Post on 12-Apr-2017
Stephen W. Cheung PhD
Reshaping Hong Kong’sHealthcare
Panel Members
Name Role Fields & InterestsDr. Stephen Cheung Moderator Medical Devices
Dr. Ronald Li Challenger Biotech
Mr. Charlie Hung Panelist Internet, investor
Mr. Jimmy Tao Panelist Food Safety, Biotech
Dr. Nelson Wong Panelist HK Healthcare Practitioner
*Ms Vanessa Cheung (panelist) is unable to attend
Session Objectives
1. Hong Kong’s Healthcare Landscape• What opportunities?• Special case: Aging population services
2. Industrialization candidates• Biotech• Medical Devices
3. Conclusion of Session• Are the above at Tipping Point?• List 3 critical drivers to move forward
Examples of critical driversa. Qualified investmentsb. Government supportc. Cost of doing businessd. Critical masse. Skilled workersf. Market access (HK & China)g. Technology partnersh. Support industriesi. Legal & regulatory issues
% GDP CountriesOver 12% USA (17.1%) – US$2.9 Trillion
9-12% France, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, Finland, Japan, UK
6-8% S. Korea, Taiwan
4-6% HK(5.2%*), China (5.6%), Singapore (4.6%), India, Malaysia
Healthcare Expenditure as % of GDP (2012/2013)
Source: World Bank and HK Gov Health and Food Bureau
*: HK’s expenditure is US$13.6 B, 48% by HK Gov
Demographics (2014-15)Demo groups % of Pop
United States
Boomers (1946-65)Millennials (1981-2000)
76M (24%)83M (26%)
HK* 10-30 yr old30-49 yr old50-69 yr old
1.5M (20.5%)2.2M (31.4%)2.2M (31.3%)
China 15-30 yr old40-50 yr old
250M (18%)280M (20%)
*: Extrapolate from 2011 HK Census
Est aggregate net worth by generation in US
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System – Survey of Consumer Finances, US Census Bureau, JP Morgan Asset Management: data as of Dec 31 for each survey year
Greatest Generation
Baby Boomers
Gen X andMillennials
Boomers have $ !!
HEALTH
MED EQUIPBIOTECH
ETF Performance of Health, Biotech, and Medical Equipment2006-2015
Causes (US CDC) Deaths % HK (HK Gov) China (2012 CCDC)
1. Heart disease 611k 23.5 #3 (13.4%) #2 (21%)
2. Cancer (1.66M new cases) 585k 22.5 #1 (31.3%) #1 (28%)
3. Chronic lower respiratory diseases
149k 5.7 #5 (4.0%) #4 (5%)
4. Accidents 131k 5.0 #6 (4.3%) #5 (3%)
5. Strokes 129k 5.0 #4 (7.5%) #3 (11%)
6. Alzheimer 85k 3.3 #9 (2.3%)
7. Diabetes 76k 2.9
8. Influenza & Pneumonia 57k 2.2 #2 (15.7%)
Top Causes of Death (2013)
Demand• 5-12 linac systems per
millionUS: ~ 5,000 systemsChina: needs 10,000+
~ 2,000 currentUnit price• US$3-6M• Gross Margin: 70%Business investment cycle • 10+ yrs to IPO
Example: Radiation Oncology
Critical Success Factors• Initial adoption• FDA approval• Good ROI for hospitals• Versatility
Benefits• High knowledge
content• Well pay jobs
Example: Radiation Oncology
Linacs per million inhabitants
Source: 2012 Elekta
New cases in the world:~15 M (2015)~20 M (2030)
WHO: Cancer Cases On The Rise in China (2012)
• Report: Africa, Asia, and Central/South America were the hardest hit by cancer
• World registered: 14 M new cases, 8.2 M deaths• China’s new cases: 3.07 M (21.8% of global)
Deaths: 2.2 M (26.9% of global cancer deaths)• China's own statistics: ~3.5 M new cases and 2.5 M
deaths• Most new cancer cases & deaths: liver, esophagus,
stomach and lung
Source: South China Morning Post 02/07/2014
“Only 20% of Chinese cancer
patients now take radiation therapy, while the figure stands at more
than 70%in the US.”
China Daily 11/23/2015
Source: 2012 Elekta
China radiation oncology marketMarket drivers: need of training and education
Technologies on the Horizon: NBIC to CKTS
NBIC(2002 NSF): Convergence ofNano + Bio + Info + Cognitive
Coordinated R&DUS and worldwide
CKTS (2013): Convergence of Knowledge + Technology to benefit Society
1. Boomers: the BIGGEST market in history• Proliferation: Senior care, organ replacements, robotic
prostheses…….
2. Diagnosis and treatment of common illnesses & diseases• Emphasis: Preventive care, minimum intrusion• Personalized medicine on rise: Genomics, customized medication• Coming to market: stem cells, regenerative• Wearable and implantable devices• The body is BIG DATA
3. Service providers• Productivity Tools to Control Cost • What about Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)?
4. Millennials: Will have different experience when they age
Visualize Healthcare - Now to 2030
Stephen W. Cheung PhD
Reshaping Hong Kong’sHealthcare