Post on 21-Jan-2021
Jeffrey K. HassDepartment of Sociology & Anthropology
University of RichmondUniversity of Richmond, VA
Faculty of Economics, Dept. of Economic TheorySt. Petersburg State University
St. Petersburg, Russia
jhass@richmond.edu
Resilience of the Simple? Lessons about Order from the
Blockade of Leningrad
Onecity:• Brutalwar,noclearendorvictoryinsight.Uncertainty&institutionalstrain.Coldwinter,extremefoodscarcity,farfromcompetentelite.
• TrulyonebigPrisoners’Dilemma
Wasthis:• 1917Petrograd(oneequilibriumofthePD):orderunravelshereandthroughouttheRussianempire?
• Leningradin1941-42,theBlockade(otherequilibriumofthePD):finebalancebetweendecayandresilience(byitsfingertips)?
Shocksfromaboveà survivalincentivesbelow:• Scarcefoodà shiftsincentives• Benefitsofstrategicinnovations(forsurvival,gain,etc.)becomegreater thanforobedience,i.e.cost/benefitcalculusofobedienceversusopportunismordefectionshifts,withinthestateandbetweenstateandothers
• Evenconcentrationofresourcesthatcreatesdependencypowerandlegitimacynowaweakpointininstitutionalcoherenceandauthority.
Forcesfordisaggregationathigherlevels
• Bureaucraticfailure(orbureaucraticfubar)– Informationandinstitutionaloverload– Mismatchofskillsandcompetencies– Fiascoofevacuationsà 3millionsoulsinBlockadering
• Institutionalcompromise:insideropportunism– Insidersusepositionsto“privatize”resources(food,etc.)– Undercutsinstitutionalauthority(dependencypower)
• Competingnodesofdependency(shadowmarkets)– Competingnodesofdependency,orientationorloyalty?
à Allthisinasystemsetupforwar!
Whatheldthingstogetheratthetop?Resilienceofthesimple
• Coherenceand“will”andcontextElitecoherentenough tocoordinatepolicies.Haveenough coercion&capitaltobeofsomerelevance.E.g.NKVDnotabandoningelite
• ParasitismShadowentrepreneursdraininginstitutionalefficacyalsoneedthoseinstitutions(state)
ConclusionsontheCommandingHeights
Hierarchyandcentralizationà risksof• Institutionaloverloadandbureaucraticfailure• Structure+incentives=opportunism• Asifdisaggregationtoanequilibriumwithenoughresilience,withoutsurrenderingallcoherence—i.e.devolutiontonewequilibriumofresilience.(Yetnewinertiamightsustainoracceleratedisaggregation;notin1941-42Leningrad,butsoin1917Petrograd.)
• Decenteredsystemsmighthaveflexibilitytouselocalknowledgeandinitiative.(SimilartoFrenchversusGermanarmiesinWorldWarII,ala JamesQ.Wilson.)
• Notdesiredstrategicdecision—ratherfaitaccompli
TheStoryBelow:AnchoredinEmpathy&Distance
Survival&uncertaintyà Prisoners’Dilemma(savemyskinorothers’skins?).Whatbalancesthem?• AdamSmith:empathy• GaryBeckeronlove:Otherinmy“utility”(self)• ProspectTheory:risk-aversion• Anchoring:weanchorselvesaswellasexpectationsinsocialrelationsimbuedwithempathy&meaningà anchorusinotherfields
Empathy,Distance,Dignity
• Distance:visibility/knowledgeof(suffering)Other=realperson(notabstractorthreat).Easiertostealfromfacelessbureaucracyorstrangerthankin
• Empathy:Countertointerests:Otherasself.
• Dignity:Whysurvive?Issurvivaljustphysical?(Thiscomesupwithdeath,class,andtheodicies.)“Rationalaction”feelscompelled
• Additup:attractive,ordering forces
Anchoringandvalences
• Senseofselfand“theOther”(SimonedeBeauvoirmeetsGaryBecker)à risk-aversionvis-à-visthisOtherwhoispartofmy“self”
• Example:gender—womenandchildrenmothersó childrenó teachers
Empathy(helplesschildren)+senseofselfanchoredinchildren—thechildlinksfieldsofhome&schoolorwork
Conclusionsfrombelow
• Justasforhigher-levelorder,theremightbeprimordialequilibriumgroundedinempathy,distance,anchoring
• Empathy&risk-aversion:wearecreaturesoforder.(Howthisleadstopower,structures,etc.isanotherstory)
Overallthoughts
• Disaggregationfrombureaucraticfailure,possiblytolower-levelequilibrium
• Centrifugal(opportunism)canalsobecentripetal(parasitism)
• Lowerlevels:distance&empathy,anchoringselfinOtherssharedbylower-levelfields
Complexityà simplicity?Howgeneralizable?
Entertaininglywildspeculation#1
CentrifugalvscentripetalforcescouldbemodeledasaninvertedU-shapedcurve• x-axis=increasingthreat(uncertainty,suffering)
• y-axis=likelihoodofinnovations(survival,opportunism)thatundermineorder
Entertaininglywildspeculation#2
• Collapseofastar=gravityversuselectrostaticrepulsion.Whateverbalanceà getanovaorablackhole
• Are“complexity”(or“information”)and“empathy”theequivalents—forasocialnovaorblackhole?(Canwefollowtheleadofthegravitymodelofinternat’l trade&usereal“scientific”modelhere?)