Risk Identification and PlanningSarah Klobe Technical Project Manager

Agenda

• 10 PBED• 10 Risk Management Process

Overview• 70 Risk Identification

• 15 Break

• 60 Risk Qualification• 60 Risk Response Plan• 15 PBED - Feedback/Debrief

Risk Management Process Overview

• Risk Management Plan• Risk Identification• Risk Qualification • Risk Quantification• Risk Response Planning• Risk Monitoring and Controlling

Risk Identification

• Risks can be good or bad!• Risk Identification Tools• Charter• WBS• Network Diagram

• Write well-defined risks• Be Creative• Do not fill in Probability, Impact or

Category• DO NOT SOLVE!!!

Risk Identification

Writing a Well-Defined Risk• Follows the “Cause-Risk-Effect” format

– Due to (definitive cause), (uncertain event) may occur which would/could/may lead to (effect)

Risk Identification

• Identify as many risks as possible• What are risks related to this project

as a whole?• What are the related risks for each

task?• What are the risks by category?• Be creative• 70 minutes• Reminder – Do NOT solve!

Risk Qualification

• Probability – the likelihood a risk will occur

• Impact – the effect the risk will have on the project if it occurs

• Risk Ranking – Probability x Impact

Risk Qualification

• Goal – Identify the Top Risks vs. Non-Top Risks

• Place your risks on the Probability & Impact Chart

• Once all risks have been placed, Review risk ratings and mark risks you want to discuss

Risk Qualification

Impact Scale:10 Project Failure

9 Over budget by 40% or project delayed by 40%

8 Over budget by 30% to 40% or project delayed by 30% to 40%

7 Over budget by 20% to 30% or project delayed by 20% to 30%

6 Over budget by 10% to 20% or Project delayed by 10% to 20%

5 Slightly over budget

4 Large increase in time required but within budget

3 Medium increase in time required

2 Small increase in time required

1 No real impact

Risk Qualification

• Identify Facts• Probability > 8• Must account for these in project planning

• Identify Threshold• Logical break in risks

• Identify Watch List• Risks that fall below the threshold

Risk Response Plan

• Eliminate risk before it happens

• Contingency Plan - IF the risk happens then do this

• Fallback Plan - IF the Contingency plan is not effective then do this

Risk Response Plan

• Risk Trigger• An early warning sign that a risk has occurred or

is about to occur

• Risk Owner• A person who is assigned to watch for triggers

and is responsible for carrying out the risk response plan if the risk occurs

• Risk owners have valuable insight into risk analysis as well as planning response

Risk Response Plan

Name Description

Mitigate the Probability Reduce the likelihood that the event will occur

Mitigate the Impact Reduce the effect if the event does occur

Avoid Eliminate the cause

Accept Do nothing

Transfer Assign risk to someone else by sub-contracting or purchasing insurance

Feedback/Debrief

• What did you like?• What didn’t you like?• How could this process be improved?• PBED

• Thank you!!