues of Time Lags and Adjustment Processes
• Role of Government - UK 1992
Example of Econometric Specification
10. St = a0 + a1mt + a2 m*t + a3yt +a4y*t + a5(it - it*) +a6st-1
Estimate equation then forecast RHS variables for forecastprofile of Exchange Rate
Technical Analysis
Discernible Trends can be identified which depend on
Investors Attitudes
A Bag of Tools
Typical Market CyclePrice
Time
a
b c
d
Resistance and Support Levels
Price
Time
Resistance
Supporta
Head and ShouldersPrice
Time
Elliot WavesPrice
Time
1
2
3
4
5
a
b
c
Chartists Also Consider
• Trends
• Trading Volumes
• Moving Averages
Evaluation of Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Evaluation
• Fundamental Longer Term - Can one say what is the correct exchange rate ?
• Technical Short Term - One can make returns on Technical Analysis of Forex Markets
• However what is the correct tool is a problem with Technical Analysis
Exchange Rates
• Determined in Financial Markets
• Where floating may be very difficult to predict since Financial Markets Efficient
• Fundamental Theories Better in the Long Run
• Technical Theories Better in Short Run
• There may be Adjustment Issues
Concluding Remarks
• May be aware of overall trends as for example stocks
• Short term movements appear to be more intractable